No the world is not dependent on the US dollar for long…
The Saudi’s are actively looking bingo going away from the “petrodollar”…
For good reason…
Let me put it this way. Everything in finance is about risk. Why do bonds pay less than equities? Because bonds are a contract from the issuer promising you back your principal + interest over a certain time frame and giving you first rights to that money if things go south. Equities promise you nothing other than ownership in the company. Why is the yield curve normally positive? There is risk to you lending your money out over a long period of time compared to a shorter period of time. Why is the yield curve currently inverted? These are not normal times and short-term risks are deemed greater than long-term risks. Pure risk, liquidity risk, speculative risk, inflation risk, credit risk, etc, etc. Risk is also more about risk perception.
People buy US debt because of there is a low risk of not getting their money + interest back. People buy US dollars because there is a low risk of our currency falling off a cliff. Other governments can push their new currency all they want but what they really have to be able to do is convince the world that their currency is less risky than the US dollar and changing the minds of billions of people is not easy. Fun fact, most of the US debt is held by the US. government - medicare, highway, and bank deposit insurance, retirement for military/civil service, about $6.8T. The Fed then owns the second most US debt in the form of Treasuries $6.1T. "Other public debt" is $18.2T. Of that other public debt, no single foreign country owns more than $1.1T.
Our debt service is currently $400B per year or wait for it...a moderate Powerball winning. Key point...all that money is not "lost". People like you and me make money from it and put it back into the economy which gets taxed again and lots of people simply buy more US debt with it. These treasuries have varying maturity dates and so a very predictable debt service schedule. That borrowed money is again used by the US government to fund economic activity. Much of that "debt" is transformed into increased GDP. Want to own more US debt than Japan? - there was a $2.04B Powerball. Can we continue down this road indefinitely, that road being increasing the national debt +20% between 2017 and 2021? No, but this is exactly what I was hearing as a kid in the late 90's and here we are. Somehow we've been able to figure it out and if we can't it will mean the end of the world as we know it. There is no scenario where the US economy collapses and doesn't take down the entire world economy with it. What can I say...I'm an optimist.
Can it still head south? Sure, defaulting on the US debt by not raising the debt ceiling wouldn't be great. Keep reducing inflows by giving tax cuts based on the belief of trickle-down economics. Here's a hint - wealthy people don't share when you give them tax breaks - they just keep more of the money. Keep spending more money on the greatest welfare system in this country, the military - that's directed at defense contractors and not the people in the military. We spend 40% of the total world expenditures on the military. China spends 14%, India 3%, UK 3%, Russia 3%, France 3%, and Germany 1.5%. Continue ignoring health care costs and pretending that the market will contain costs without oversight - health care is sucking Medicare dry. It was $200B per year in 2000 and $700B in 2020.