Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Collapses

Status
Not open for further replies.
The US dollar has a definite value and while the devaluation of the dollar is constant, so is the devaluation of all other currencies, and since many financial transactions in the US require investors to buy US dollars, it doesn't really matter what the absolute value of the US dollar is and all that matters is its value relative to the value of all of the other devalued currencies.

When interest rates rise in the US and foreign investors want in on that sweet US yield or they want to buy US treasuries, they have to sell their local currency and buy US dollars. Since the Federal funds rate basically sets the interest rates for the world and since inflation is basically highein nearly every other major market compared to the US, the US dollar is and will for the foreseeable future remain the currency of choice and thus not "worthless".

Inflation in other countries:
United Kingdom = 10.1%
Australia = 7.8%
Japan = 4.3%
Germany = 8.7%
France = 6.2%
India = 6.2%
China is a special case and has low inflation due to their tight CV-19 restrictions but their economy is struggling with a GDP of only 3% and a target of 5%. They are currently where we and the rest of the world were just after the CV-19 shutdown in mid to late 2020 when demand dropped off a cliff.

The US dollar is far from worthless and the world is stil very much dependent on it.


No the world is not dependent on the US dollar for long…

The Saudi’s are actively looking bingo going away from the “petrodollar”…

For good reason…
 
No the world is not dependent on the US dollar for long…

The Saudi’s are actively looking bingo going away from the “petrodollar”…

For good reason…
Let me put it this way. Everything in finance is about risk. Why do bonds pay less than equities? Because bonds are a contract from the issuer promising you back your principal + interest over a certain time frame and giving you first rights to that money if things go south. Equities promise you nothing other than ownership in the company. Why is the yield curve normally positive? There is risk to you lending your money out over a long period of time compared to a shorter period of time. Why is the yield curve currently inverted? These are not normal times and short-term risks are deemed greater than long-term risks. Pure risk, liquidity risk, speculative risk, inflation risk, credit risk, etc, etc. Risk is also more about risk perception.

People buy US debt because of there is a low risk of not getting their money + interest back. People buy US dollars because there is a low risk of our currency falling off a cliff. Other governments can push their new currency all they want but what they really have to be able to do is convince the world that their currency is less risky than the US dollar and changing the minds of billions of people is not easy. Fun fact, most of the US debt is held by the US. government - medicare, highway, and bank deposit insurance, retirement for military/civil service, about $6.8T. The Fed then owns the second most US debt in the form of Treasuries $6.1T. "Other public debt" is $18.2T. Of that other public debt, no single foreign country owns more than $1.1T.

Our debt service is currently $400B per year or wait for it...a moderate Powerball winning. Key point...all that money is not "lost". People like you and me make money from it and put it back into the economy which gets taxed again and lots of people simply buy more US debt with it. These treasuries have varying maturity dates and so a very predictable debt service schedule. That borrowed money is again used by the US government to fund economic activity. Much of that "debt" is transformed into increased GDP. Want to own more US debt than Japan? - there was a $2.04B Powerball. Can we continue down this road indefinitely, that road being increasing the national debt +20% between 2017 and 2021? No, but this is exactly what I was hearing as a kid in the late 90's and here we are. Somehow we've been able to figure it out and if we can't it will mean the end of the world as we know it. There is no scenario where the US economy collapses and doesn't take down the entire world economy with it. What can I say...I'm an optimist.

Can it still head south? Sure, defaulting on the US debt by not raising the debt ceiling wouldn't be great. Keep reducing inflows by giving tax cuts based on the belief of trickle-down economics. Here's a hint - wealthy people don't share when you give them tax breaks - they just keep more of the money. Keep spending more money on the greatest welfare system in this country, the military - that's directed at defense contractors and not the people in the military. We spend 40% of the total world expenditures on the military. China spends 14%, India 3%, UK 3%, Russia 3%, France 3%, and Germany 1.5%. Continue ignoring health care costs and pretending that the market will contain costs without oversight - health care is sucking Medicare dry. It was $200B per year in 2000 and $700B in 2020.
 
Last edited:
In a nutshell.

62B5B386-E85A-4AE0-8987-370BD2D7F1E2.webp
 
$500k per bank for a joint account is a pretty sizable amount for regular expenses. Most 9 and 10 figure net worth types don’t have it in cash. It’s usually in stocks or other investments/business interests. Brokerage accounts have a money market for cash balances and if large cash purchases need to be make they can just wire funds out of that. This is very rare that a bank fails and not a huge concern for many individuals, wealthy or not. Splitting a hundred million would take 200 different banks to keep joint account holders under FDIC limits. Probably not worth the hassle and unlikely that someone would have that much in cash.
I think most large worth individuals have most of it in property, or investments, with a professional fiduciary money manager. Lots of muni bonds (tax exempt, of course), real estate, etc. IMO that's why so many real estate transactions here in Cincinnati are by OOS corporations-they're looking for someplace to park their $$$.
 
Who remembers this? This was not all that long ago. Another big pump job.



Yes, this one I remember but forgot about it until your post.
What drives me nuts about him and others sometimes is his pick of high P/E valuation stocks.
I dont see these people as geniuses. More like actors AFTER a stock makes a move, dress it up to make it look like they were there.
Its really just a show and I think many people can picks sold stocks with solid earnings and do just as well.
My problem is when it is a high valuation stock they put people at risk because you hear all the wonderful things but not th other side of the story and has been a big sticking point for me as you know with one of those stocks he has on the board in your first video (it starts with "T")
Gosh, why is anyone touching that stock or better said why were they when it was selling over 100% higher? Where are the excuses now and why no warnings that T is in the same business as another dozen companies? I dont get the special status. Yes, they were the pioneers of the new "engine" but where were the warnings that everyone else on the planet is now going to make them?

I dont know, its early, still drinking my coffee and not sure if I am explaining myself.
 
More dominos will be falling very soon.
I have to admit, its interesting and I am blindsided by the stupidity of people that make more money in one month or year that I may make in my lifetime *LOL*
These people so arrogant and money flow so easy that they dont take precautions and diversify billions of dollars in corporate operating income?
Hey, Im dumb! But guess what? I could have worked for these companies and protected them far better by not feeling "cool" keeping my entire companies cash flow in a bank just because it has the word "Silicon" in it.
16th largest bank only because those very people were so ignorant. Did they every think to spread out a little to the big national banks that we all know the names for a little diversification ??

Honesty, I can only laugh about it. I am going to be VERY curious, since Tesla is mostly made up of non institutional investors. I wonder how many of them will (or will not) be affected by seeing the Tesla name up on Cramers board as he was promoting SVB. Will they make a dash? I have no idea.

We live in interesting times, hey, I got an idea! Let's add another 20 Trillion onto the national debt for the next crisis!
 
Good idea but I think it’s going to be used to scare people into digital currency.
Maybe one day ... my little slice of bitcoin will turn into something big or not.
...and I have been very lackluster about another one that I have a fair amount, not worth much but both have been steady for the last decade.
If the other one ever took off (and most likely never will, but wont go away either) anyway. I dont want to be one of those stories about it sitting on an unused computer, which it is right now. For years *LOL* I have to get it off the hard drive and trust my wife is going to find the "key" once we settle into our new home. We made sure to put it in a place we wont lose it, wherever that may be. Again, not worth much at all.
but... who knows? one day? Na, most not likely :confused:
 
Last edited:
This just came in:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/crypto...lion-in-usd-coin-after-bank-collapse-1338a80f

A major cryptocurrency operated by Circle Internet Financial Ltd. meant to mimic the value of the U.S. dollar dropped sharply after the company said it had $3.3 billion tied up in the collapsed Silicon Valley Bank.

USD Coin fell below 87 cents on Saturday morning, according to data from CoinDesk. The virtual currency, known as a stablecoin, is designed to trade exactly at $1. It is backed by real U.S. dollars and short-term government debt, and sits at the heart of cryptocurrency trading.

Breaking its peg with the dollar has the potential to send shock waves through the cryptocurrency world still reeling from the collapse of FTX. For crypto traders, the decline in the value of USD Coin is reminiscent of the worst moments of the 2008 financial crisis when money-market funds that most investors treated as the equivalent of cash “broke the buck” in the wake of Lehman Brothers failure.
 
Friday morning I started getting emails from partners asking NOT to send them money.

Never seen that mail before.....the next line was because of the SV bank collapse.

This is bad juju......
 
Yes, we’re going to find the cryptos had a major role in bringing down the SVB, just like packaged junk bonds from sub prime mortgages did damage in 2009.
It will be interesting but if I am understanding it correctly bank funds were tied up in long term bonds or something and couldn't meet the liquid demands ONCE they told investors whey needed to sell some off 2+ billion off to meet demands.
Furthermore they had 42 BILLION in Withdrawals on Thursday. Once the Feds dish the assets out to other banks SVB customers may not be out as much as we think.
I have NO idea if I am thinking correctly just todays thoughts. Im sure not a pretty picture but I am wondering considering the disaster maybe those at risk wont loose as much as we think.

For sure, it will be interesting next week!
 
It will be interesting if Elon Musk is truly considering buying SVB or is he jsut talking out of his hat again.

"Elon Musk tweeted late Friday he was "open to the idea" of buying the failed Silicon Valley Bank."
 
Borrowers loved this bank as they would adapt loan terms when they were unable to pay. This means the bank was carrying bad loans but not accounting for them as bad loans.
 
Doesn't apply to retirement accounts. Also depends if account is jointly held, that could extend FDIC coverage to $500k per institution..
I'm not throwing stones at you, Lubener, but with all this talk of $250K or $500K FDIC insured accounts....great. But when the stuff really hits the fan and the house of cards collapses I have very little confidence that I'll ever see the money I have my IRA/401K accounts. That money exists as nothing more than a line item on a ledger sheet. My cash does not exist.

Scott
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom