Rolex and other high-end time pieces prices

Buying a Rolex or other high-end watch is a lot like buying really expensive golf clubs. I don't see how the market and prices can do anything but crash, and fairly soon.

If you hadn't noticed, few people under about age 40 wear a watch. To check the time, they use their phones. By the same token, golf courses are closing right and left as the golf players age and die. Few under 40 play golf. Eventually the market for expensive watches will dry up as Rolex buyers similarly age and die.

Tip: few of the extremely wealthy, such as the late billionaire Ross Perot, flaunt wealth by wearing Rolexes. To them that's unnecessary spending, and that's how they kept their fortunes.
 
Golf seems as popular as ever in AZ and TX....Rolex has been around along time and sell every watch they make.....some have 35 on a waiting list to buy them. Im 64 and have seen my share of ups and downs and was lucky enough to retire at 49....I did not come from a rich family....we were lower middle class and i had to work to put myself threw school.
Now that you mention it what I have noticed is churches closing and land being sold off. In the under forty crowd ..church related stuff sure has took a hit....in Austin ive seen three torn down this year.
I know lots of under 40 crowd in Austin that have plenty of money to buy 2-3 Ferrari's or Lambo's plus a Rolex or two....My buddy just bought a 18k gold Daytona last month .....plus had a kid and bought a used Ferrari Boxer.....he just turned 41. Most of the ones i know are making some big big bucks.
I dont spend money like they do ( 40 and under) because i dont have it.....I never had kids so have nobody to leave anything to anyway.....I just bought a used 07 Bullitt Mustang with 38k miles and i thought I was doing good in Aug.
Back when i was working i found the harder i worked the more lucky i got....The guy i mentioned above must work 65-70 hours a week and he told me he sleeps only 4-5 hours a day...like i told him Sunday you are lucky to be so young because at 60 you cant go like that....
 
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Urban legend

I have quite a few family members on Wall Street and many are second generation. They don't have billions but they certainly have tens of millions and they all have very nice watches, clothing, houses, vehicles, take really expensive vacations, all their kids go to private school, they belong to multiple country clubs, etc, and they still have tens of millions left over. All their friends are the same...
Second this; The "extremely wealthy/live conservatively" is a bit of a canard. Ross Perot, the amazing man of modest beginnings, also had several aircraft and 5 or so boats, one IIRC he tried mounting a turbine on for more speed. He was an awesome man.

The folks in this bracket that I know, mostly tech wealth, are generally conservatives (not talking politics) in appearance and manner, but do enjoy the nice things in life, such as watches, as they should.

Now I am certainly not in that category, but I have 2 Rolex's, one was a surprise gift from my Parents when I graduated college; was probably 2 weeks pay for Dad and it is one of my most prized possessions. The second is an anniversary present from my Wife.

I don't think I have worn either one more than 3 times a month in years.

My Wife did buy me a TAG Heuer GPUSA, knowing I'm a car nut. Probably my favorite, but also rarely worn.
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pic from web
 
I dont understand the fascination with $5K watches other then look at me.
You can get a fake, and see what its like to wear one. My Dad got a fake in Turkey for $50 and just wore it for the rest of their vacation because he needed a watch. He found people do notice it, and on their moderately priced cruise a few wealthier guys stopped to talk to him that probably wouldn't have. He was quick to point out it was a fake which you could tell once you examined it closely, and they had a chuckle, but they still had a good chat.
 
It's worth $15K until no one wants a submariner anymore. FOMO
That's my point. There will always be a market for some bling for people who want to show off, but watches are generally a dying commodity. The younger crowd just isn't into a lot of stuff that older people think is traditional.

I likened expensive watches to golf for a reason. Out my way lots of former golf courses have been converted to housing or are simply lying abandoned and overgrown. Few under 40 play golf, even for business today.

The daily newspaper used to carry a national column on antiques and collectibles on Sunday. For most things the column noted that prices peaked around 2005–2010 and have declined since, sometimes by a lot. The older people who collected or wanted those things were getting rid of them in downsizing or were dying off. Eventually the same trend will hit expensive watches.
 
Second this; The "extremely wealthy/live conservatively" is a bit of a canard. Ross Perot, the amazing man of modest beginnings, also had several aircraft and 5 or so boats, one IIRC he tried mounting a turbine on for more speed. He was an awesome man.
Perot was famous for buying run-of-the-mill Oldsmobiles as daily drivers. Of course, those cars made him less noticeable and helped keep him safer. Just like a Rolex, a Ferrari screams "Rob me!" or "Kidnap me for ransom!"
 
I'm way at the bottom of the barrel with my Timex Expedition and Swiss Army watches. 😖
You can always go lower, there's the classic Casio F91W-1.


 
You can get a fake, and see what its like to wear one. My Dad got a fake in Turkey for $50 and just wore it for the rest of their vacation because he needed a watch. He found people do notice it, and on their moderately priced cruise a few wealthier guys stopped to talk to him that probably wouldn't have. He was quick to point out it was a fake which you could tell once you examined it closely, and they had a chuckle, but they still had a good chat.
You use to be able to buy them openly on Canal street in New York. I think you can still do it but you have to ask around. I think they were like $35 way back when. I got a Tag for a friend of mine but he didn't like wearing it because it looked real and people thought it was real at work. I remember one guy shopping the fakes was yelling out Rolexes for me!

Never bothered getting one for myself.

They last. I've got a SS date sub that I bought in 2000. I've worn it every single day since then. I've welded with it, dug post holes, poured concrete, changed oil and plugs, built engines, ported cylinder heads etc. I never take it off unless I'm water skiing.
Some say the fakes work better than the real thing.
 
I appreciate the high end luxury watches but my practical side would never let me pull the trigger. My only mechanical watch is an $80 Seiko5 and I wear it a lot. I bought a Casio MDV106 Duro divers watch 2 months ago and set it by the world clock the day I received it. It has gained 4 seconds since July 21st. Quartz battery, 120 click screw down crown and case back, unidirectional bezel, wr to 200 meters, basically a poor mans Rolex Submariner only more accurate and for less than $50. Replaced the silicone band with a Barton canvas band and it’s so comfortable I tend to forget I’m even wearing it. BTW, Bill Gates wears the same Casio Duro dive watch.
 
That's my point. There will always be a market for some bling for people who want to show off, but watches are generally a dying commodity. The younger crowd just isn't into a lot of stuff that older people think is traditional.

I likened expensive watches to golf for a reason. Out my way lots of former golf courses have been converted to housing or are simply lying abandoned and overgrown. Few under 40 play golf, even for business today.

The daily newspaper used to carry a national column on antiques and collectibles on Sunday. For most things the column noted that prices peaked around 2005–2010 and have declined since, sometimes by a lot. The older people who collected or wanted those things were getting rid of them in downsizing or were dying off. Eventually the same trend will hit expensive watches.

Dying commodities generally race to the bottom in terms of price, and become easier to purchase.

Rolex sells every watch they make, that can hardly be described as "dying".

Rolexs generally appreciate, have for the last 30 years, and there is zero indication they are unlikely to do so in the future
The labor and raw material component alone is enough to keep the price increasing year to year.
These devices are made by people as much as machines and people want raises.

Your or my feelings or opinion on this matter does not alter this fact.

There are many other watch brands that have stopped appreciating but Rolex is not one of them, which is interesting in the watch community as they are regarded as a top 10 brand, and quite often not in the top 5 or even 10 in some lists.
 
Dying commodities generally race to the bottom in terms of price, and become easier to purchase.

Rolex sells every watch they make, that can hardly be described as "dying".

Rolexs generally appreciate, have for the last 30 years, and there is zero indication they are unlikely to do so in the future
The labor and raw material component alone is enough to keep the price increasing year to year.
These devices are made by people as much as machines and people want raises.

Your or my feelings or opinion on this matter does not alter this fact.

There are many other watch brands that have stopped appreciating but Rolex is not one of them, which is interesting in the watch community as they are regarded as a top 10 brand, and quite often not in the top 5 or even 10 in some lists.
I think they make so few of them that even if demand is lower, people do become interested in them as they get older and now that the prices are high, probably a lot of people are just jumping in now as an investment and will keep the price propped up. Sorta like bitcoin, more people jumping in propping up the price. Although with bitcoin, they claim the bubble will pop at some point, but it's been going for years and may have years to go before that happens.

I think at one point stamp and coin collecting were about the same but now stamp collecting is down. But coin collecting is still strong.
 
Dying commodities generally race to the bottom in terms of price, and become easier to purchase.

Rolex sells every watch they make, that can hardly be described as "dying".

Rolexs generally appreciate, have for the last 30 years, and there is zero indication they are unlikely to do so in the future
The labor and raw material component alone is enough to keep the price increasing year to year.
These devices are made by people as much as machines and people want raises.

Your or my feelings or opinion on this matter does not alter this fact.

There are many other watch brands that have stopped appreciating but Rolex is not one of them, which is interesting in the watch community as they are regarded as a top 10 brand, and quite often not in the top 5 or even 10 in some lists.

Anyone who thinks watches are "dying" I can pretty safely say doesn't know much about the current market.

Wristwatches now are HOT, and a lot of them(vintage and modern) are being bought by guys my age(early to mid 30s). I don't see prices coming down any time soon.

Aside from that, I've seen more people my age drawn into "nice" watches by the Apple watch and other "wearable tech."

Fashion brands are not going to hold their value, but I'd expand your list to more than 4 brands that will hold their value. Rolex is at the top of the list. Patek is certainly there, and in fact you can't even get on the list to BUY the more prestigious Pateks(complications namely) without building a "portfolio" of lower end Pateks. Omegas always have the name recognition and timeless design. A. Lange, Chopard, JLC, and probably a few others I don't see losing value any time soon.

In general, luxury goods are HOT now, and as (I think it was you) said earlier in the thread Rolex sells everything they make now.

Also, I find it funny that people here and elsewhere also seem to say they don't "get" buying expensive watches. Some people appreciate high quality goods, and there's a lot of fine manufacturing and engineering that goes into these pieces. They are true marvels. I'd suggest people who don't "get" it just be content with functional inexpensive pieces and let those of us who like nicer watches enjoy our hobby.
 
Out my way lots of former golf courses have been converted to housing or are simply lying abandoned and overgrown. Few under 40 play golf, even for business today.

The Tiger Woods craze and phase is over and there’s less interest.
 
The Tiger Woods craze and phase is over and there’s less interest.

I used to play a lot when I was still in school, basically every day for many, many years. Then life got in the way, but when I started working I still played 15-20 rounds a year. Then I found some other interests, and don't have as many people to play with anymore. It's a solid 6 hours I'll be gone from the house and depending on the course is anywhere from $80-140 by the time you buy lunch and a beer afterwards. I've played one round in the last two years... I think I am the poster child as to why the game is becoming less popular. I do still watch on TV and if I had some good buddies to go with more often, I probably would, but no more than maybe five or six rounds a year.
 
Anyone who thinks watches are "dying" I can pretty safely say doesn't know much about the current market.

Wristwatches now are HOT, and a lot of them(vintage and modern) are being bought by guys my age(early to mid 30s). I don't see prices coming down any time soon.

Aside from that, I've seen more people my age drawn into "nice" watches by the Apple watch and other "wearable tech."

Fashion brands are not going to hold their value, but I'd expand your list to more than 4 brands that will hold their value. Rolex is at the top of the list. Patek is certainly there, and in fact you can't even get on the list to BUY the more prestigious Pateks(complications namely) without building a "portfolio" of lower end Pateks. Omegas always have the name recognition and timeless design. A. Lange, Chopard, JLC, and probably a few others I don't see losing value any time soon.

In general, luxury goods are HOT now, and as (I think it was you) said earlier in the thread Rolex sells everything they make now.

Also, I find it funny that people here and elsewhere also seem to say they don't "get" buying expensive watches. Some people appreciate high quality goods, and there's a lot of fine manufacturing and engineering that goes into these pieces. They are true marvels. I'd suggest people who don't "get" it just be content with functional inexpensive pieces and let those of us who like nicer watches enjoy our hobby.
As I stated ....here in Austin TX the 30-40 crowd I know buy high end cars (Ferrari and Lambo's) and have high end car clubs.
They have road tours to CO and I see no decrease in buying high end autos. Last month I rode with my buddy in his 455 to a car and coffee in Austin. I was wearing a Blancpain FF and had several younger guy ask me about.....most were wearing Rolex,Omega and Breitlings.....
I think perhaps it were you live vs anything else....Austin a under 40 town and im out of place their at 64 but their retirement area's popping up .....Georgetown up north has several.
Austin has turned into Texas premier city....Houston was the late 70's then Dallas area in the 80's and 90's
I dont know that much about San Antonio except i love the river walk in the fall.
 
I got my Rolex in Mexico for $50.

Watches are a rich mans speculative asset. They could continue to go up a lot or correct downward. If you really like watches and don't mind the volatility then why not have a few nice ones?

Thankfully, i am not a watch guy.
 
I'm not interested in watches as an investment. Watches are tools made to be worn and used - at least the kind I have. It's nice if a watch holds its value but since I don't buy with the intent to sell or flip I could not care less about depreciation and appreciation. Mechanical movements are fascinating. The refinements that have gone into the development of mechanical movements since the first pocket watch was made in the early 16th century are absolutely amazing. Many people have no idea that a wristwatch may contain several hundred precision parts. It's also amazing that some movements, for example the very basic Seiko NH35, are completely assembled by robots.
 
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