We will soon see the Q4 2022 numbers. They may be disappointing but I'll bet they will also be the envy of all other automakers, ICE and EV.
That is the problem with a high flying stock at the time selling at close to 90 times earnings while the others are selling at 5 to 9 times earnings.
Tesla is just getting down closer to an industry average. All the hype, built in expectations have come to a halt, all the new factories coming on line and Wall Street noticed, ummm, the factories are not being used to the full capacity because he cant sell the cars. Barely any more back orders, lay offs, over capacity.
Factories are working at less than full capacity, I heard rumors of one running approx 20%. So with all the high hopes gone the stock price is coming down closer to what it should have been all along.
Still at an outrageous P/E of 38 times earnings, maybe we will see a stock price in the future at some point of 60 with a P/E of 17 times earnings which is still double the industry average.
Just my thoughts and that of others. No secret in here Ive been calling for this all year. There is danger in a high flying stock that is way out of the industry average on everything in a business that does nothing different that a dozen other companies do. Kind of like a new pair of blue jeans hitting the market, it's a hit one day until all the others catch up.
Here the stock is getting hammered and losing USA market share with every new product realized by its dozen other competitors which is a completely normal cycle in an over crowded field. Been saying all year, "its just a car" and wow, by the year 2025 people will be walking into USA showrooms all over the country comparing models of ICE and EV vehicles but they wont be walking in a Tesla showroom because there are none.
Yeah, know, I have even thought of buying Tesla stock now that it is down to this level but I remind myself of trying to catch a falling knife, heck like anyone, I can change my mind one day but that is looking way less likely. I feel bad for people that bought in the 200 to 400 range, I do and dont get me wrong, its not like I myself never had a loser, this one at that price I did see.
You mention the "envy of all other makers" that is only in the mind of a person who loves the company. From an investment standpoint an investor would ask, we do we go from here? and already the Tesla story has faded, they cant sell the amount of cars that their factories can produce. Meanwhile all the other makers are not only going to be offering their typical ICE vehicles but also EV vehicles. So which is better?
Tesla at 90 and now 40 times earnings and a whole host of legacy makers at 4 to 6 times earnings.