One step away from the Stone Age

[OVERKILL]

Question for you O/K … I’m going to hand you $50 billion to spend on the Texas grid … GO !

Are we limited to what's currently certified for deployment in the US?

1. Analyze what's available for expanding hydro capacity and what a reasonable expansion of that might look like if viable.
2. Expand the two existing nuclear plants using the most cost-effective design available.

AFCR CANDU's would probably be at the top of my list but wouldn't be for an American doing the same plan. 4x of them have a higher installed capacity than the two units at Vogtle and a pair only cost $4 billion to construct in China. Even if we double that for American deployment that's $16 billion for 3,060MW vs $25 billion for 2,500MW. So, if we added 8 units (4 per plant) we are $32 billion into your 50 and have added 6,120MW of new nuclear, more than doubling nuclear capacity and bringing it to 11,273MW. This assumes the remaining $18 billion would go into hydro, if it were viable. If not, we'd put that into an additional 3,060MW of nuclear, bringing us up 14,333MW of additional firm capacity and put that $2 billion into something else, maybe PHS.

This would directly reduce gas baseload capacity by almost 15,000MW. Given, on average, gas was short 20,000MW during the events of the 15th, it would have greatly reduced the requirements for demand-side management, likely wholly achievable via shedding some industrial customers and leaving residential areas unaffected. That of course assumes gas isn't further hardened and the same supply disruption were to occur again.

Nuclear would produce 117TWh in this scenario, meaning significant emissions reduction as it would represent ~1/3rd of total annual power generation in the state.

 

[OVERKILL]

It shouldn’t be. It should be to stay warm and lit instead.

But we both know that the goal for mitigating climate change, the GND and the IPCC stuff all revolves around reducing CO2 emissions, so I was operating within that vein

 

[PimTac]

Both. No one person can be 100% ready for a massve quake.

But a person adapts. I’ve been there. Conserving. Rationing. You do what you have to do to sustain life. Decide what is important.

Run scenarios through your mind. In your case the big quake hits and you have no power or water for six weeks. Transportation is stopped. What will you do? It will not be life as usual

Many years ago I had a similar discussion with a coworker who asked what if their house collapsed and buried their emergency supplies? My answer, start digging.

 

[4WD]

Are we limited to what's currently certified for deployment in the US?

1. Analyze what's available for expanding hydro capacity and what a reasonable expansion of that might look like if viable.
2. Expand the two existing nuclear plants using the most cost-effective design available.

AFCR CANDU's would probably be at the top of my list but wouldn't be for an American doing the same plan. 4x of them have a higher installed capacity than the two units at Vogtle and a pair only cost $4 billion to construct in China. Even if we double that for American deployment that's $16 billion for 3,060MW vs $25 billion for 2,500MW. So, if we added 8 units (4 per plant) we are $32 billion into your 50 and have added 6,120MW of new nuclear, more than doubling nuclear capacity and bringing it to 11,273MW. This assumes the remaining $18 billion would go into hydro, if it were viable. If not, we'd put that into an additional 3,060MW of nuclear, bringing us up 14,333MW of additional firm capacity and put that $2 billion into something else, maybe PHS.

This would directly reduce gas baseload capacity by almost 15,000MW. Given, on average, gas was short 20,000MW during the events of the 15th, it would have greatly reduced the requirements for demand-side management, likely wholly achievable via shedding some industrial customers and leaving residential areas unaffected. That of course assumes gas isn't further hardened and the same supply disruption were to occur again.

Nuclear would produce 117TWh in this scenario, meaning significant emissions reduction as it would represent ~1/3rd of total annual power generation in the state.

Yeah, if we can “help” wind and solar … why not help STP … the cooling pond can take two more now … transmission lines already reach major populations
I believe the Colorado River (passes 12 miles from me) has several smaller HE dams. One of the problems now is many rich and powerful people have waterfront property on the central Texas lakes so not sure how that factors in.

 

[michaelluscher]

Those for profit companies do things far more cost affective and efficient then any public utility can.
But if not, campaign to have your state government take over the electric system! Good luck with that! Your government will be so efficient of running the system it will cost you double what it does now. So lets lay off the "for profit" stuff *LOL*

Study Long Island NY when the state took over their system. *L*

LILCO was doing a pretty bad job
LIPA was no angel, but people got rate freezes and rebates vs years of yearly increases
The new private owner (PSEG) seems to be doing a half decent job
...still paying for that **** Shoreham nuclear plant tho
Now I work for a public/private utility, in the NYC metro area, and if we floundered anything remotely like Texas did, we'd be out within the hour
Public Service Commission holds us to a standard and forces accountability, whether we like it or not
You want to keep your franchise and do business? You do as they say
I distinctly remember last July, we were doing an upgrade for service (98° + Humidity) out, digging in the street, and one of the site supervisors was a Texan, explaining how our pizza sucks, our BBQ sucks, how his ranch in Austin has more space for cattle to roam than central park, how us being stifled in the heat made us weak sauce northerners, how John Denver isn't real country (etc...) and how this was all a time/money waste (we were upgrading a main for more capacity in colder weather)

...I'd have some very choice words for that man right now
They had many chances and warnings to prepare with Capex and Opex upgrades, and they never took it
It cost property, it cost resources, most importantly it cost lives
I hope change is made quickly, and those found at fault are held accountable
While they're out there rebuilding, build it better, so that this doesn't happen again

 

[JeffKeryk]

But a person adapts. I’ve been there. Conserving. Rationing. You do what you have to do to sustain life. Decide what is important.

Run scenarios through your mind. In your case the big quake hits and you have no power or water for six weeks. Transportation is stopped. What will you do? It will not be life as usual

Many years ago I had a similar discussion with a coworker who asked what if their house collapsed and buried their emergency supplies? My answer, start digging.

What if the house is on top of him? Or his shovels are under the house?
What if he has health issues and cannot dig?
No man is an island.

I lived through the 7.0 quake and Santa Cruz fires. I had numerous people and their animals in my house. And others simply asking to take a shower. All while the incredible rescue workers, fire departments, police departments and volunteers fought to restore safety.
During the shortages of last year I delivered food and toilet paper to senior friends. My wonderful friend, Edna, 94 with cancer, cannot dig.
I continue to do this; it is a great part of my life.
I also cared for my parents for the past 30 years. They both were able to die in their own home due to the efforts of many.

 

[4WD]

Don’t forget you need water to flush . They say at the first sign of an emergency you should fill all your bathtubs with water.

27,000 gallon tub is full now !!!

 

[OilReport99]

But we both know that the goal for mitigating climate change, the GND and the IPCC stuff all revolves around reducing CO2 emissions, so I was operating within that vein

Understand.

 

[odie]

The windmills in Texas are not the same as those used in colder climate that have special blades . https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottc...ze-de-icing-and-carbon-fiber/?sh=1bdcd2a91f59 . Always comes down to money and ends up being more costly .

 

[4WD]

The windmills in Texas are not the same as those used in colder climate that have special blades . https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottc...ze-de-icing-and-carbon-fiber/?sh=1bdcd2a91f59

But again none of these stories and little girl tweets address the fact that these need full backup … when it’s 100F and electric load is very high … the wind may not blow.
There will be other judgement days … they recently installed 48 spinners on the coast near me …
Cat 4 will test them

 

[OilReport99]

But again none of these stories and little girl tweets address the fact that these need full backup … when it’s 100F and electric load is very high … the wind may not blow.
There will be other judgement days … they recently installed 48 spinners on the coast near me …
Cat 4 will test them

Them Spinners belong to Medieval Chivalry Novels. It is as if Don Quixote predicted the future.

 

[4WD]

Them Spinners belong to Medieval Chivalry Novels.

Ahhh … could be
They obviously they have to be locked in a passive pitch position … so not going to produce power for a while and must be backed up for hurricane periods too …

 

[gathermewool]

Was just thinking about propane for those without fireplaces. The propane exchange places would be sold out fast. The propane filling place near me needs electricity to run it’s filling pump and the guy does not have a generator hooked in.

If we had a major event imminent or I was able to get out early enough, the first thing I’d do is buy as much gas an propane as I could. Unfortunately, that would only last so long, even if confined to one room with minimal load, letting fridges and freezers thaw if the issue is long-term, etc.

Fuel to live, if not comfortably, for a several days. If worse came to worst, my Legacy will get us 400 miles away!

 

[Jetronic]

Yes, we are, imho-- Did you see Texas, or the other stormed in states,,,ok, its boyscout time,,,one colman stove,and an lp gas tank, water and blankets and such, you can figure that out,me, got a Coleman stove, and lantern, water jugs on hand ,toilet paper lol, can goods, if your on meds of some kind get more...yes we are just one step away from the Stone Age, we all live like nothing can go wrong,,,yes I am in that boat,,,what could possibly gone wrong,,,you do remember the toilet paper caper-- that toilet paper deal brought us almost to our knees,,,now that was funny,,,amazing what a priority that was, yes its funny now,,wasn't then..I l carry toilet paper in the car now,,well u never know,,
PS, do not forget to put your oil pan plug back in before pouring your oil in the engine,,,its a thought,lol... dont forget your facemask,,,,mercy sakes.

you carry toiletpaper to use as currency after doomsday?

 

[Jetronic]

They are also banned in many places. Yep, banned. They contribute to particulate air pollution - it's an anti-smog measure.

yes, nobody wants to ban them here yet, or has said it out loud, but there's regular items after the news headlines about particulate matter and wood burning. Seems like they are planting the seed in peoples heads...

Fine dust particles aren't a laughing matter, so people should be made awawre that their actions ultimately cost lives (including their own or loved ones) but as long as industry is also a big PM contributor a ban isn't opportune imo.

 

[4WD]

yes, nobody wants to ban them here yet, or has said it out loud, but there's regular items after the news headlines about particulate matter and wood burning. Seems like they are planting the seed in peoples heads...

Fine dust particles aren't a laughing matter, so people should be made awawre that their actions ultimately cost lives (including their own or loved ones) but as long as industry is also a big PM contributor a ban isn't opportune imo.

We sold our central Texas condo in August … they had banned BBQ pits but we used the fireplace year round either for heat or BBQing meat ,

 

[Jetronic]

done that aswell, grilling fish and such in the fireplace.

 

[Jetronic]

only in winter though! unlike astro's experience, the fireplace heats the house up real well, and the backing plate behind the fireplace circulates water so we can heat the whole house even.

 

[Wolf359]

How much do you want to pay to over engineer things?
You just had a 50 or 100 year storm that could not be predicted, so now you will be over engineered for the next one in 50 to 100 years. I mean, who is to blame for that?
SO now you will pay and be hardened for storms that never happened before.

If you're referring to Texas, you have your facts wrong. This happened in 1989 and again in 2011 and they made the recommendation then to winterize their system. Those were ignored. Those temperatures and conditions aren't a problem in the Northeast because they happen all the time. Although part of the problem in the Northeast is that there isn't enough pipeline capacity so that when there's high demand for gas, the gas power plants have to shut down so people don't freeze in their homes. In that case, it's not an issue with paying for it, it's that it can't get permitted.

 

[PimTac]

What if the house is on top of him? Or his shovels are under the house?
What if he has health issues and cannot dig?
No man is an island.

I lived through the 7.0 quake and Santa Cruz fires. I had numerous people and their animals in my house. And others simply asking to take a shower. All while the incredible rescue workers, fire departments, police departments and volunteers fought to restore safety.
During the shortages of last year I delivered food and toilet paper to senior friends. My wonderful friend, Edna, 94 with cancer, cannot dig.
I continue to do this; it is a great part of my life.
I also cared for my parents for the past 30 years. They both were able to die in their own home due to the efforts of many.

Sometimes things are out of our control. You help your neighbors and friends. That’s the human side of the equation.

I don’t say all this without experience. I’ve been through floods and windstorms. We had recent fires up here in western Washington that were just a couple miles away.

In 2013 I was living out of country. I was prepared just the same as I was in the US. You never know what will happen. That year in October a 7.2 earthquake struck. The epicenter was just 20 clicks from our house. The house made it fine thanks to sturdy construction but roads were impassable, water was cut, and the single grocery store in town collapsed. We adapted. Two meals a day and those were small at that. Water was rationed. We were able to check on our neighbors and they checked on us as well. Then, three weeks later, Super Typhoon Haiyan came through and we were double tested. It was weeks before we had any power in temps in the 90’s with equal humidity.


How many people know how to change the settings on their smartphones to stretch battery life ? For those who don’t know, a good lesson for the day. Make a note of what needs to be done and have it on your phone.