Crude oil was back at $100 in over night trading. As Yogi Berra said “ it ain’t over ‘till it’s over “.
Oil news not good today
- Thread starter Bailey28
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One of the “ in your face “ examples is a shortage of jet fuel going into Europe from Kuwait and others.
What do you mean exactly?
Show me an unbiased factually accurate and by definition true source of crude oil shipments in all of the Middle East.
I remember back in the day, the news reported the news. Now they have to put spin on it to get people riled up so they watch more, thus increasing ad revenue. Much of what I am seeing now is a mild version of covid reporting a few years ago.
I haven't found one. I do track oil markets and have for decades - so from multiple sources:
Iran continues to ship as much oil as ever via Jask terminal - its on the Chinese side of the Hormuz. Skipping Kharg Island mostly. Unconfirmed but I have read in multiple places there shipping as much as ever?
Iran just said they will not shoot at Indian flagged vessels. India was in quite a bind.
A few tankers have run Hormuz anyway - I saw a number of like 6 yesterday? Also Saudi Arabia has a secondary pipeline that goes to the red sea and there trying to push more through there.
Several LNG tankers switched course mid ocean - switching from Europe to Asia via the long route. Asian buyers paying more. Europe is talking about price controls which simply means they won't get any.
Good luck finding anything mainstream.
Estimates are used based on things like shipping traffic (AIS transponder). Even the CIA with their famous but recently defunct factbook used estimates. Then there's the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report but even then how do you know the government numbers are real?
It's almost like you're looking for answers which confirm to your own bias.
A lot of ships in the war zone have turned their AIS off or set it to a false name.
Iran has announced they intend to attack any ship in the Strait of Hormuz except for those going to/from Iran. (Because of this, oil exports from Iran are actually up). Several ships have been hit.
Iran has announced they intend to attack any ship in the Strait of Hormuz except for those going to/from Iran. (Because of this, oil exports from Iran are actually up). Several ships have been hit.
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Huh? Seems like an odd response. I’m doubtful of most all sources. I doubt people here posting know the actuals. And I am not claiming I do!
US "mainstream" news is useless on every topic - so I figured a decade ago. Its propaganda. Choose which side's you want to listen to.
France 24 English Version or Sky news are typically OK for outside Europe. In Europe also bias. Outside Europe they seem like old school journalists - when something happens they send a reporter to ask questions. Novel thought I know.
As for shipping or oil - forget it. Esoteric topics that most people know zero about. Sal Mercogliano "whats going on with shipping" does a youtube summary every night. That covers shipping. Probably Tracy Schuchart on X for oil.
My point is that even the CIA Factbook which was a premier source of information used worldwide relies on estimates.
I can think of perhaps one person who might be able to discerning reliable vs unreliable information on this subject.
I mean how would you or I know what was factual or not? Are you making this determination based on your own bias?
Kinda my point. No one knows! And I guess there is no good data until someone makes a show in 20 years.
There's plenty of "good data" but perfect data is unreasonable.
Alba, is a large aluminum producer in Bahrain. Aluminum production requires huge amounts of power and they have over 4 GW of power production dedicated to aluminum. Aluminum prices have been moving up and recently spiked because it can’t through the Strait. It’s not just oil.
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They are large, significant surely. ~1.7MT smelted v. world primary (not recycled) market is around 75MT and recycling adds a lot to that if just talking smelting
Getting into the aluminum smelting business even to the degree of Bahrain would require 4 average sized nuclear reactors.
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I think China is getting most of that - SA east/west pipeline can do up to 7m a day - big tanker in Red Sea holds 2m …
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Brrrrrrt - A10 Warthogs activated to shred speedboats along with Apache AH’s - video at 10 (I wish)
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