Can you give some examples of renewables being the best economic choice currently?
Mike B
Oil exploration teams (BP) taking a big hit.
- Thread starter wemay
- Start date
Mike B
That's good point, and it leads to another issue. Depending on the source sometimes they lump something into the pie chart showing " renewables" to make it larger. The "something" is hydro. That's not fair since hydro should have its own category and not prop up solar and wind numbers.
OVERKILL
$100 Site Donor 2021
This fantasy is typically based on CAPEX for procurement of a given capacity and ignores all the ancillary costs like transmission, fast-ramp gas backup and the fact that productivity will be dramatically lower.
Example, on a price per MW purchase wind is dramatically lower than pretty much anything else. It's usually around $1 million/MW, so a 10MW wind turbine would cost roughly $10 million dollars. So, if you wanted 1,000MW of wind capacity you'd be looking at $1 billion, this is about 12x cheaper than the AP1000 nuclear reactor currently under construction at Vogtle, so let's use that FOAK cost for Vogtle as our baseline here.
A single AP1000 at 93% CF will produce 8.2TWh/year
A 1,000MW wind farm at 30% CF will produce 2.6TWh/year and require full nameplate backup in the form of some other source, usually gas
A single AP1000 will last ~80 years
A 1000MW wind farm will last ~20-25 years
Now of course the AP1000 has staffing and maintenance costs which are significantly higher than the wind farm. A nuke doesn't have zero OPEX. Staffing makes up the largest cost of nuke OPEX.
Comparatively, the wind farm has next to zero OPEX, so the costs come from firming its output with other sources.
So, OPEX for a nuke is internalized and reflected in the per kWh rate paid to the facility. OPEX for a wind farm is externalized and becomes a "grid" cost, in terms of backup capacity, its staffing, fast-ramping, fuelling....etc.
This is why renewables are "cheap". Low CAPEX and externalized OPEX make it very easy to sell something of inherently low capacity value as something with good procurement value.
OVERKILL
$100 Site Donor 2021
Even when it's broken out where that power goes is often not indicated. Ontario has 11TWh of wind generation, but almost all of it gets exported at rock bottom prices, so its output doesn't line up with its actual value, which approaches zero.
And a couple of tornadoes or those Texas sized hailstorms will bring that output down in a big hurry. Meanwhile other energy production plants hum along.
4WD
$50 site donor 2024
Oh man, was driving a GMC 2500 when I saw the road being pounded by near golf ball sized … I quickly stopped and backed under a tree - got by with hood damage only … (horrible sound) …
4WD
$50 site donor 2024
hydro is not renewable because the water only flows one way
OVERKILL
$100 Site Donor 2021
Well, *it* hit the fan, 20% of Texas is without power as rolling blackouts take place. The collapse in wind generation and insufficient gas meant they just didn't have enough power.
*Glances at Pickering 5 producing 44MW above nameplate...
*
4WD
$50 site donor 2024
San Antonio gets a portion of their power from South Texas Project … but I know the “grid” is just not tailored for heavy ice etc … I mean a line broke a hundred feet from my house and I know they worked on a brace up there a year back.Well, *it* hit the fan, 20% of Texas is without power as rolling blackouts take place. The collapse in wind generation and insufficient gas meant they just didn't have enough power.
*Glances at Pickering 5 producing 44MW above nameplate...
Kinda glad it failed at 30F and not 10F though … Way more guys up there this time, hopefully stronger now.
(I paid to get my line buried a few years back) …
BP will go under or shrink massively with this. They'll take the applause from the free bubble-up and Rainbow Stew crowd and then quietly retreat and reinvigorate their exploration program, but it will be too late to recover to where they were before. They may even at some point require the UK government to bail them out.
I wish they could pull this off, but the technology just isn't mature yet. I do think it one day will be, but not yet. We'll be on oil for sometime to come.
I wish they could pull this off, but the technology just isn't mature yet. I do think it one day will be, but not yet. We'll be on oil for sometime to come.
Nukes run when there is no wind power. Ask Texas how wind/solar has worked out for them the last couple days.
Don't get me wrong, I love wind/solar. But there has to be back-up, or reserve capacity. And right now that's nuke or fossil fuels. Can't make a clean break from them anytime soon. But we can sure reduce them, and any reduction is good, as long as demand can be met, IMHO.
OVERKILL
$100 Site Donor 2021
I don't love wind/solar. Both have worked to drive-up our electricity costs significantly in Ontario due to feed-in subsidies. Wind here produces grossly out of phase with demand making it pretty much useless.
Solar, unsubsidized, can at least be used to depress daytime peaking at reasonable levels of penetration (not biting into baseload) and its morning/evening ramps can be dealt with via some moderate amounts of storage but wind, in locations where its output profile doesn't align with demand? useless. It's unfortunate that much of the data gathering that should have taken place prior to a full-steam-ahead roll-out wasn't because it didn't align with the narrative of the wind and solar utopia so Ontarians will be forced to pay for wind generation that's almost entirely exported at a massive loss for 20 years.
There are many tools in the tool box, it should ALWAYS be about choosing what the best tool for that job is, not about which one buys the most political brownie points/virtue signals the best.
4WD
$50 site donor 2024
Just watched a green power documentary on my flight from FRA … some thoughtsBetter question is when will solar energy be made out of solar energy
1.) said solar is unstoppable because it’s not just green but will be very cheap … no mention of what kind of labor/pollution makes this true ? O&G will only be for aircraft and plastic by 2030 - no mention of lubes or ships in 2030?
2.) moving from coal to NG is just extraction to extraction … No mention of how solar panels are made or maintenance impacts of commercial installations using chemicals to spray wash them … or how toxic they are at end of life cycles
3.) claimed that battery technology is already here for full backup to wind/sun lags … no comment
4.) did plug home rooftop solar and or outer walls (high rise) as better use of landmass - already used that space
(many of us agree with that) … IMO that airgap really helps too
Did show some massive dessert solar spreads … pretty useless land otherwise … but needs lots of water ? Dichotomy of sorts …?
I could see some good examples in the film … but it also had a propaganda feel overall … Good vs evil
BTW: The main commentator? Just call him Professor Investor
Just look at the CEO’name.....says it all.
BP's oil exploration team swept aside in climate revolution
Nothing escapes the winds of change now sweeping through BP, not even the exploration team that for more than a century powered its profits by discovering billions of barrels of oil.www.reuters.com
4WD
$50 site donor 2024
My question is - if BP wants to roll with this - why do AI’s think they all do. We will still need:
Something to fuel transition + aviation fuel + plastics (thin film) + chemicals + lubricants etc
Seldom in these debates to I hear anything about direct heat or peaker power from NG
Hard to say, transporting oil is more expensive than transporting electricity.
I remember back in my Virginia days the house we were in only have electricity, we have to haul trash out with pickup, we have to load heating oil in the winter, we have septic tank, we have well water, we have electric water heater and electric stove, we have no natural gas.
If battery is cheap do you really think hauling gasoline around would be cheaper or charging battery would be cheaper? Remember gas station cost money too, and you sometimes need to drive out of your way to get gas and it cost money too. Electricity is cheaper, EV is expensive because of battery.
You guys have been very successful with Nuclear. So has the US so I don't know why everyone hates it. Savannah River nuclear facility has a new method of disposing of the waste. They put it in glass and bury it deep. The US Navy has used nuclear power for over 70 yrs safely.
You got a good washing of the brain. Glad it didn't work.Just watched a green power documentary on my flight from FRA … some thoughts
1.) said solar is unstoppable because it’s not just green but will be very cheap … no mention of what kind of labor/pollution makes this true ? O&G will only be for aircraft and plastic by 2030 - no mention of lubes or ships in 2030?
2.) moving from coal to NG is just extraction to extraction … No mention of how solar panels are made or maintenance impacts of commercial installations using chemicals to spray wash them … or how toxic they are at end of life cycles
3.) claimed that battery technology is already here for full backup to wind/sun lags … no comment
4.) did plug home rooftop solar and or outer walls (high rise) as better use of landmass - already used that space
(many of us agree with that) … IMO that airgap really helps too
Did show some massive dessert solar spreads … pretty useless land otherwise … but needs lots of water ? Dichotomy of sorts …?
I could see some good examples in the film … but it also had a propaganda feel overall … Good vs evil
BTW: The main commentator? Just call him Professor Investor
Just watched a green power documentary on my flight from FRA … some thoughts
1.) said solar is unstoppable because it’s not just green but will be very cheap … no mention of what kind of labor/pollution makes this true ? O&G will only be for aircraft and plastic by 2030 - no mention of lubes or ships in 2030?
2.) moving from coal to NG is just extraction to extraction … No mention of how solar panels are made or maintenance impacts of commercial installations using chemicals to spray wash them … or how toxic they are at end of life cycles
3.) claimed that battery technology is already here for full backup to wind/sun lags … no comment
4.) did plug home rooftop solar and or outer walls (high rise) as better use of landmass - already used that space
(many of us agree with that) … IMO that airgap really helps too
Did show some massive dessert solar spreads … pretty useless land otherwise … but needs lots of water ? Dichotomy of sorts …?
I could see some good examples in the film … but it also had a propaganda feel overall … Good vs evil
BTW: The main commentator? Just call him Professor Investor
Based on things I have seen:
1) Solar is cheap because someone already spend the R&D and economy of scale to make them, so they are just cheap for US tagging along. Same for the reason why fracking is cheap because we already have oil well drilled, we just need to go back to frack the old wells.
2) Coal to NG happens because it is cheaper from fracking. Solar panel maintenance are typically just done with water (you don't want residual build up of soap and chemical), yes it will be toxic if you throw them in the trash but for now people are expected to keep using it even after the 25 year life span, kicking the recycling can down the road. An existing not optimal panel is still cheaper than a new panel that cost you a lot of labor to install and the cost of a new panel. Abandoned oil well and gas well have similar problem but politics tends to turn a blind eye on them. Tar sand field is even worse, way worse.
3) This I agree, it is not yet cost effective unless we have a bunch of 2nd life cell from crushed EV for cheap, it likely won't happen for another 10 years. It may make sense to reduce the peak ramp up cost but it won't be fully solar / off grid need.
4) Rooftop helps if you are building new construction, but for retrofit it is super expensive vs utility scale, we are soon approaching the cost of installation being higher than the panel. US have ridiculous construction and tradesmen cost, where other nations do not have (I mean $12k to install an AC vs just a few hundred for other nations, or electric panel upgrade from 100A to 200A costing $10k). Utility scale will be the future and roof top will likely stays with only new construction.
