Originally Posted By: The Critic
The Honda will need a timing belt job every 100,000 miles. Depending on who performs the job, it runs between $600 to $1000. The biggest advantage of the Honda is the availability of an 8-year/120,000 mile extended warranty (most only go up to 7-yr/100k) for about $1200, which covers those infamous power sliding doors and items that tend to break with heavy use.
Depending on the model you purchase, the Sienna may have more incentives so the purchase price may be lower. It also uses a timing chain instead of a timing belt. However, as I posted a while back, water pump or timing chain replacement on the 3.5L V6 engine requires engine/transaxle removal. Depending on how often the water pump fails, it may end up costing the same as the Odyssey, which requires periodic timing belt jobs.
The transmission in either vehicle shouldn't be prone to premature failures. Both have a dipstick and a drain plug, and the fluid is available at the dealer for about $6-$7/qt. (Yes, the price of Toyota WS has dropped significantly) However I don't trust either transmission past the 150k mark, as most of them seem to fail at about that time. Rebuilds run under $3k for the Honda and about $3500 (???) for the Toyota.
Also, you may want to consider the Saturn Outlook. It delivers the SAME fuel economy as the minivans but I think it may be a roomier and more comfortable vehicle.
Reliability wise, it would be advisable for him to only consider Honda and Toyota. They are the two with the statistically highest reliability for the past two decades. Considering anything else could potentially be very expensive in the long run, either repair wise or depreciation wise (if he is into selling his old cars).
Originally Posted By: The Critic
Back home, I used to see a fairly equal number of 99-04 Siennas and Odysseys. Recently, I see very, very few Odysseys and mostly Siennas (many of the 04+) models. I wonder if it's due to the transmission issues with the last generation Odyssey that caused Honda to lose many of its loyal customers...
If they were loyal customers, Honda would not have lost them. People buy Toyotas and Hondas for their reliability. If they lose that, they lose their sales.