New 54.5 MPG Fuel Economy Standards, Rd. 2

[sciphi]

I'll be the sucker and bite again. Let's hash out the new 54.5 MPG CAFE standards like the adults we are, at least chronologically!

My take: It's all a game. It might spur more hybrid or electric car sales. Many cars of today are within spitting distance of reaching that goal since it's based on unadjusted MPG, not adjusted MPG. In short, it won't be a big deal to get cars of 6-7 years to comply with these standards.

For example: My Cruze is rated at 44 mpg combined unadjusted on the EPA tests. Our Fit is rated at 40 combined unadjusted. I verified that by downloading MPG data from here: http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/download.shtml

I'll hold up my own car as an example of what can be done. GM put the Cruze onto a diet, gave it a taller final drive ratio, added some aerodynamic tweaks, LRR tires (that surprisingly are okay tires 75% of the time), and can shove it onto a dealer's lot for under $20,000 OTD in the most efficient manual transmission model.

My predictions: We'll see a renaissance of smaller, lighter, faster, more fun to drive cars out of this, as fuel prices dictate that people get more fuel-efficient cars. I also predict a lot more trailers on the roads, as folks realize that having an efficient commuter that can haul a small trailer on weekends is cheaper overall than fueling a larger vehicle.

I also use my predictive powers to predict that trucks will continue to be used for truck things, especially on farms and oil/gas fields where a truck really is needed.

Fire away!

 

[dave1251]

In before the lock.

I do not care because the less gasoline the U.S. uses the higher the cost per gallon.

 

[Tones]

I don't believe this change will make people drive to conserve fuel. The choices for new car buyers will change, no doubt. Likely fewer, more expensive choices. Probably boost light truck sales too, as that will be one of the only other options.

 

[simple_gifts]

If you build it, they will come.

 

[Quattro Pete]

Realistically speaking, I expect to price of gas to keep climbing, regardless if we curtail our consumption or not. So having more fuel efficient vehicles should be good in the long run, just as long as they don't cost us an arm and a leg.

 

[tinmanSC]

Originally Posted By: dave1251
In before the lock.

I do not care because the less gasoline the U.S. uses the higher the cost per gallon.

err... what? Less gasoline used = higher prices? What kind of economy do you think we are running here? Higher gasoline demand results in higher gasoline prices. Classic supply and demand curve. Gasoline is a short-term inelastic demand product. I think you dragged in a few assumptions that have nothing to do with the original post.

 

[morepwr]

The only thing that concerns me about the new requirment is that the only cars available will be little tiny things like a smart car or something. And that simply isnt something I want to drive.
But we can only hope that battery technology gets good enough to be a more user friendly option for distance.

 

[antiqueshell]

Originally Posted By: sciphi


My predictions: We'll see a renaissance of smaller, lighter, faster, more fun to drive cars out of this, as fuel prices dictate that people get more fuel-efficient cars.



Fire away!


You are right. I think the US public is finally REDISCOVERING that economical vehicles can be reasonably comfortable, very efficient, and more fun to drive because they are lighter and more nimble. What helps is the younger generations are more open to smaller cars in general, and they overwhelmingly prefer the smaller cars and
European driving and handling characteristics.

I also predict that the manual transmission will make a incredible come back. Because people are also looking for a lower vehicle price, and also manual transmissions are cheaper to purchase and very cheap to maintain, and when they need service are much cheaper to service.

 

[Brons2]

Originally Posted By: antiqueshell
I also predict that the manual transmission will make a incredible come back. Because people are also looking for a lower vehicle price, and also manual transmissions are cheaper to purchase and very cheap to maintain, and when they need service are much cheaper to service.


I hope you are right. I miss driving a manual transmission car.

 

[dave1251]

Originally Posted By: tinmanSC
Originally Posted By: dave1251
In before the lock.

I do not care because the less gasoline the U.S. uses the higher the cost per gallon.

err... what? Less gasoline used = higher prices? What kind of economy do you think we are running here? Higher gasoline demand results in higher gasoline prices. Classic supply and demand curve. Gasoline is a short-term inelastic demand product. I think you dragged in a few assumptions that have nothing to do with the original post.


Yeah use less gas. Higher gas prices.

U.S. petroleum consumption reached an estimated 18.87 million barrels per day in 2011, and is expected to increase to 18.96 million barrels per day in 2012. U.S. gasoline demand decreased to an average of 8.75 million barrels per day in 2011 (approximately 368 million gallons per day), or about 41 million fill-ups per day (based on a 9-gallon fill-up). Demand for 2012 is projected to continue to decline to 8.74 million barrels per day. Drivers in the United States traveled 8.105 billion miles per day in 2011, and are expected to travel 8.158 billion miles per day in 2012. This equates to an average of 33 miles per vehicle per day. On average, U.S. drivers consume 1.49 gallons of gasoline per day, or about 10.44 gallons per week.

If you want to pay less at the pump do something along with using less gasoline and use less petroleum products because using less gasoline alone is not cutting it.

So why have stricter government intervention?

 

[Quattro Pete]

Originally Posted By: tinmanSC
err... what? Less gasoline used = higher prices? What kind of economy do you think we are running here? Higher gasoline demand results in higher gasoline prices. Classic supply and demand curve.

One could argue that gasoline does not follow a classic supply and demand curve though since it is not a completely free market economy industry. Sure, OPEC does not have the same amount of control as they once did, but they're still powerful enough to skew the curve.

 

[tommygunn]

Circumventing locked topics...fun. You can get banned from alot of forums for that.

 

[Mr Nice]

I would love to be able to buy a new 1995 Civic VX with 55 MPG on the highway.

 

[R2d2]

Don't worry as the election gets closer, gas prices will miraculously stabilize. Opec likes a continuity in US govt (the devil you know).

 

[volk06]

Well if sciphi doesn't post for a while we know why!

In before lock #2

 

[L_Sludger]

Okay, I'll repeat what I said.

54.5mpg? That's awesome!

I like it!

 

[spasm3]

I don't care if cars meet that mileage, but leave trucks and the suv's out of the equation. I don't want a wimpy high gas mileage truck/suv that won't pull serious weight.

 

[sciphi]

Originally Posted By: volk06
Well if sciphi doesn't post for a while we know why!

In before lock #2


As long as folks keep it nice, no reason for anything.

So, warning: Keep it civil, people!

A return of more manuals would be a good thing. Even though the EPA ratings might not be as good, often the real-world fuel economy is better than an automatic.

 

[crw]

I hate to say it, but most people under the age of 25 or 30 have never driven a manual. They don't know how.

 

[crw]

Whenever I see a sporty small car such as a Miata or a Mini, I carefully walk past it and check to see if it has a manual or automatic. About 75% of them are automatics. Manuals don't sell, dealers don't stock them in a small market like mine.

My neighbor has a Mini Cooper Clubman with a manual. He is 70. The 30 year olds are driving automatics.