When's the last time you ever had a package lost by UPS or Fedex?
With either UPS or Fed Ex I would worry more about stolen
than I would lost.
I'm always careful when I have a delivery coming from either. Luckily I'm retired, so I make it a point to be home with the front door open on the day when I'm expecting a delivery. They almost ALWAYS leave it at the front door. Many times they not only won't ring the doorbell, but they don't even attempt to hide the package. Leaving it in plain view up against the front door to anyone who walks by. (I have a large support pillar on my front porch that they could easily hide it behind).
They tend to deliver in my neighborhood about the same time school lets out. So I have droves of kids walking by my house. With a package sitting there it's just too tempting. So as soon as they approach the front door to deliver the package, my dog starts barking letting me know they're there. I immediately retrieve the package. If I was living alone and working, I shudder to think how many packages I would have had stolen by now.