Is Inflation Going To Cripple The Economy ?

[PimTac]

When I go to a restaurant and they have a sign saying "please be patient as we have a worker shortage" I walk out. Don't blame your lack of decent pay or loyalty to your employees for poor service. When the shutdowns happened, the good employers kept their staff and sacrificed and retained those workers (loyalty) and now they can operate normally. Those employers who dumped employees like a rented mule are now dealing with not being able to hire back. You reap what you sow. Loyalty goes both ways.

It depends. The restaurant I go to once a month has this exact sign and at times there is just one or two servers for the whole place. Nobody wants a job.

These employees have been very loyal to the owner during all this and our group recognizes that. We tip them very generously for their efforts.

 

[Dave Hess]

I heard on the radio this morning that, compared to 12 months ago, the average family is paying $180 more per month for basic necessities. The announcer said this figure was taken from government stats and was for basic needs only, no housing or car costs figured in.
On average, wages are not keeping up, folks.

3X that government stat to get an accurate number....

 

[ripcord]

Everyone is talking about the economy in the US, but we don't live in a vacuum. Keep your eyes on the Chinese economy.

 

[Dave Hess]

Everyone is talking about the economy in the US, but we don't live in a vacuum. Keep your eyes on the Chinese economy.

China sneezes and the entire globe catches a cold.

^^^^^
50 years ago it wasn‘t like that and Americans would laugh if you said the above.

Let’s be honest, they have so much power and can really punish other countries if they really wanted to.

 

[GON]

Had an old boss who I greatly respected/ I did not and still don't align with his view on China. He is now retired, he was very high up in the Pacific Command. When I asked him about the threat China posed, at the time the artificial Islands were being militarily occupied, his response was China was not a threat, and every action they are taking is simply to ensure they have enough food to feed the Chinese people so the CCP can stay in power.

This man was a great general officer and someone at a level I can't even imagine. But I am also aware that in the late 1990's, the USA did not consider a up and coming China a threat at all. Strategically (20 years out) was focused on a "Unified Europe" as the biggest threat to the USA in 2020.....

 

[ripcord]

GON, it's amazing how bad we are at predicting the future, isn't it?

My feeling is that the ChiComs have realized they are sitting on a big bubble economy and have two choices. Try to ride it out and wait for the inevitable pop which will jeopardize their power or they can start letting air out of the bag and try to have a controlled crash. It looks like Xi is going for door #2.

 

[CharlesInCharge]

GON, it's amazing how bad we are at predicting the future, isn't it?

My feeling is that the ChiComs have realized they are sitting on a big bubble economy and have two choices. Try to ride it out and wait for the inevitable pop which will jeopardize their power or they can start letting air out of the bag and try to have a controlled crash. It looks like Xi is going for door #2.

I don't think that's the case with China. They are probably the world superpower economy right now with endless subservient workers, the largest military in the world, the most dominant economy, etc. They are positioning themselves to have the controlling digital currency. They hack the world with ease. They are going to be gobbling up territory near term, starting with Taiwan. They steal technology and secrets from the US with impunity, with copyright infringements as a total racket. They have perfected government and corporate spying.

 

[ripcord]

Look into what people are writing in the financial journals, CIC.

 

[GON]

GON, it's amazing how bad we are at predicting the future, isn't it?

My feeling is that the ChiComs have realized they are sitting on a big bubble economy and have two choices. Try to ride it out and wait for the inevitable pop which will jeopardize their power or they can start letting air out of the bag and try to have a controlled crash. It looks like Xi is going for door #2.

RC,

RGR that. China has a great advantage in that is does have a very long term economic plan. I think some northern European countries may also. Have not seen anything out of the USA since I have been an adult that indicated we have any plan whatsoever- unless instant economic gratification is a plan.

Xi may have a card to play that the rest of the world does not. They are the producer to the world. They can take over Taiwan, and heck we can't even build cars anymore- as from what I understand, Taiwan supplies many of the chips needed to make cars in the USA.

Not sure the USA has a economic hand to play. We are going to hold back IP rights to copyrighted material like Justin Bieber songs and DR Sues books........

Would love to see the USA have a 100 year economic plan, that rewards for companies to get on board with it. In my crazy dumb butt world, I think of things like stocks having zero capital gain tax after being held for thirty years, but a 99 percent tax on stock being held less than five years. Imagine how that would change the way leadership at corporate America would plan and execute....

 

[CharlesInCharge]

Look into what people are writing in the financial journals, CIC.

I stopped trusting the "experts" decades ago. They have materially failed at economic policy, trade policy, global security, financial markets, and generally anything that's important. Seriously. Stock market collapse of 2000, the 9/11/01 failures, the markets crash, the failures of OIF and OEF, the housing market collapse due to securities frauds and other scams, the current global scams, intelligence failures galore in the last 20 years, and on and on. They basically get nothing right ever.

 

[wander2039]

Cripple? .. I'd say it'll slow down proportionally to the increase. Just spent $41 to put only 15 gallons in the RV, if that was a full tank would be over $120. That means we're not to spending somewhere else. Either a campground or restaurant. Going to have to rethink portions of our trip next year. More a family has to pay for basic services less they'll spend elsewhere. A lot of families are getting out of debt too so less putting on the CC and waiting till later. I don't do any grocery shopping but I've seen the receipts.. wowsers.

 

[ZeeOSix]

Riddle me this Batman.

"Nobody is working" ... yet unemployment is low. And businesses are complaining that they can't find any people to hire.
"Nobody is working" ... yet everyone wants to buy stuff and there's a shortage of goods and prices are ever increasing.
"Nobody is working" ... yet house prices just keep going up and up.

Where are people getting money to do this?

 

[Dinoburner]

The I quit phenomena is very interesting since it was born out of the of which we will not speak. This sea change among those under 35 say is headed into unpredictable territory. A bit unnerving I`d say.

 

[PandaBear]

Had an old boss who I greatly respected/ I did not and still don't align with his view on China. He is now retired, he was very high up in the Pacific Command. When I asked him about the threat China posed, at the time the artificial Islands were being militarily occupied, his response was China was not a threat, and every action they are taking is simply to ensure they have enough food to feed the Chinese people so the CCP can stay in power.

This man was a great general officer and someone at a level I can't even imagine. But I am also aware that in the late 1990's, the USA did not consider a up and coming China a threat at all. Strategically (20 years out) was focused on a "Unified Europe" as the biggest threat to the USA in 2020.....

He is right about the threat of unified Euro though. Without Greece and Spanish debt popping and Brexit they could be a threat to the USD.

 

[PandaBear]

Riddle me this Batman.

"Nobody is working" ... yet unemployment is low. And businesses are complaining that they can't find any people to hire.
"Nobody is working" ... yet everyone wants to buy stuff and there's a shortage of goods and prices are ever increasing.
"Nobody is working" ... yet house prices just keep going up and up.

Where are people getting money to do this?

A lot of people who work have the money, like retiree, they just give up working and retire for good.
A lot of people become housewives and stay at home dads.
A lot of people decided to do good paying jobs instead.
A lot of people decided to move to low cost area for the same job at slightly lower pay.
A lot of foreign workers decided to leave, legal or illegal.

 

[ZeeOSix]

A lot of people who work have the money, like retiree, they just give up working and retire for good.
A lot of people become housewives and stay at home dads.
A lot of people decided to do good paying jobs instead.
A lot of people decided to move to low cost area for the same job at slightly lower pay.
A lot of foreign workers decided to leave, legal or illegal.

You forgot 25+ year olds are moving back home to live with their parents. USA ... the new country where 2 and 3 generations now live together.

 

[RDY4WAR]

Better than no raise at all, as it has been for years and years and years. Tired of workers being exploited - finally they have some leverage. Good for them.

I know a few people near me that are mad because of that. The higher wage is putting them above the maximum income for social programs like medicaid, EBT, section 8, etc... Making them far worse off than they were before. They've been playing with schedules and calling out strategically to keep their income down.

 

[wpod]

Who said it was easy? In my case, it was working 50+ hours a week, 6 years of graveyard, going to Community College, spending Saturdays in the computer lab. And caring for my parents. Certainly no vacations! Driving beater cars. When I started making a little more, I drove a used Toyota 4 banger Pickup. When I bought my 1st property, it took ever penny I could muster and moved in with nothing. My employeers paid most of my tuition. I took advantage of stock plans and 401K matching as best as I could. I got my 1st degree at 40.
I knew I had thrown away most of my life and thought it was too late for me. And I knew I had 1 person to blame.

By the way, I have never bought a lottery ticket in my life. I am terrified of gambling. I know the other side of life and I never wanna go back there.

You put out lots of effort to improve your situation.

 

[PandaBear]

You forgot 25+ year olds are moving back home to live with their parents. USA ... the new country where 2 and 3 generations now live together.

There is nothing to be ashamed of living at home. You just have to pay rent and help out the parents. The worse would be to live off debt that you can never pay off in order to live with roommates in an apartment. Imagine your parents are broke and you are broke, instead of living together to help each other out.

Beside, the main reason to move out of your parents is to live close to work and find better jobs away from home. If you can work from home anyways why wouldn't you live at home and help out (pay rent, do dishes, etc).

 

[gathermewool]

@CharlesInCharge it seems as if you need to move to Silicon Valley and quit complaining..considering how magically lucky you make it out to be.