Investors....come in please!

[PandaBear]

There is no one person in charge. The inflation is due to the global thing and its ramifications.
And as long as it continues, we will continue to have the same related problems.
Anyone who does not understand this is ...

I would say at the moment we are either in the "roaring 20s" where assembly line and electrification boosted economy to never seen before, or right before 2000s Y2K bug concern so interest rate was artifically suppressed (instead of Y2K we have pandemic) and Japan (now China) hitting a slowdown.

Like all downfall we have seen in the past, any artificial interest rate suppression will lead to hyper inflation or overheat economy (crypto, dot com stock, tulip, real estate, etc). Eventually the central banks will slam the brake and then trigger a depression / recession. Hard to say when or where but it won't stay like this forever, or Tesla / tech stock / crypto / etc will do well if you buy now.

Nobody would know. I thought FB would go the way of MySpace, and Sun Micro would remain in power, and Amazon would go the way of pet.com. It is impossible to predict ahead of time.

 

[Warstud]

Halfway To Recessionville

 

[Dave Hess]

VDE doing nicely.

 

[PimTac]

Tough day today. The Fed is backed into a corner, inflation and supply chain issues abound and now the drums of war are beating.

 

[Kjmack]

I put a short on Ford a weak ago , nice 1,200% flip

 

[Pablo]

Tough day today. The Fed is backed into a corner, inflation and supply chain issues abound and now the drums of war are beating.

I bought SQQQ last week......might sell today and pick up some bargains. Sold enough earlier to have some cash.

Market will go lower, but I can stomach it. Hurts most, emotionally speaking, in the after tax accounts.

 

[PimTac]

I bought SQQQ last week......might sell today and pick up some bargains. Sold enough earlier to have some cash.

Market will go lower, but I can stomach it. Hurts most, emotionally speaking, in the after tax accounts.

Nice pickup there.

I just heard news that Biden will be having a White House meeting this afternoon to discuss price controls.

If one wanted to blow up a economy, that would be the way to do it. Ask Nixon if it helped.

A lot of uncertainty going forward.

 

[wpod]

IOt is n

It’s OK to be off by 2%…… not 15%.

The bozo in charge needs to explain why it keeps going higher and higher.

The $100 shopping cart of groceries keeps buying less and less.

It did not just the bozo in charge it is a cumulative problem that Started with Korea, Vietnam , decades in the middle east, Afghanistan huge welfare programs and foreign aid , the huge military and its presence around the globe, the cost of the government employees and politicians. We as a nation are being murdered with the proverbial death by a thousand cuts.

 

[wpod]

Nice pickup there.

I just heard news that Biden will be having a White House meeting this afternoon to discuss price controls.

If one wanted to blow up a economy, that would be the way to do it. Ask Nixon if it helped.

A lot of uncertainty going forward.

That failed in the 1970's. We as a society are dumb enough to expect the cause of the problem to find a solution to the problems they created.

 

[Kjmack]

History doesn't teach idiots anything . This time it will be different . I've heard it all . I feel so bad for this country .

 

[ArrestMeRedZ]

History doesn't teach idiots anything . This time it will be different . I've heard it all . I feel so bad for this country .

The spending curve is getting steeper. And the proposed solution to inflation is even more spending. I'm glad I'm not an economist or I'd be even more afraid.
What investments in Weimar Germany or Venezuela did well?

 

[Jimmy_Russells]

What an insane day

 

[Pablo]

What an insane day

Yeah my largest gainer and my largest loser, neither of them made a bit of sense to "move" as much as they did.

BUT wow, pure LUCK (and I will admit it) on selling SQQQ.

On buying, well those are all nice after the last couple hours!!!

 

[Dave Hess]

Plunge Protection Team buying today ?

 

[JeffKeryk]

Wild day; plunge then late recover.
Inflation? 2 things... Supply demand imbalance and good economy.
Jobs are paying more so people have more $$ to spend. Coupled with low supply as compared to supply.

Until we get ahold of the global issue, there will be these huge imbalances.
I am staying the course; long term conservative growth, some more risky stuff and low risk muni bonds for stability (and tax advantage).

 

[PimTac]

Inflation? 2 things... Supply demand imbalance and good economy.

Would that classify as Demand Pull or Cost Push inflation? Maybe a new hybrid of both?

Just talked to my advisor last week. Inflation is by far the biggest topic he encounters these days. The current real rate of inflation is 15.1%. The Fed must hike rates and in a hurry. They dawdled way too long. Labor is hurting. Unemployment rates are not covering the sector of workers who have just quit working altogether.

Watch for defensive consumer spending to increase which would be an ominous sign, though maybe not in Silicon Valley.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Would that classify as Demand Pull or Cost Push inflation? Maybe a new hybrid of both?

Just talked to my advisor last week. Inflation is by far the biggest topic he encounters these days. The current real rate of inflation is 15.1%. The Fed must hike rates and in a hurry. They dawdled way too long. Labor is hurting. Unemployment rates are not covering the sector of workers who have just quit working altogether.

Watch for defensive consumer spending to increase which would be an ominous sign, though maybe not in Silicon Valley.

It is both. There are goods shortages, due to incorrect forecasts (autos) and the failure to recover, supply chain, etc. Labor shortages. The 2020 recession sparked by you know what was a blip (a few short months); corporate forecasts were caught with their proverbial pants down.
Delivery costs are going up, truckers have been beat on for a long time and fuel prices make it worse for the industry. Truckers have had enough and are taking other opportunities.
Workers wages are up due to the labor shortages, employeers have to pay more for the same labor. People have more money for scarce resources.
A perfect storm for inflation. The Fed lowered borrowing cost to almost nothing almost 2 years ago to help with the onset of you know what.
The Fed will increase borrowing by 25 basis points, maybe 50 basis points as the year goes on? Likely.

Inflation inflation inflation. There are other key contributors to uncertainty, at least on of which cannot be mentioned.
The market is up nicely, but off highs. Lotta churn.
I am willing to bet your advisor told you the same thing.

 

[volk06]

VDE doing nicely.

I sold all my VDE at 90 a week ago. I purchased when during the pandemic. Took the earnings and put it into VONG.

 

[PimTac]

Inflation inflation inflation. There are other key contributors to uncertainty, at least on of which cannot be mentioned.
The market is up nicely, but off highs. Lotta churn.
I am willing to bet your advisor told you the same thing.

What I can tell you is that we talked about a economy in transition. The markets adjust to the new economy but during that adjustment there is volatility. We also had a nice few minutes discussing the expertise of Professor William Sharpe who is not far from you geographically. A brilliant economist.

I’d bet that the Fed will raise rates three times at least this year alone. A fourth time would not shock me. They are forced into a hurry up offense. Inflation is gaining and the one thing not mentioned is the current administration throwing tons of money out for projects and such and they want to throw out even more. Putting that much money into a economy has ramifications and we are seeing that now.

 

[Warstud]

Rally Time !