*Investors Blog*

[SC Maintenance]

OK, so your trading in some private dark pool. Pre-market doesn't re-open till 4:00AM. So I see 8:00PM after hours close on Friday.

Nikkei is down 8% though. Might be an entertaining day to say the least.

 

[SC Maintenance]

I wonder how many people went home this weekend, had someone or other tell them the world was ending, and put in a order to their entire vanguard account to re-allocate to something. I should have gone long on all the standard Vanguard bond funds before close on Friday.

 

[Zee09]

OK, so your trading in some private dark pool. Pre-market doesn't re-open till 4:00AM. So I see 8:00PM after hours close on Friday.

Nikkei is down 8% though. Might be an entertaining day to say the least.

24 hour market on the hood

 

[pbm]

Can somebody explain to me why it's fine for another country to have a 30% or 40% tariff on American goods but it's terrible if we put half of that (tariff wise) back on them?

 

[Zee09]

Can somebody explain to me why it's fine for another country to have a 30% or 40% tariff on American goods but it's terrible if we put half of that (tariff wise) back on them?

Yeah because it's the norm to rip off Americans. I'm with you...

 

[FoxProTwisty]

Watching 2 and 5 yr treasury futures try to paint a long term bottom here is just simply glorious!

Also watch for reversals on Sunday night 8 pm CST as that's when Shanghai futures opens followed by their stock market at 9:30 their time.

 

[SC Maintenance]

I wonder how many people went home this weekend, had someone or other tell them the world was ending, and put in a order to their entire vanguard account to re-allocate to something. I should have gone long on all the standard Vanguard bond funds before close on Friday.

Never mind - dumb thought. There likely all open ended.

 

[ArrestMeRedZ]

Can somebody explain to me why it's fine for another country to have a 30% or 40% tariff on American goods but it's terrible if we put half of that (tariff wise) back on them?

Because Americans feel it is their God-given right to consume 10 times more than the rest of the world, at a cost where lower-tier unskilled workers should be able to afford luxury SUVs and 80 inch flat screen TVs. If they can't have that they will throw a tantrum until it's given to them.

I'm looking for an overall drop in the market of 50% so I can roll my IRA into a Roth in two fell swoops. Perhaps at half the peak value it will be properly priced.

 

[pbm]

Because Americans feel it is their God-given right to consume 10 times more than the rest of the world, at a cost where lower-tier unskilled workers should be able to afford luxury SUVs and 80 inch flat screen TVs. If they can't have that they will throw a tantrum until it's given to them.

I'm looking for an overall drop in the market of 50% so I can roll my IRA into a Roth in two fell swoops. Perhaps at half the peak value it will be properly priced.

While I agree with your first paragraph i don't see how that answers my question.
I know that most American made vehicles are not desirable to Europeans (or anybody else for that matter) but I do believe that thousands of Corvettes, Mustangs, Hellcats etc...would easily sell in Europe if they sold at the same price they go for in America (plus shipping of course).

 

[SC Maintenance]

.

While I agree with your first paragraph i don't see how that answers my question.
I know that most American made vehicles are not desirable to Europeans (or anybody else for that matter) but I do believe that thousands of Corvettes, Mustangs, Hellcats etc...would easily sell in Europe if they sold at the same price they go for in America (plus shipping of course).

The answer you seek is historical. And you can verify its credibility yourself easily.

In 1946 we got all the allies together at the Bretton Woods resort. Everyone was expecting to get the rundown on how the new imperialist master would run things. Instead they were bribed. The USA would use their Navy to patrol the world's oceans for free, and everyone could trade with everyone, including the USA. If we had big tarrif's on shipping goods here, it wouldn't be a bribe.

The big requirement is they had to stand against the USSR with us. There were some bumps in the road but in general it worked well, and in 1992 the USSR fell.

It should have ended then - but it did not. So here we are.

 

[ArrestMeRedZ]

While I agree with your first paragraph i don't see how that answers my question.
I know that most American made vehicles are not desirable to Europeans (or anybody else for that matter) but I do believe that thousands of Corvettes, Mustangs, Hellcats etc...would easily sell in Europe if they sold at the same price they go for in America (plus shipping of course).

The part I guess I didn't make clear is our political class apparently worships the consumers, or at least is afraid of them. Look at all the uproar over tariffs, with the primary complaint that it will make consumer goods more expensive.
As to vehicles, let me relate my experience living in Japan in the late 70s. Toyotas there cost the same as they did in the US. No safety glass, thin sheet metal, less content domestically, no Trans Pacific transportation cost, etc. Obviously subsidized for export. However, the Buick owned by the developer I dealt with cost him about three times what it did in the States. US cars were stripped down to the nut and bolt and minutely inspected, then reassembled before they could be sold there. Tariffs didn't matter as the Japanese put up insurmountable barriers so that only Yakuza could afford American cars.

 

[ZeeOSix]

Because Americans feel it is their God-given right to consume 10 times more than the rest of the world, at a cost where lower-tier unskilled workers should be able to afford luxury SUVs and 80 inch flat screen TVs. If they can't have that they will throw a tantrum until it's given to them.

Might have to cut back to an econobox and a 40 inch flat screen.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Might have to cut back to an econobox and a 40 inch flat screen.

I can't afford a new econobox, guess I keep the Nissan. I think the biggest TV we have is 46 inches. I know its at least 11 years old because we had it at the old place. Speakers blown - I run sound through an old stereo.

 

[scoot]

I truly hope people don't start hurting themselves or loved one with the market in chaos.

Can somebody explain to me why it's fine for another country to have a 30% or 40% tariff on American goods but it's terrible if we put half of that (tariff wise) back on them?

It's not , markets don't agree though

 

[scoot]

Because Americans feel it is their God-given right to consume 10 times more than the rest of the world, at a cost where lower-tier unskilled workers should be able to afford luxury SUVs and 80 inch flat screen TVs. If they can't have that they will throw a tantrum until it's given to them.

I'm looking for an overall drop in the market of 50% so I can roll my IRA into a Roth in two fell swoops. Perhaps at half the peak value it will be properly priced.

We will never see 50% drop . My guess 25-30 . Then the big boys will swoop in . Wall Street loves a sale , they initiated .

 

[Bear906]

Can somebody explain to me why it's fine for another country to have a 30% or 40% tariff on American goods but it's terrible if we put half of that (tariff wise) back on them?

Because government--and not market forces--is increasingly determining what things sold in the USA should cost, and where things sold in the USA should be made. It's just another step toward a planned economy instead of a free economy, and more micro-management of the wealth of individuals and corporations via the tax code.

Instead of free markets, we're being led down the path of subsidizing domestic industry via taxation--socialism. As a freedom-loving capitalist and investor, I find this both abhorrent and unacceptable.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Can somebody explain to me why it's fine for another country to have a 30% or 40% tariff on American goods but it's terrible if we put half of that (tariff wise) back on them?

That's a huge generalization. Americans are consumers and we want cheap stuff.
Tariffs are an important tool when used for targeted, surgical issues. The issue is not tariffs per se, it's global tariffs (except 2 significant countries).
Global tariffs will have a detrimental effect on output. The higher the tariff the worse the effect on output. Why? Because people can't, or won't, buy as much.

Let's say the short term, say 1 year, the initial slow down does not hurt the economy too much, but output continues to decline in subsequent years becoming economically significant. And that's the optimistic scenario...

What happens when the tariiffs go away due to future policy and/or unacceptable sales (output)?

 

[Dave Hess]

I truly hope people don't start hurting themselves or loved one with the market in chaos.

It's not , markets don't agree though

Hurt themselves or loved one ???

Please explain.

 

[Dave Hess]

We will never see 50% drop . My guess 25-30 . Then the big boys will swoop in . Wall Street loves a sale , they initiated .

I agree that another 50% unlikely but we never know with all the manipulation.

Warren Buffett has tons of cash on the sidelines….

 

[Dave Hess]

Might have to cut back to an econobox and a 40 inch flat screen.

I recently bought a new econobox BRZ instead of the 911 I really wanted.