*Investors Blog*

There are so many moving parts its hard to sort it out. We have had a huge increase in interest rates along with a huge increase in fuel prices - but were not anywhere near a recession - if you believe the numbers. We have wartime deficits in peacetime - but the long bond is still low. The market is up 20% this year - but if you take out the magnificent 7 its not really up much. The real estate market is anemic on volume, but prices continue creeping up.

I am just confused.

I think I will look through the part of my portfolio I manage, and sell half it on Monday. Buy some more 5% T-bills and wait for something to happen?

Basically calm before the storm.

Very bizarre how everything is playing out, don’t forget there’s very low unemployment and economy data that can NOT be trusted. Election next year so for now things will remain ‘normal’ .

As if said a few times on here…… “Check your weather radar for storm clouds on the horizon.”
 
There are so many moving parts its hard to sort it out. We have had a huge increase in interest rates along with a huge increase in fuel prices - but were not anywhere near a recession - if you believe the numbers. We have wartime deficits in peacetime - but the long bond is still low. The market is up 20% this year - but if you take out the magnificent 7 its not really up much. The real estate market is anemic on volume, but prices continue creeping up.

I am just confused.

I think I will look through the part of my portfolio I manage, and sell half it on Monday. Buy some more 5% T-bills and wait for something to happen?
I feel similar.

One thing to consider, actually two things...the human element, and politics. Both will pay a roll going forward. And they always do.

I swear people just don’t care, they’ll keep chugging along, spending, borrowing. They just don’t care, they aren’t going to stop living, not today. Interest rates aren’t permanent, they’ll carry debt, keep on going, get a raise or two, and eventually the rates will drop. It’s just not normal anymore. I suppose it won’t matter what’s normal, and eventually we will hit a recession, but people are still spending, borrowing, and working. Until the jobs go away, I’m not sure this fall/recession/whatever will be clear and sudden.
 
for me, after any end of year distributions
my main focus will be to reallocate
and shift more of my asset pool to the cash side of things primary focus on either the money market or the short term bond market.

If the SP goes down or below the year low again, my SP500 target being around 3800,
I will then shift some of those cash funds into a SP 500 index thing.

that is my plan.
 
Las Vegas workers and now Detroit casino workers want to strike. Everyone wants more money.

Like I said in the UAW strike thread…… UPS employees set the strike tempo for blue collar workers in the USA.


https://www.ktnv.com/news/latest-au...-growing-sense-of-power-for-unions-in-america

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/30/det...ve-strike-authorization-at-three-casinos.html
The US and others are at or near full employment, which shifts leverage to the workers over management. Full employment drives up wages and fuels inflation as well.
Expect more until the pendulum swings the other way.

FYI, I want more money too. But the rest of y'all are overpaid.
 
Burn it down
You know, someday, workers in the USA will be happy to have a job, any job.
We are a spoiled nation, spoiled by an increase in debt and the reason for that is the 33 Trillion dollars and climbing unrestrained spent by our elected officials.

For some reason Americans feel they deserve more but the only reason for that is we are borrowing money, it's not real productivity that is making the country feel rich.
Anyway, I think people will be in for a huge wake up call in the next decade. Time will tell. I do think the stock market will continue to rise until the day Americans realize that our economy is built on nothing but borrowed money.
So in the meantime if one REALLY thinks about it, the market has gone nowhere for years now. One can almost look at it as a consolidation for the next leg up. I do think we will have that next leg, but watch out in 5 or 10 years. I mean sooner or later we cant keep paying 500 billion a year in interest charges and with the debt going up unrestrained who knows when we will have 50 or 60 trillion in debt and one trillion a year in interest payments.

Soooooo ... sooner or later the bus will stop and come crashing down with NO money left to borrow for a soft landing but as Americans we keep voting for continued borrowing as we have for the last 15 years. The first mistake was 2008 when Americans decided not to be uncomfortable during the financial crisis. Once that door was opened then end was determined. We would ahve been better off with a great depression and debt free today, than borrowing.

http://www.usdebtclock.org

how long can this continue before the stock market is impacted? So far there is no slow down. The country debt ratio has never been higher in modern history and climbs every second of the day. It's the most immature thing we can do but that is what we have become.
People are out to lunch, embarrassing!
 
Soooooo ... sooner or later the bus will stop and come crashing down with NO money left to borrow for a soft landing but as Americans we keep voting for continued borrowing as we have for the last 15 years. The first mistake was 2008 when Americans decided not to be uncomfortable during the financial crisis. Once that door was opened then end was determined. We would ahve been better off with a great depression and debt free today, than borrowing.
Big deficit spending started over 40 years ago. I guess you are younger than I am, @alarmguy
 
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