This whole mess really started with FDR But it hit the skids with LBJ and the great society. People from then on started to figure out you could survive without hustling
*Investors Blog*
- Thread starter Warstud
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When investing you need to ignore all the noise and focus on what the market is doing otherwise you'll miss out on some good opportunities .
Agree, not sure if you were aware, I haven't been negative on the market even during Covid. I did ok in my Roth during that time as WMT is a large holding there and still large now. Plus some short term trades it still does ok.
My 401k where I HAVE to buy funds not as well then but still hold the same ones today and has rebounded..
A family member used to have a saying about the market news.
"The news is reported to fit the market"
RE the Federal guvmint, there is a big difference between the deficit , and what they term a budget surplus.
The deficit is permanent, whereas those surpluses seem to be one time occurrences.
I do understand one thing about the financial world.
If I had a crystal ball
I would own the street named Wall.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/02/the...ussell-2000-turned-negative-for-the-year.html
The benchmark for small cap stocks — the Russell 2000 — turned negative for the year
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True ... the debt is more along the line of what I wanted to show.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/timeline-150-years-of-u-s-national-debt/
the national debt, yeah that is another thing.
at a certain point in life you wonder if it is even real..
once you really delve into how the monetary system functions
you come to the conclusion the whole world believes in an illusion.
not that real gold money works any better.
there is only so much of that to go around
so it seems it is better to keep printing and giving out IOU's
than the old way of trading a cow for a piece of land..
so what is it for the last 5?
technically the SP500 was marginally up for the last year,
but realistically it hit its hi point of close to 4800 in late 2021.
need to open more than one window if you want to feel the breeze
The folks doing all the damage won’t be alive in 10 years.
They want to leave a legacy of ‘sharing’ .
I said somewhere else in this thread I have a target on the SP of 3800, if it reaches those depths again that is one purchase I will make.
alot of what I plan on doing is interest rate based, acting on the assumption the higher the interest rate, the crappier the stock market and more lucrative bond or money market is.
using what it was like in the 80's when you could earn more in interest as a window...
I'm still waiting for end of year distributions, then I will sell a couple turkeys and do an asset shift to MM or short term bond stuff.
I sort of have a 6% target figure in my mind on Money Market investments, but it isn't there yet MM being about 5% now...
way I figure it is right now any money I might move around later is either hitting ultra short bond funds or the money market..
if I can get 6% in a MM that is where assets will shift and continue to shift.
if the Fed Fund rates keeps climbing for a longer period of time I will win on that
and if the Fed announces a cut in the Fed Funds rate
I will then shift that MM money into a longer term bond fund and ride the thing down
acting on the idea that for every 1 percent change in the interest rate a bond is worth ten percent more.
At least that is my plan right now.
Here is a link to a guy's newsletter that runs an investment firm in Houston talking about buying Treasury Bond ETF TLT with HIS own money. "There is an inverse relationship between bond prices and interest rates. When interest rates are low and rising, bond prices fall. However, when they are high and falling, bond prices rise."
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/as-rates-rise-why-i-personally-doubled-down-on-bonds/
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/as-rates-rise-why-i-personally-doubled-down-on-bonds/
quote: There is an inverse relationship between bond prices and interest rates. When interest rates are low and rising, bond prices fall. However, when they are high and falling, bond prices rise." QUOTE
that is basic investing 101 stuff right there You don't even need to buy a book to find that one out.. . but the best time to get into those bonds is when the Fed starts lowering the interest rate after a longer duration rise in interest.. those 10, 20 and 30 year bonds take time to follow the market... sort of like mortgages... and you dont want to buy in when rates might still rise.. at least that is my thinking..
for example the current 2 year T notes rate is 5.1% and the 20 year is 4.9%... it is what they call inverted... but at a certain point
once those long term rates catch up then and the Fed lowers interest rates, you can get the most money.
that is basic investing 101 stuff right there You don't even need to buy a book to find that one out.. . but the best time to get into those bonds is when the Fed starts lowering the interest rate after a longer duration rise in interest.. those 10, 20 and 30 year bonds take time to follow the market... sort of like mortgages... and you dont want to buy in when rates might still rise.. at least that is my thinking..
for example the current 2 year T notes rate is 5.1% and the 20 year is 4.9%... it is what they call inverted... but at a certain point
once those long term rates catch up then and the Fed lowers interest rates, you can get the most money.
Yes. But the good news today is, while the value of older bonds is discounted, you still get your interest and principal upon maturity. It is not like a stock that drops; that money is gone, at least on paper.
I feel like I have waaaay to much in CA Municipal double tax free bonds, but Schwab is trying to protect me against myself.
I will likely harvest some losses and rebalance. Not sure...
yea, we all have to make decisions based on our own comfort level and mind set.
Learn to ignore broker advice when you know they have a vested interest in you making trades. .
I very rarely buy an individual stock or bond, so its either ETF's or Mutual funds for me.
my plan will be to buy into a bond fund( or ETF) when the Fed finally starts lowering rates
all I have to do is wait.
I am part of the Schwab Wealth Advisory program. No complaints. They manage the broader portfolio while I manage the riskier stuff, primarily my stock options and grants from my working days and very few single stocks (TSLA).
I just sold some of my mutual funds that have been underperforming, and bought into some corporate debt with low coupon rates that matures 25 or more years into the future. Those bonds and notes have really been knocked down in price with the rise of the T Bond rates. They are producing a decent current yield, cannot be called below par. I expect interest rates to fall next year, so these bonds should produce a capital gain for me. (Whereas the mutual funds I sold would produce a capital loss in a recession market_
