*Investors Blog*

Pablo said:
No. No it isn't.

Look at DXY vs gold chart
Click to expand...

They Look Like A Mirrored Image To Me


Screenshot 2023-05-18 at 21-15-56 Public ChartLists StockCharts.com.png


Screenshot 2023-05-18 at 21-17-51 Public ChartLists StockCharts.com.png
 
Pablo said:
Best to compare actual gold price chart (not a fund) vs DXY chart
Click to expand...
I'm assuming your investing in gold via GLD ? Then that's the chart you wanna look at . Some commodity funds aren't always in lock step with the actual commodity . USO is a good example . GL
 
PWMDMD said:
I’d also like to point out if you ignore the pandemic noise, which you’d have to be fool looking at the slope of that line to believe that was real and sustainable, we are right where we should be from 2019 until now - still slightly exponential too! Vote wisely!

View attachment 156693
Click to expand...
The potential problem with your trendline I see is the entire trend except the last year was ZIRP. Were no longer there, and may never get there again.

So the potential is people will be unwilling to invest in large caps with P/E of 30 when they can get bonds at 5%. Historical S&P P/E is around 15.

Not predicting the future, just pointing out a potential inflection.
 
SC Maintenance said:
The potential problem with your trendline I see is the entire trend except the last year was ZIRP. Were no longer there, and may never get there again.

So the potential is people will be unwilling to invest in large caps with P/E of 30 when they can get bonds at 5%. Historical S&P P/E is around 15.

Not predicting the future, just pointing out a potential inflection.
Click to expand...
Red is "normal times" with sustained rates above zero.

Yellow is ZIRP and the last bull market and it was not sustainable IMO

Black is CV-19 noise and certainly was never sustainable

Green is my guess of where we'll be moving forward - somewhere between red and yellow. Maybe it's flatter than this and maybe not but after the last bull market we are simply due some form of reversion to the mean but it doesn't mean the end of the world as we know it.


Slide1.jpeg
 
PWMDMD said:
You may not like what you see...but it sure does...just insert "increase in deficit spending", which is what I meant to say but it doesn't change the sentiment of the post.
Click to expand...
OK I see why we had a temporary (I hope) disagreement. You were saying basically (increase) delta and then cumulative. I was simply thinking - and see by my statements, discreet years - year by year. I was merely saying 16, 17, 18, 18 were relatively fine, way better than 08, 09, 10, etc. So 16,17,18,19 OK Then covid hit. Yes 20 and 21 are relatively HUGE. Just as you exclude 2020 from your S&P 50/ZIRP charts, let's just hope 20-21 are outliers!

So again basically to include 17-19 in your statement as written didn't make sense in my small mind.
 
PWMDMD said:
Red is "normal times" with sustained rates above zero.

Yellow is ZIRP and the last bull market and it was not sustainable IMO

Black is CV-19 noise and certainly was never sustainable

Green is my guess of where we'll be moving forward - somewhere between red and yellow. Maybe it's flatter than this and maybe not but after the last bull market we are simply due some form of reversion to the mean but it doesn't mean the end of the world as we know it.


View attachment 156751
Click to expand...
I don't disagree with your lines - however the counter argument on this is your starting your blue line at a already highly elevated P/E. There are two ways to resolve that, lower share prices, or higher earnings. There is a lot of speculation that AI will bring lower costs and higher earnings. I actually believe that is true, but then you have a lot of people without work and consumption drops. Not to mention the baby boomer retirement is causing a large shift in our demographic and changing their investment strategies, which causes a reduction in capital available. Rising interest rates on government debt will crowd out private debt.

And then were into 6D chess, so I just give up.
 
SC Maintenance said:
I don't disagree with your lines - however the counter argument on this is your starting your blue line at a already highly elevated P/E. There are two ways to resolve that, lower share prices, or higher earnings. There is a lot of speculation that AI will bring lower costs and higher earnings. I actually believe that is true, but then you have a lot of people without work and consumption drops. Not to mention the baby boomer retirement is causing a large shift in our demographic and changing their investment strategies, which causes a reduction in capital available. Rising interest rates on government debt will crowd out private debt.

And then were into 6D chess, so I just give up.
Click to expand...
No one has a clue...that green line is my best guess which is worth slightly more than nothing... ;)
 
Pablo said:
True, stock market has it's pauses.

And it can be cyclical.

But yes despite all efforts to choke it out, control it, regulate it, people gotta live, some actually consume goods and services at varying rates.
Click to expand...
This week has been astronomical to my portfolio. This year as well. But this week, OMG. Tech baby!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Ed_Flecko
FCP Euro blog titled "Air-Cooled Porsche 911 Generations Explained"
Replies
4
Views
428
Brons2
OVERKILL
Saskatchewan government announces support for micro reactor
2
Replies
22
Views
857
SC Maintenance
D
Always wondered why people wear 8 inch boots
2 3
Replies
48
Views
4K
Skippy722
PandaBear
Long term investing and the logics of selling options
2
Replies
28
Views
482
Dave Hess
Jdeere562
Ever climb into the wrong car by mistake?
2
Replies
30
Views
942
hank2
Back
Top