*Investors Blog*

[Pablo]

He can't be any more clear about it. When people say something plainly, in the absence of contradicting evidence, it's best to take them at their word.

"Yet he acknowledged that Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on billions of dollars in cash. The reason isn’t that Buffett and Munger think they can wait for stocks to get even cheaper — the wager known as “timing the market.”

Instead, Munger said bluntly that Berkshire isn’t buying anything “because there’s nothing we can stand buying.”

In other words waiting for the right time.

They buy smart most of the time at the right time that coincides with the the right price.

Yes more people time the market as they get older. I’m not sitting 100% in anything ignoring the world at age 65

Best way to time the market is start when you are young. Front load absolutely as much as possible. Buy VTI or the like with every dime you have. Buy all the time,

As you age start learning and diversifying in every way possible both asset class and more subtle investment methodology. Don’t buy bonds or worse bond funds when rates are historically low.

It IS all about timing

 

[PimTac]

They wont admit it but it looks like Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger are hoarding cash. aka Market Timing

Billionaire Charlie Munger Reveals The Reason Berkshire Hathaway Is Sitting On $88 Billion in Cash

The S&P 500 dipped by 19% in 2022, but stocks still don’t seem cheap to Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s billionaire partner at Berkshire Hathaway. Don't Miss: Why Jason Calacanis and Other Silicon Valley Elites Are Betting On This Startups Vision For Re-Uniting American Families “In my whole...

finance.yahoo.com

There is a bigger reason in my opinion. Buffet and Munger are about to call it quits. Munger is almost 100 years old. He is the real brains of stock picking. Buffet is 92, not far behind.

I think they are preparing for succession. His replacement has already been picked.


Both have had quite the life.

 

[Dave Hess]

Back in 2019 Buffett had $130B cash on the sidelines.
That got me worried, so did the $100B in nightly Fed bank repos, crazy amount of stock buybacks and yield curve inversion.

I said this before, I was selling in late 2019 and locked in some nice gains. Covid hit in early 2020, the market dropped and I slowly got back in as the country was locked down.

I sent a PM to a member here on BITOG (about 2 paragraphs) about my game plan back in late 2019 as to my reasoning for taking profits after a nice run up. I was getting antsy and had timed it well.

It would be nice if he could repost exactly what I wrote him….

I don’t want to say who it is, but I was warning him the market could NOT keep going up, up and up.
I even showed him 100% legit non Photoshopped screenshots of my gains, just to prove I wasn’t BS ing him and I was “heading for the exit” for both my IRA and brokerage account.

At one time 100% of my IRA was Amazon and it had an exponential climb in growth.
Some said I was a dumb dumb to have all that money in just one stock.

Theres nothing wrong with having some cash on the sidelines and waiting for buying opportunities.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Has anyone seen this before? $15B notational of a 1 day T-bill auction tomorrow. I have never seen anything less than 4 weeks?

Thoughts? Debt games. $15B isn't very much - so very strange.

I am tempted to put some money into the auction - see what the deal is?

 

[JeffKeryk]

Back in 2019 Buffett had $130B cash on the sidelines.
That got me worried, so did the $100B in nightly Fed bank repos, crazy amount of stock buybacks and yield curve inversion.

I said this before, I was selling in late 2019 and locked in some nice gains. Covid hit in early 2020, the market dropped and I slowly got back in as the country was locked down.

I sent a PM to a member here on BITOG (about 2 paragraphs) about my game plan back in late 2019 as to my reasoning for taking profits after a nice run up. I was getting antsy and had timed it well.

It would be nice if he could repost exactly what I wrote him….

I don’t want to say who it is, but I was warning him the market could NOT keep going up, up and up.
I even showed him 100% legit non Photoshopped screenshots of my gains, just to prove I wasn’t BS ing him and I was “heading for the exit” for both my IRA and brokerage account.

At one time 100% of my IRA was Amazon and it had an exponential climb in growth.
Some said I was a dumb dumb to have all that money in just one stock.

Theres nothing wrong with having some cash on the sidelines and waiting for buying opportunities.

PM sent...

 

[Pablo]

Has anyone seen this before? $15B notational of a 1 day T-bill auction tomorrow. I have never seen anything less than 4 weeks?

Thoughts? Debt games. $15B isn't very much - so very strange.

I am tempted to put some money into the auction - see what the deal is?

View attachment 158918

Yes

I see all kinds odd orse stuff when I dwelve into the bond world

There is an occasional agency bond that looks nice but can’t seem to able to buy

 

[SC Maintenance]

Yes

I see all kinds odd orse stuff when I dwelve into the bond world

There is an occasional agency bond that looks nice but can’t seem to able to buy

I realize the bond world is crazy. This is a treasury. The only thing normally crazy about treasuries is the amount they sell, otherwise there pretty standard and consistent.

According to Treasury direct: "We sell Treasury Bills (Bills) for terms ranging from four weeks to 52 weeks."

Can't find any reference to a previous 1 day treasury auction.

 

[Pablo]

I realize the bond world is crazy. This is a treasury. The only thing normally crazy about treasuries is the amount they sell, otherwise there pretty standard and consistent.

According to Treasury direct: "We sell Treasury Bills (Bills) for terms ranging from four weeks to 52 weeks."

Can't find any reference to a previous 1 day treasury auction.

No idea. PDF has further information?

 

[SC Maintenance]

No idea. PDF has further information?

Just the usual - dates, amount for auction, etc.

Strangely it says original issue in February so maybe it was planned? But it was literally just announced today at 11:00AM for auction tomorrow - meaning non competitive bids go in today. Typical is much longer notice - like a week to a month depending on the issues. I can't seem to attach a PDF for some reason but this is all of it

 

[Pablo]

Probably planned for fake drama

 

[Pablo]

Advance Auto AAP down 30%....Ouch

Hilarious, from Dec 2022:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566495-advance-auto-parts-is-a-strong-buy-heres-why

 

[SC Maintenance]

Hilarious, from Dec 2022:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566495-advance-auto-parts-is-a-strong-buy-heres-why

Your link takes me here somehow, which while interesting - i don't have a hydrostatic transmission?

Somehow you renamed your seeking alpha link a Amsoil link.

 

[Pablo]

Your link takes me here somehow, which while interesting - i don't have a hydrostatic transmission?

Somehow you renamed your seeking alpha link a Amsoil link.

I didn't rename it.

Too funny. I just copied and pasted the link to Seeking Alpha in the reply box.

I guess we learned that if you do that and the BB software creates hypertext it can/will use a previous link.

 

[PimTac]

Hilarious, from Dec 2022:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566495-advance-auto-parts-is-a-strong-buy-heres-why

Someone should call them on that. Sounds like something Jimmy Cramer would have done.

 

[Pablo]

Read the comments

 

[PimTac]

Read the comments

 

[JHZR2]

He can't be any more clear about it. When people say something plainly, in the absence of contradicting evidence, it's best to take them at their word.

"Yet he acknowledged that Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on billions of dollars in cash. The reason isn’t that Buffett and Munger think they can wait for stocks to get even cheaper — the wager known as “timing the market.”

Instead, Munger said bluntly that Berkshire isn’t buying anything “because there’s nothing we can stand buying.”

Which really is no different.

I see very little to buy. So I’m keeping money on the sidelines. You could argue that I’m timing things as a result… I also DCA in some accounts.

These folks buy and sell too, based upon their estimates of intrinsic value.

 

[Pablo]

I bought VZ this AM on the dip from the Amazon negotiation news.

 

[JHZR2]

Back in 2019 Buffett had $130B cash on the sidelines.
That got me worried, so did the $100B in nightly Fed bank repos, crazy amount of stock buybacks and yield curve inversion.

I said this before, I was selling in late 2019 and locked in some nice gains. Covid hit in early 2020, the market dropped and I slowly got back in as the country was locked down.

I sent a PM to a member here on BITOG (about 2 paragraphs) about my game plan back in late 2019 as to my reasoning for taking profits after a nice run up. I was getting antsy and had timed it well.

It would be nice if he could repost exactly what I wrote him….

I don’t want to say who it is, but I was warning him the market could NOT keep going up, up and up.
I even showed him 100% legit non Photoshopped screenshots of my gains, just to prove I wasn’t BS ing him and I was “heading for the exit” for both my IRA and brokerage account.

At one time 100% of my IRA was Amazon and it had an exponential climb in growth.
Some said I was a dumb dumb to have all that money in just one stock.

Theres nothing wrong with having some cash on the sidelines and waiting for buying opportunities.

I can attest.

 

[Warstud]

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