Investing Strategies. What is your move?

[SC Maintenance]

If you think YOU can compete with Buffett, Graham, and Dalio you are delusional. Every single one of them has written a book that says you can't compete with me so stop trying - literally that is the take-home message from ALL THREE of them...lol.

Reminds me of a conversation I just had with SIL who works in private equity out of Boston. You have to minimally have $5M liquid (not in real estate) to even be a client. Then you "invest" and they buy up companies and keep the profitable ones and break up and sell the not-so-profitable ones. She has an MBA from Northeastern and her full-time job is to manage the department that writes checks to investors. They average a 20% return and she has days where she writes checks that total half a billion dollars. Awesome, right?! Well no, who the hell has $5M liquid and so this "opportunity" isn't available to 99% of people. Likewise, the opportunities available to Buffett and Dalio aren't available to most people and that's why they both wrote books that specifically advocate not doing what they do.

You are gambling, cool I get it, you like gambling, and I'm not trying to change your mind but you're not the only person reading this thread. My point is let's just call it what it is. Hopefully, anyone who thinks you're onto something will first go and read A Random Walk Down Wall Street, The Psychology of Money, The Warren Buffett Way, The Intelligent Investor, Principles, and The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need before they think they can beat the market. This isn't my idea - these are the conclusions of the men listed above.

Your being exceptionally judgmental and arrogant given you don't know me.

Because I strive to understand markets I am gambling? Because I choose with a small amount of my money to invest in Exxon or Kinder Morgan when oil is priced too low I am gambling. I don't have to compete with Buffet. Buffet telegraphs what he is buying - you can buy the same things if you want. No I can't compete with Dalio on volatility, and I can't compete with Citadel or the squid on derivatives or momentum. So I don't even try. I try to understand markets, to understand where the little guy can do well, and where they can not.

No one here is telling anyone to bet their future on any particular stock. Its obvious if you read 72 pages of this thread and the other investment thread this is a hobby for those here. No one is telling anyone to do anything in fact. Apparently free thought bothers you.

 

[Pablo]

If you think YOU can compete with Buffett, Graham, and Dalio you are delusional. Every single one of them has written a book that says you can't compete with me so stop trying - literally that is the take-home message from ALL THREE of them...lol.

Reminds me of a conversation I just had with SIL who works in private equity out of Boston. You have to minimally have $5M liquid (not in real estate) to even be a client. Then you "invest" and they buy up companies and keep the profitable ones and break up and sell the not-so-profitable ones. She has an MBA from Northeastern and her full-time job is to manage the department that writes checks to investors. They average a 20% return and she has days where she writes checks that total half a billion dollars. Awesome, right?! Well no, who the hell has $5M liquid and so this "opportunity" isn't available to 99% of people. Likewise, the opportunities available to Buffett and Dalio aren't available to most people and that's why they both wrote books that specifically advocate not doing what they do.

You are gambling, cool I get it, you like gambling, and I'm not trying to change your mind but you're not the only person reading this thread. My point is let's just call it what it is. Hopefully, anyone who thinks you're onto something will first go and read A Random Walk Down Wall Street, The Psychology of Money, The Warren Buffett Way, The Intelligent Investor, Principles, and The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need before they think they can beat the market. This isn't my idea - these are the conclusions of the men listed above.

Lastly, where is there a rule that only people who wish to gamble can participate? The title is, "Investing Strategies. What is your move?" I'm talking about investing and my move is to not guess the market. How's that not applicable?

It's percentage play. Not binary as you imply.

 

[PWMDMD]

Your being exceptionally judgmental and arrogant given you don't know me.

Because I strive to understand markets I am gambling? Because I choose with a small amount of my money to invest in Exxon or Kinder Morgan when oil is priced too low I am gambling. I don't have to compete with Buffet. Buffet telegraphs what he is buying - you can buy the same things if you want. No I can't compete with Dalio on volatility, and I can't compete with Citadel or the squid on derivatives or momentum. So I don't even try. I try to understand markets, to understand where the little guy can do well, and where they can not.

No one here is telling anyone to bet their future on any particular stock. Its obvious if you read 72 pages of this thread and the other investment thread this is a hobby for those here. No one is telling anyone to do anything in fact. Apparently free thought bothers you.

Um...you replied to my post on 2008/2009 not being as bad as people predicted/remember and my take to stay the course. Then YOU replied that had you been able to predict 2008 and 2020 you'd be retired to which I replied with my take on predicting and investing in down markets. I did not seek you out and my original post had little to do with buy and hold vs being able to predict the market but since YOU brought it up and shared YOUR opinion I shared MY opinion of not being able to predict the market and my investment strategy. You then replied this was "off-topic" which it was not and that opened the door to me supporting my case for the benefit of other readers. You chose to go down this path...not me.

 

[PimTac]

In my opinion this is the most discombobulated economy I have experienced in my lifetime. We are told that everything is fine. The numbers look good. But the stories I hear and what I see tell the opposite.

For me, that tells me that safety is a top priority. My age plays a role as well in that. Solid dividend paying stocks are a plus. Fixed income is a mess right now but there are some bright spots.

How long will this go on? Nobody knows.

 

[PWMDMD]

In my opinion this is the most discombobulated economy I have experienced in my lifetime. We are told that everything is fine. The numbers look good. But the stories I hear and what I see tell the opposite.

For me, that tells me that safety is a top priority. My age plays a role as well in that. Solid dividend paying stocks are a plus. Fixed income is a mess right now but there are some bright spots.

How long will this go on? Nobody knows.

I’m interested - what stories do you hear and see? I ask because here in central MA it’s life as usual. No one is getting laid off. Businesses are doing well. No one is being foreclosed on. Ok, some oversized companies who serviced the CV-19 sit at home and order things economy are correcting for bloat but what else is so concerning?

Is this narrative something you’re being told on TV or are you hearing/seeing first-person stories? As I said, I heard all of this in 2008 too and my life went on as usual. BTW…if you’re close to retirement I’m in no way second guessing “safe moves”. Just wonder if it’s different in other parts of the country because I’m sure it was different in other parts of the country in 2008 too.

 

[Dave Hess]

How much does a person need in their brokerage account to be considered a ‘successful’ investor ?

$1M….. $2M….. $5M…., etc… ?

I‘m wondering what’s the correct balance needed.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Um...you replied to my post on 2008/2009 not being as bad as people predicted/remember and my take to stay the course. Then YOU replied that had you been able to predict 2008 and 2020 you'd be retired to which I replied with my take on predicting and investing in down markets. I did not seek you out and my original post had little to do with buy and hold vs being able to predict the market but since YOU brought it up and shared YOUR opinion I shared MY opinion of not being able to predict the market and my investment strategy. You then replied this was "off-topic" which it was not and that opened the door to me supporting my case for the benefit of other readers. You chose to go down this path...not me.

Incorrect again, I specifically responded to your post (Universal was jam packed and restaurants are full and your personal collections are Steller) and simply pointed that consumer spending and behavior is not a leading indicator. In fact its a lagging indicator, and I pointed out some leading indicators you might care to look at if your so inclined. I didn't even go so far to make a prediction other than to say I believe a change is inevitable, but was clear that's simply my opinion alone.

Your mission from there was to say I was wrong, invoke me as a money loosing idiot, a gambler, and dumber than buffet. I made no particular attacks on you at all, other than to ask why your here at all since its not a hobby you care to participate in - your words, not mine?

 

[PWMDMD]

How much does a person need in their brokerage account to be considered a ‘successful’ investor ?

$1M….. $2M….. $5M…., etc… ?

I‘m wondering what’s the correct balance needed.

Whatever balance allows someone to reach their goals.

 

[alarmguy]

How much does a person need in their brokerage account to be considered a ‘successful’ investor ?

$1M….. $2M….. $5M…., etc… ?

I‘m wondering what’s the correct balance needed.

hmmm... I guess "successful" is ones perception.
Also, is that realized or unrealized funds in a brokerage?
There are many other avenues besides brokerages such as real property owners as one example.

 

[alarmguy]

Whatever balance allows someone to reach their goals.

Perfect

 

[PWMDMD]

Your mission from there was to say I was wrong, invoke me as a money loosing idiot, a gambler, and dumber than buffet.

And? Your words, not mine.

 

[PWMDMD]

Incorrect again, I specifically responded to your post (Universal was jam packed and restaurants are full and your personal collections are Steller) and simply pointed that consumer spending and behavior is not a leading indicator. In fact its a lagging indicator, and I pointed out some leading indicators you might care to look at if your so inclined. I didn't even go so far to make a prediction other than to say I believe a change is inevitable, but was clear that's simply my opinion alone.

Your mission from there was to say I was wrong, invoke me as a money loosing idiot, a gambler, and dumber than buffet. I made no particular attacks on you at all, other than to ask why your here at all since its not a hobby you care to participate in - your words, not mine?

There are no real leading indicators - all are lagging - that’s the entire point. Admittedly, I believe in efficient market hypothesis because it seems most consistent with reality. Even the inverted yield curve is sometimes not an indicator of a recession. Everything lags the market…you admittedly lagged the market in 2008 and 2020 because except for luck that’s how it works.

 

[PimTac]

How much does a person need in their brokerage account to be considered a ‘successful’ investor ?

$1M….. $2M….. $5M…., etc… ?

I‘m wondering what’s the correct balance needed.

That will depend on the individuals time frame. Someone like me that started 40 years ago with the prevailing wages of that time will have less that someone starting today.

It also depends on the spending habit of that individual. For some, $2 million will be more than they ever dreamed of, for others it will not last long.

Lots of “one day millionaires “ in the world.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Everything lags the market…you admittedly lagged the market in 2008 and 2020 because except for luck that’s how it works.

Your previously mentioned hero's Dalio and Buffet would strongly disagree with you on both facts - there are leading indicators and its not all luck - although neither are perfect. If it were simple math no one would study it.

 

[PWMDMD]

Your previously mentioned hero's Dalio and Buffet would strongly disagree with you on both facts - there are leading indicators and its not all luck - although neither are perfect. If it were simple math no one would study it.

For the average person it is all luck and they don’t disagree - that’s why they wrote it in their books.

The greatest stock picker of all time Berkshire has had its fair share of years where it didn’t beat the S&P. While he’s had ups with a greater magnitude than his downs he’s also lost lots of money on lots of deals. But he’s the greatest investor of all time and he has access to things we don’t and it’s his full-time job while be surrounded by other really smart people who also do it full time.

The fact Michael Jordan existed and was great is not solid rationale on why we can all be Michael Jordan. Buffet’s advice to investors is buy a low cost total market index fund because it’s solid advice.

 

[SC Maintenance]

For the average person it is all luck and they don’t disagree - that’s why they wrote it in their books.

The greatest stock picker of all time Berkshire has had its fair share of years where it didn’t beat the S&P. While he’s had ups with a greater magnitude than his downs he’s also lost lots of money on lots of deals. But he’s the greatest investor of all time and he has access to things we don’t and it’s his full-time job while be surrounded by other really smart people who also do it full time.

The fact Michael Jordan existed and was great is not solid rationale on why we can all be Michael Jordan. Buffet’s advice to investors is buy a low cost total market index fund because it’s solid advice.

By your analogy only people good enough to be as good as Michael Jordan should play basketball, and only people with the resource as Buffet should attempt to learn about markets and perhaps make a few investments on their own.

It perplexes me that it apparently bothers you greatly that others choose to study something there not experts on, to the point of coming here to disparage them.

 

[PWMDMD]

By your analogy only people good enough to be as good as Michael Jordan should play basketball, and only people with the resource as Buffet should attempt to learn about markets and perhaps make a few investments on their own.

It perplexes me that it apparently bothers you greatly that others choose to study something there not experts on, to the point of coming here to disparage them.

I’m simply sharing what the data and several of the authors of the books mentioned wrote in those books based on that data. Take it or leave it but has it occurred to you that I’m not exclusively talking to you with every comment? I’m perplexed why you take my very general statements on investing so personally?

Read A Random Walk Down Wall Street - it is kind of dry but is entirely data-driven and he covers the many many many reasons why the market going up or down on any given day is essentially a random walk event that can not be predicted over the long-term and the basis for this being the efficient market hypothesis.

 

[ZeeOSix]

How much does a person need in their brokerage account to be considered a ‘successful’ investor ?

$1M….. $2M….. $5M…., etc… ?

I‘m wondering what’s the correct balance needed.

Enough to make some money, and not so much that if you lose your arse you can't keep living like you need/want to.

 

[99Saturn]

How much does a person need in their brokerage account to be considered a ‘successful’ investor ?

$1M….. $2M….. $5M…., etc… ?

I‘m wondering what’s the correct balance needed.

What’s one’s definition of successful?

 

[Dave Hess]

What’s one’s definition of successful?

At the end of the year you made more money than you lost.

I admit every year I lose some money, luckily I don’t worry about it because the gains outweigh the losses.