Investing Strategies. What is your move?
- Thread starter PimTac
- Start date
JHZR2
Staff member
I was tempted to buy a bunch of Pt the other day.
Hindsight is 20/20.
Hindsight is 20/20.
Keep a very close watch on this.
www.aol.com
Railroad union members vote 99.5% to authorize a July 18 nationwide strike
The vote gives the leadership of the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen the right to call a strike July 18. Union train workers have been without a contract since 2019.
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If you calculate CPI the way the government did before 1980, as John Williams does on his ShadowStats website, it shows inflation above 15%.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
Huge miss on the CPI report. Analysts expects 8.8%. Actual numbers is 9.1%.
www.cnbc.com
Dow futures drop 300 points after much hotter-than-expected inflation report
The consumer price index rose 9.1% on a year-over-year basis in June, coming in even higher than May's 8.6% reading.
Interesting that so many commodities have already cooled off. That report is early June weighted. See what the asinine Fed does.
The chatter seems to be centered around the timing of the peak of the inflation cycle. The experts say it has peaked but their estimates that it peaked in May were obviously incorrect. Now they are saying that June is the peak.
I’m no expert of course but trying to call a peak here is a folly. The Fed is still too far behind the curve at this point.
Yeah what ANY of the HEADS words NOW are just BUTT covering.
Now we just wait for the PPI number to come out tomorrow. That will bring some clarity.
The current CPI via ShadowStats is 16.8%. I’d expect it to hit 17% after todays number.
We are seeing the beginnings of that but it is in specific sectors. Housing started to slow a couple of months back and is now accelerating. On the other hand people are traveling post lockdown.
I am watching the shipping sector especially trucking and railroad.
Bottom line is, there is nothing pretty about the Consumer Price Index number. Gas has dropped somewhat but not enough. Groceries are through the roof.
Interest rate increases will slow the economy but will cost more in the immeadiate term.
Interest rate increases will slow the economy but will cost more in the immeadiate term.
The only good thing is its backwards looking, not present or forward looking.
At present all commodities prices have come way down from may june july. Will they stay down? That's the $50 question.
If china quits locking down their cities oil will go UP again.
ShadowStats just released their CPI number.
17.3%
www.shadowstats.com
17.3%
Shadow Government Statistics - Home Page
www.shadowstats.com
Wowza, that sucks! It doesn't take long and your worth half as much as you were before.ShadowStats just released their CPI number.
17.3%
Shadow Government Statistics - Home Page
I think it’s important to view trends rather than a month to month outlook like the Fed and DC are pushing. I’m not trying to get political here but inevitably politics and the economy tend to blend together.
I would look at a six month trend in regards to the CPI and PPI. The July number might go down but that will be just a one month snapshot.
Housing will be a huge factor going forward.
Just for a reference and comparison, note the inflation rate of March, 1980 as stated in this paragraph from todays commentary on ShadowStats.
“The ShadowStats Alternate CPI Annual Inflation Index level (1980 Base) broadly has been confirmed by the general movements of, and increases in the Price of Gold since President Nixon closed the Gold Window in 1971. That is reviewed and will be detailed anew in pending No. 1461. Designed to reverse the inflation-reduction methodological gimmicks of the early 1980s, and after, the headline ShadowStats Alternate Inflation Index in June 2022 jumped to 17.3% year-to-year, from 16.5% in April and 16.8% in March 2022, on top of the underlying headline CPI-U rebound, up from 16.0% in February, 15.6% in January, 15.1% in December 2021 and 14.9% in November, again, with the headline June 2022 inflation at its strongest reading since 17.6% in the traditional CPI reporting of June of 1947, topping an interim peak of 14.8% in March of 1980, when the headline CPI of the time still was the same series that would become the ShadowStats Alternate Inflation Series, after January 1982.”
Agreed. This is true of just about everything economic. Especially cause and effect. Short term is simply a result of longer term factors; reaction results take time to emerge.
Not to mention regional, country and world wide economic conditions.
6 months is nothing in Economics. Economic recovery takes at least twice as long as decline. Often times years.
Federal Chairman "big balls" Paul Volcker in the early 80s came in and fixed the 15% inflation problem by raising the fed rate to 20%. By 1983 inflation was down to 3%.
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