I actually agree with you. Jacking UP rates, is not the magic bullet in all circumstances......
Investing Strategies. What is your move?
- Thread starter PimTac
- Start date
Yeah, I think lowering them so low was a mistake too... I mean, rarely does the Fed get things right but since they are on the public payroll they dont have to I guess. *LOL*
Bear market rallys/dead cat bounces happen. When will it end? It's any bodies guess.
I'm selling at the money weekly puts in inverse ETFs, like TECS FAZ, TZA, SOXS, SPXS.
I'm selling in the money monthly puts in ERX, GUSH, etc.
Also, selling at the money monthly puts in NUGT, RGLD.
Also, selling at the money monthly puts in NUGT, RGLD.
This is a fantastic write up from Liz Ann Sonders over at Charles Schwab. It’s a bit long but we’ll worth the time.
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/mid-year-outlook-us-stocks-and-economy
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/mid-year-outlook-us-stocks-and-economy
My 2 key take-aways are:
- "Stocks have priced in a lot of negative news". That is, the equity market is a forward looking model; current corporate results are an indicator but not the driver.
- "we always remind investors that panic is not an investing strategy." Back in my boxing days, I learned that the worst thing you can do when you get hit is to panic. Stick to your plan and adjust as necessary. When a storm comes, and it will, weather it. Long term baby.
We need 75 basis point increases at the next 4 meetings.
The medicine will not be good but it’s needed.
If they raise rates to slow the buying/demand it should bring prices down. Why don't you think it will work and what else can they do to slow the rate of inflation ?
Inflation can be, and it is currently being created by large and sudden government spending. The huge amount of money that has been dumped into this economy by the government has prompted this surge of inflation.
Look at how swift and drastic the inflation rate has climbed in just the last 18 months.
So, the Fed must raise rates and much higher than they are now plus, the government must stop with the huge injections of money. These injections are beyond the normal spending.
No. The higher than average global inflation surge is attributed the the pandemic and resulting supply chain crisis for certain goods. Add to that the Russian aggression which contributed to energy costs. As a result, many countries have seen the highest inflation rates in decades.
Worldwide government spending is a result of the above, not a cause. In that respect, it is an indirect contributing factor.
Yes.....they have been since April.
What's your theory?
Fair enough.
- Care to elaborate? I am interested where I might be wrong.
- Can you speak to the current hyper inflation?
I don’t want to push this too far as it will get too political but here goes.
When a certain entity in Washington DC throws out a trillion dollars like nothing with no accountability or oversight then that is inflationary. The largest periods of inflation have come after huge spending sprees, usually wars. The sad reality is that a lot of that money is squandered.
Fuel prices are a huge factor as well. Everything is impacted by high fuel prices. Policies that are being implemented to lower fuel prices are all show. Release some oil from the Strategic Reserve and claim victory but a week later prices restart their climb back up. We should be increasing production.
When a certain entity in Washington DC throws out a trillion dollars like nothing with no accountability or oversight then that is inflationary. The largest periods of inflation have come after huge spending sprees, usually wars. The sad reality is that a lot of that money is squandered.
Fuel prices are a huge factor as well. Everything is impacted by high fuel prices. Policies that are being implemented to lower fuel prices are all show. Release some oil from the Strategic Reserve and claim victory but a week later prices restart their climb back up. We should be increasing production.
Doesn't explain the worldwide inflation the entire world is experiencing.
Hardly specific.
The fuel price increases are largely due to oil company profits. Oil is sold on the world market; it is not controlled by any single country. By the way, no one is stopping the oil companies from increasing production, right?
I'm sure you know there is global inflation, but you are hardly speaking to that.
My explanation is based 100% in Economics. Your arguement has no such basis.
Well what do you know? We had normal background inflation until the spring of 2021 and then it took off from there. 
This was long before the Ukraine invasion.
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/
This was long before the Ukraine invasion.
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/
I minored in Economics at San Jose State University and continue to study the subject.Well what do you know? We had normal background inflation until the spring of 2021 and then it took off from there.
This was long before the Ukraine invasion.
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/
You posted inflation numbers; results of events.
Isn't this duscussion about the causes of the current worldwide hyper inflation?
The Ukraine invasion caused a rise in crude futures, which have settled somewhat. The oil companies are enjoying record profits.
Worldwide inflation rose long before that, but energy prices are certainly a big contrubuter.
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