Investing Strategies. What is your move?

Just a personal observation today. I met with two others for breakfast at a restaurant that is reasonably priced despite the current events. One ordered SOS, the other had French toast and I had a ham and cheese omelette. The bill was $50.

If we had gone anywhere else the bill would likely be $10-15 higher. We still left a generous tip.

We even had entertainment as we watched a couple going through the dumpster only to be interrupted by the garbage service stopping to empty it. Also, a burned out car in the parking lot was picked up and hauled off on a flatbed, part of the weekend leftovers is my guess.
 
Sold ALL my VICI this AM. Had a very good run as it paid me over the years (April or so 2020). Also bought and sold in various accounts for some 4 point runs.

Bought SMDD and SQQQ this AM.

Glad I sold half my AMRK - got hammered today - my remaining shares are still green. Will buy more under $65
 
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Hysteresis.

"Target Warns Profit Will Drop Because It Has Too Much Stuff" (Real WSJ headline)

Inflation?

No. Yes. Sorta.

Stagflation?

Maybe.

Deflation?

Soon.

Shutdowntheeconomyflation?

Hysteresis.

"Hysteresis can be a dynamic lag between an input and an output that disappears if the input is varied more slowly"

" Systems with hysteresis are nonlinear, and can be mathematically challenging to model."

The market won't and doesn't like monkeys cranking the knobs too much too fast. Shuttering our economy was one of the stupidest socio-ecomomic-real human moves in a long long long time. (Not a political opinion, a market/economy opinion)
 
I had to look up hysteresis.

This whole notion that we have to disrupt things to induce change is full of problems. It is worse when the proposed change is not ready for prime time.

Shuttering the economy was indeed stupid. The after effects will be felt for some time to come.
 
Pablo said:
Hysteresis.

"Target Warns Profit Will Drop Because It Has Too Much Stuff" (Real WSJ headline)

Inflation?

No. Yes. Sorta.

Stagflation?

Maybe.

Deflation?

Soon.

Shutdowntheeconomyflation?

Hysteresis.

"Hysteresis can be a dynamic lag between an input and an output that disappears if the input is varied more slowly"

" Systems with hysteresis are nonlinear, and can be mathematically challenging to model."

The market won't and doesn't like monkeys cranking the knobs too much too fast. Shuttering our economy was one of the stupidest socio-ecomomic-real human moves in a long long long time. (Not a political opinion, a market/economy opinion)
Click to expand...
Agree that is not a political statement. But from a socio economic point of view that can only be true taken in a vacuum.
 
PimTac said:
Just a personal observation today. I met with two others for breakfast at a restaurant that is reasonably priced despite the current events. One ordered SOS, the other had French toast and I had a ham and cheese omelette. The bill was $50.

If we had gone anywhere else the bill would likely be $10-15 higher. We still left a generous tip.

We even had entertainment as we watched a couple going through the dumpster only to be interrupted by the garbage service stopping to empty it. Also, a burned out car in the parking lot was picked up and hauled off on a flatbed, part of the weekend leftovers is my guess.
Click to expand...

Sounds like a fantastic area! :ROFLMAO:
 
Fitter30 said:
Look at all the refineries that have closed we're not short of oil refineries are at 100% capacity.
https://www.google.com/url?q=https:...AQFnoECAIQAg&usg=AOvVaw1xBuLnyfVR0-LZ5bJjBu0v
Click to expand...
I don't recall were I saw it, but an interview with an oil company CEO said they don't want to put the money and man power into firing up existing wells or drilling new oil wells, then have demand drop again. They'd rather just keep making lots of money on the ever increasing oil prices. As far as gas and diesel refineries, could be a similar reason. If there are that many shutdown refineries available, and more oil than can be refined, then someone needs to get those refinaries going again. Everyone is riding the inflation band wagon, because more profits from it are attractive. I'd bet there is quite a bit of false inflation going on, just to goudge for higher profits.

Oil and gas refining companies don't care how much oil or gas goes up, all they care about is the bottom line, even if it wreaks havoic on the consumers. If gas was $20/gal and they still made huge profits without expanding output, they really wouldn't care.
 
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Despite the bearish market, Chevron has had an excellent year to date up 53.56% and a nice dividend to boot. I mention this because of the thread regarding the new Kixx BIO1 oil and the involvement of Novvi of which Chevron is a equity investor. Chevron is investing a lot in renewable energy.


https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/CVX
 
Even if one wishes to blame administrative blunders for the current situation (lets not go there), one has to admit that the perfect storm has been brewing well. We have been due for a market correction for some time now. It is a natural part of our economic cycle. The pandemic had global impact and is still having an impact (lockdown of major suppliers/shortages). Odd labor shortages handled by increased wages (more inflation). Just as we are starting to pull out, the Ukrainian war erupts to start another global wave - fuel, food, fertilizer, and the list goes on. No matter how well we might have handled this, could we overcome the global nature of it all (i.e., chip shortage)?

Please, don't introduce politics.
 
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ZeeOSix said:
I don't recall were I saw it, but an interview with an oil company CEO said they don't want to put the money and man power into firing up existing wells or drilling new oil wells, then have demand drop again..
Click to expand...
They're not nearly worried about demand as they are about having the rug being pulled out from under them by......... I'll give you three guesses.

Like I said last Sunday "The current political climate, policies, regulations are ANTI FOSSIL FUELS. Thus, no fossil fuel businessman, or CEO, or Board of Directors, or banker, etc is gonna invest/re-invest in the fossil fuel business/industry until things change. So, in the meantime, they'll pay off debt (what a concept), buy back stock, and pay dividends, instead of reinvesting it, which is what they would prefer to do with it.
 
jetman said:
They're not nearly worried about demand as they are about having the rug being pulled out from under them by......... I'll give you three guesses.

Like I said last Sunday "The current political climate, policies, regulations are ANTI FOSSIL FUELS. Thus, no fossil fuel businessman, or CEO, or Board of Directors, or banker, etc is gonna invest/re-invest in the fossil fuel business/industry until things change. So, in the meantime, they'll pay off debt (what a concept), buy back stock, and pay dividends, instead of reinvesting it, which is what they would prefer to do with it.
Click to expand...
I think it's more of an excuse by the oil companies than reality so they can reap huge profits without spending more money on increasing output to meet demand. The demand for oil and gasoline isn't going to magically drop a huge amount overnight, or even within many years. Sure, EVs are becoming more popular, but they are not going to overtake ICE on the roads by any significant numbers for at least a decade or two, regardless of who's trying to push that goal.

What's going to decrease demand way before and way more than more EVs on the road is the ever increasing cost of oil and gasoline. At some point, people will get sick and tired of paying $80-100 to fill up their gas tanks, and will eventually cut back on driving, etc. The oil companies are just waiting to see where that balance ends up, and in the mean time sit back and watch the cash roll in without spending capital to increase production.
 
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