Investing Strategies. What is your move?

[Dave Hess]

By the beginning of 2022 I quit making bullish bets in all but 1 sector (oil & gas).

If the federal reserve chickens out and stops raising interest rates and starts buying assets again (like I expect them to do), inflation will skyrocket even higher and I'll go long many more commodity stocks and/or sell the short dated put options. And, I'll short anything else, especially tech.

So far this yr (2022) I'm doing well selling short dated bullish put options in leveraged Oil & Gas ETFs like XOP, ERX, GUSH.

I'm doing even better shorting the tech sector by selling monthly puts options in the leveraged inverse etf like TECS.

Happy trading/investing!

jetman,

Yep, not surprised you made some nice gains.
You kept your eyes on your weather radar (aviation pun) and saw the stormy weather on the horizon, then made smart moves to avoid the storm.

I made a little money in SQQQ and TZA this year.

You seem to be a more advanced trader…. unlike half of the younger Robinhood crowd that lost all their money trading options and went back to playing Xbox in their mommy’s basement.

 

[alarmguy]

..
And yes, the crash was not the problem it was the failure of the Fed to prop up the economy to keep it funning and keep people working.

To me, this is the problem. We are no longer forced to live within our means.
People expect to be bailed out for bad decisions, society never pays a price.
Sad, the 45 year old and under crowed are seriously going to pay for the last 20 years or recklessness (and still counting) But this is what they expect and vote for. The day will come for the price to be paid. You cant keep living on borrowing money even you preach that as I do.
When was the last time debt was repaid? Decades ago., now we borrow to pay debt and bailout uncomfortable living.
The price IS going to be paid.

"Give kids a fighting chance!" I agree with your statement, so why are we handing them over 30 TRILLION dollars in debt and still counting with no end in site?

 

[alarmguy]

I have to disagree with the worsening bear market and doom economy comments.
Why? Because I never think in a short term basis.
Our economy is extremely resilient and the market has shown how it can rebound and grow.
Go back 2 years ago for a real world example.

Get a balanced portfolio and stay the course.
Does this work? In my case it has.

Going forward, I wish you the best.

I dont agree that our economy is extremely resilient. We are living on borrowed money. How can we call it resilient if the government felt a need to borrow, spend and pump into the economy an extra TWENTY TRILLION dollars since 2008 and its not in anyway stopping or slowing down?
Wouldnt it be reasonable to expect someday that there will be a great big problem? Borrowing money and not paying it back?
Just let me know when there is a plan to pay it back and then I might change my mind. I just dont even see it happening until a depression.

Our economy is a house of cards and honestly that of the world, the youth (under 45 crowd and unborn) IS going to pay, around the world, the 1930s is going to look like a cake walk, so I do agree prepare and invest wisely, I think we still have another decade or two at the most, heck maybe only a year or two I dont know.
NOT a political statement in anyway, discussion about finances only. Here are the facts = https://www.thebalance.com/national-debt-by-year-compared-to-gdp-and-major-events-3306287

Resilient? https://usdebtclock.org

Not all gloom and doom but something has to give. Maybe another Ross Perot to teach the nation about finance. Its not to late to turn it around but may be to late for people to accept what is and the sacrifice that will need to be made.

 

[Dave Hess]

alarmguy,

Ive said a few times the USA is on a very slippery debt slope, especially when elected folks want to give folks free stuff while you and I have to pay for it.

Occupy Wall Street 2.0 and young folks demanding free stuff because they deserve it.

 

[Warstud]

I dont agree that our economy is extremely resilient. We are living on borrowed money. How can we call it resilient if the government felt a need to borrow, spend and pump into the economy an extra TWENTY TRILLION dollars since 2008 and its not in anyway stopping or slowing down?
Wouldnt it be reasonable to expect someday that there will be a great big problem? Borrowing money and not paying it back?
Just let me know when there is a plan to pay it back and then I might change my mind. I just dont even see it happening until a depression.

Our economy is a house of cards and honestly that of the world, the youth (under 45 crowd and unborn) IS going to pay, around the world, the 1930s is going to look like a cake walk, so I do agree prepare and invest wisely, I think we still have another decade or two at the most, heck maybe only a year or two I dont know.

Alarmguy: FYI Your talking to someone who likes to pay taxes.

 

[JTK]

My response based on my rudimentary layperson perspective of this: With my 403B I was told to make it well diversified and adjust the risk to your age/retirement future. Visit it annually and make minor adjustments. Then - let it ride through the ups and downs. During down times, I was told you are buying more shares at lower prices - ready to grow better during the up times.

We have a few (maybe one?) opposing views in this thread that suggests it is better to pull your money out at predicted down times to protect its value, then get back in during the bottom (lower shares cost) to ride the roller coaster back up.

In some ways, aren't both styles the same thing? In the end, there are no guarantees. War and/or depression can wipe out what we presume history will repeat. My dad (RIP) always kind of laughed at Federally protected banks, loans, etc.. - he said "what if the government/economy collapses?".

At my one year +/- count down to retirement, what I have learned is that people have arrived at successful retirement income with MANY different methods. Be cautious to believe anyone that suggests their way is better. I have seen as many people crash and burn as ones that exceeded expectation.

I was told much the same from my seasoned comrades when I was a young fella, first getting into my 401K back in the mid 1990s. They're all long since retired, I'm the old guy now dolling out advice when asked, and I'm amazed at the guys I work with now who have little to nothing in their 401K's. Some of them are only in their 30's, but some are older than me!

I've been with Fidelity since ~1997 and keep a mix of investments that I fiddle with every couple of years at best. I am not an investor and do not play the market at all outside of my fidelity account.

I'm worried sick over it at the moment.

 

[Dave Hess]

JTK,

Do you get a pension at work ?

 

[JTK]

JTK,

Do you get a pension at work ?

Yes, those of us hired before ~2004 with my employer still get a defined monthly pension that grows with time. It's not anything huge, but it's decent.

Those hired after that point get a lump sum pension payment along with their 401K. The lump sum isn't a life changer.

 

[alarmguy]

alarmguy,

Ive said a few times the USA is on a very slippery debt slope, especially when elected folks want to give folks free stuff while you and I have to pay for it.

Occupy Wall Street 2.0 and young folks demanding free stuff because they deserve it.

Yes, I know you have, not sure how long we knew each other in here but I have always been for balanced budgets and agree completely on the rest of your statement.
I still remember back around 2008, preaching to my family, I think I most likely was the only one that I knew that was against the policies of the Fed pumping things up. I still remember, "yeah but if we dont do this then this will happen" ... well, we should have let "this will happen, happen"

If we never feel the pain, we will never change but someday we will feel the pain because all options will be exhausted.
WIth this said, I still never time learned (thank god) not to fight the stock market. SO Im going with the flow, I have NO CLUE which way it is going to go.
Of course my common sense says we are doomed and I should get out but Im staying in right now. I feel their is too much negativity for the market to crash and think we may have one more major rally. But here I go again, fighting the direction of the market, I caution all others not do what I do. *LOL*

 

[Doc8404]

at 48 years old, I am riding this out.

80% of my funds are life index funds with some at 2030 and 2040.
A big aggressive but I am not changing now.

 

[PimTac]

Huge miss on Private Payrolls Report this morning.


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/02/adp-jobs-report-may-2022.html

 

[jetman]

Yep, recession and layoffs are near/here. We are in a bear market.

 

[alarmguy]

Huge miss on Private Payrolls Report this morning.


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/02/adp-jobs-report-may-2022.html

Yep, recession and layoffs are near/here. We are in a bear market.

Hmmmm...
I suspect this will be a non event on Wall Street to maybe even good news.
Looking at a possible employment rates that is the highest its been in 53 years, so this set of numbers are saying we are almost back to a normal workforce with new job additions.
Throw in the BLS isnt out yet and even if that is soft, well, after all, the objective of the FED is to slow down the economy and it maybe working, that ever evasive fairy tail "soft landing" maybe by mistake they will get it right!
Not that the FED ever gets anything right.

I might be crazy but I just dont see the bear market for stocks trading at reasonable multiples. Economy is so hot that people can not buy the products they want to buy because they cant make the product fast enough.

 

[Dave Hess]

Watch video and hear what they say about earnings expectations and unrealistic expected earnings growth this year and next year. Analysts still pumping things up even though red flags everywhere and host says the quality of info from these analysts are pure garbage.

I agree 100% there’s lots of sunshine and roses from analysts & CEOs….. while things get worse by the day.

Lock in profits NOW and head for the exits !!!!




.

 

[Pablo]

Jacking rates to control supply inflation in a flighty economy doesn't work, but at least such reports will give the fed some pause. And maybe they will claim it's working!

Market should rally.

For a bit.

No I am not predicting more up and I'm not saying buy inverse funds. Dave Hess is the ONLY person I KNOW who works those funds perfectly. I don't have the intestinal fortitude to put over $500K a pop in inverse funds. This market is very mercurial.

 

[PimTac]

This market is very mercurial.

Spot on.

 

[jetman]

MSFT lower guidance, just the beginning. Perma bulls beware

 

[Dave Hess]

Yep, layoffs and companies preparing for bad news ahead.

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/06/02/tech-bust-takes-next-step-layoffs-hiring-freezes/

 

[Pablo]

Yep, layoffs and companies preparing for bad news ahead.

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/06/02/tech-bust-takes-next-step-layoffs-hiring-freezes/

Are you holding short funds?

 

[alarmguy]

Jacking rates to control supply inflation in a flighty economy doesn't work, but at least such reports will give the fed some pause. And maybe they will claim it's working!

Market should rally.

For a bit.

No I am not predicting more up and I'm not saying buy inverse funds. Dave Hess is the ONLY person I KNOW who works those funds perfectly. I don't have the intestinal fortitude to put over $500K a pop in inverse funds. This market is very mercurial.

I dont see it as jacking rates, how about restoring rates to what they should have been all along