Investing Strategies. What is your move?

[Pablo]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/l...prior-data-unexpectedly-revised-sharply-lower

The guy on TV eating ice cream cone says everything is OK and economy very strong.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...lls-by-more-than-forecast-in-august#xj4y7vzkg

The fed jacked rates way out of proportion relative to the actual strength of much anything.

Yeah I know, you want to just kill it all down. And as much as I want ice cream man to just go away. The economy and debt needs rates just a tad lower (not all the way down)

 

[alarmguy]

T Mobile will be laying off 5000 workers or about 7% of their workforce.


https://komonews.com/news/local/t-m...llular-telephone-germany-network-grid-service

Interesting, corporate and back office jobs.
Might be to soon but I wonder if this is due to AI taking on a larger roll

 

[alarmguy]

Very interesting how this plays out, UAW want 40% raise over a 4 year timeframe.

https://www.clickondetroit.com/news...detroit-auto-plant-ahead-of-potential-strike/

I would be shocked if they avoid a strike.
We shall see

 

[SC Maintenance]

The fed jacked rates way out of proportion relative to the actual strength of much anything.

Yeah I know, you want to just kill it all down. And as much as I want ice cream man to just go away. The economy and debt needs rates just a tad lower (not all the way down)

There between a rock and a hard place. On one hand your correct, there is no economic strength.

On the other hand, M2 hasn't shrunk at all, and neither really has core CPI or PCE. The government continues to spend like drunken sailors.

They need some good old fashion creative destruction to wipe out M2 - like the housing collapse in 08, or .com in 00, or the Asian money crisis, or the S&L crisis. We just need a good crisis - that will solve everything. Ha.

 

[Dave Hess]

I would be shocked if they avoid a strike.
We shall see

I am 100% in favor of a UAW strike for better pay and retirement, even if that means a 2-3 month complete shutdown and strike. I’m not kidding.




*** Full Disclosure ***
I’ve never worked 1 day of my life as a union worker.

 

[Passport1]

'Strike' was the working title for Ayn Rand's bleak prophesy, Atlas Shrugged. Maybe while the UAWs are idle they should take the time to read it.

Wikipedia

 

[ArrestMeRedZ]

... The government continues to spend like drunken sailors....

With respect, sir, I disagree. You unfairly cast shade on drunken sailors. At least drunken sailors spend their own money, and only spend what they have.

 

[SC Maintenance]

With respect, sir, I disagree. You unfairly cast shade on drunken sailors. At least drunken sailors spend their own money, and only spend what they have.

Yes, I agree. Living in Charleston I have met many drunken sailors, and all were quite cordial.

Forgive me. I will need to find a better euphemism. The filter won't let me use what I would normally refer to them as.

 

[dishdude]

Interesting, corporate and back office jobs.
Might be to soon but I wonder if this is due to AI taking on a larger roll

Probably a reorg from the Sprint merger.

 

[Pablo]

No longer are people so eager to quit is what the data says no matter the sprinkles and toppings

 

[Dave Hess]

Yes, I agree. Living in Charleston I have met many drunken sailors, and all were quite cordial.

Forgive me. I will need to find a better euphemism. The filter won't let me use what I would normally refer to them as.

I also don’t like that phrase.

Maybe say…… “young adults with their first credit card and impulsive, crazy spending habits.”

 

[Dave Hess]

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTS3000JOL

Manufacturing waaaay down in the USA.

 

[PimTac]

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTS3000JOL

Manufacturing waaaay down in the USA.

Graphs like that with big spikes are ominous.

 

[Pablo]

No longer are people so eager to quit is what the data says no matter the sprinkles and toppings

Graphs like that with big spikes are ominous.

Yep

 

[dishdude]

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTS3000JOL

Manufacturing waaaay down in the USA.

Graphs like that with big spikes are ominous.

Unless I'm reading that wrong, aren't those companies looking to hire for manufacturing jobs?

 

[ZeeOSix]

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTS3000JOL

Manufacturing waaaay down in the USA.

You sure? It's a graph of job openings, not a graph of manufacturing output. Or does it mean that more people are going back to work and filling jobs, and therefore the number of job openings is decreasing because manufacturing is ramping up to a more constant level? Can't always have an ever increasing number of job openings, as at some point the job market will become saturated with employees (ie, and the unemployment rate become low). If the economy levels off, I'd think the number of job openings would also level off, or even decrease as the available jobs get saturated.

 

[cptbarkey]

"After US consumers spent big this year on concerts and movies, Morgan Stanley economists predicted in a recent analyst note a “hangover effect on consumption” in the fourth quarter, ultimately dragging on economic growth."

To answer the thread topic, my current move is to continue with vacation plans in early nov, and to look for buying opportunities. Anyone planning on selling their Yanmar, Kubota, TYM, Bad Boy, Branson, Kioti, or related clone compact Tractor I am interested in buying one with a Loader, Box blade would be nice. Hydrostatic because I'm done shifting things. If you have a backhoe thats great too. Over 400 hours is fine, but 5000 is a little too much, unless its a Terramite.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/07/economy/revenge-travel-decline-spending-splurge/index.html

 

[Hillbilly Deluxe]

There are also cheaper options. You can get a Chinese made Stihl clone for half the price that is a really nice saw.
Everything changes.

Do you really think that is why Stihl has temporarily laid off people? I have inside info.... it's not.

Chinese-cloned Stihl chainsaws aren't on the shelf at a retailer near you. You have to order parts and jack around with putting it together. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. When you lose, you lose big. When you win, you lose if you think you're getting a 20-30 year saw.

My 026 Pro that I bought new in May of 2000 cranks on the 2nd or 3rd pull and runs like the day it was new. I have another 026 that is a few years older, bought it used and it runs even stronger.

I doubt you're going to hear a story like that about a fake Chinese Stihl in 20 years.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Do you really think that is why Stihl has temporarily laid off people? I have inside info.... it's not.

Chinese-cloned Stihl chainsaws aren't on the shelf at a retailer near you. You have to order parts and jack around with putting it together. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. When you lose, you lose big. When you win, you lose if you think you're getting a 20-30 year saw.

My 026 Pro that I bought new in May of 2000 cranks on the 2nd or 3rd pull and runs like the day it was new. I have another 026 that is a few years older, bought it used and it runs even stronger.

I doubt you're going to hear a story like that about a fake Chinese Stihl in 20 years.

I don't know about Stihl's layoffs, I cannot speak to that.
I haven't been in the tree cutting business in many years. I was surprised to hear about the cloned saws. I was further surprised to hear my friend speak of the quality. Art is a legend in the local tree climber community; he knows his stuff and his company is highly regarded.

 

[PimTac]

I don't know about Stihl's layoffs, I cannot speak to that.
I haven't been in the tree cutting business in many years. I was surprised to hear about the cloned saws. I was further surprised to hear my friend speak of the quality. Art is a legend in the local tree climber community; he knows his stuff and his company is highly regarded.

Stihl benefited from the lockdown as people worked on their yards and property. Now that party is over and Stihl will revert to normal times.

Who is Art? Never heard of him. I would not compare a Chinese clone to a real Stihl product. The fact that it’s a clone smacks of product espionage.