Investing Strategies. What is your move?

All eyes and ears are at Jackson Hole Wyoming. A beautiful place indeed.

What investors are hearing is giving them worries. Its not over yet?
 
If I have this right you seem to be saying interest rates are almost to their inflection points, which will mean that yields will drop creating a bond bull market? Except T10 is at 4.32% today, which is still 3% below its historical norm. So you think there going up a little more then going to have a long term bull market?

I actually looked at this a month ago - but as a hedge. My idea was buy a T10. If stocks go up I don't care that it looses some money.

If stocks go down and rates plummet, I make some money.

My issue was the spread. At 4.32% what's the possible floor? There never going back go 0.5% like in the depths of covid, IMHO.

So you have maybe a 2% yield drop, which is like a 20% market improvement in your bond pricing.

However if we revert to mean of 7% yields you loose 30%. The risk no longer seemed worth the reward - to me at least.

Just trying to understand your trade?
I don't think they go back to 0.5% either. They might fall in the next 12-24 months though. Bonds had a historically bad 2022, so if not late 23, perhaps in 2024 they could do well. Even if the Fed rates plateau soon instead of actually falling that will boost them. Its sentiment driven to some degree.

I would suggest watching Jeff Gundlach on recent YouTube videos. He can explain why far, far better that I ever could.
 
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