Interesting read: Toyota's 1:6:90 rule about lithium

[proveitwithdata]

This is their planned ev roadmap from publicly available sources. I do wonder for 30% markershare and evs are not the future these are some interesting targets and capital investments.

Toyota will have three stages of evolution and five technical variants from 2023 to 2028 with specs.

a) baseline (bZ4X): prismatic monopolar NCM622, 2022, 615km range on CLTC (all range figures will be for CLTC)/258mi EPA, 100% cost, 30min 10-80% SOC charging time.

b1) stage 1 performance variant: prismatic monopolar NCM (possibly 811), 2026, 1000 km CLTC/~420mi EPA, 80% cost, 20min 10-80%.

b2) stage 1 mainstream variant: new form factor bipolar LFP, 2026-2027, 750km CLTC/~310mi EPA, 60% cost, 30min 10-80%.

c) stage 2 performance variant: new form factor bipolar high-Ni chemistry, 2027-2028, 1100km range/~460mi EPA, 72% cost, 20min 10-80%.

d) stage 3 mainstream variant: blade style solid-state, 2028, 1200km range/~500mi EPA, unknown cost, 10min 10-80%.

e) stage 3 performance variant: blade style solid-state, 2028, 1500km range/~630mi EPA, unknown cost, 10min 10-80%.

 

[UncleDave]

This is their planned ev roadmap from publicly available sources. I do wonder for 30% markershare and evs are not the future these are some interesting targets and capital investments.

Toyota will have three stages of evolution and five technical variants from 2023 to 2028 with specs.

a) baseline (bZ4X): prismatic monopolar NCM622, 2022, 615km range on CLTC (all range figures will be for CLTC)/258mi EPA, 100% cost, 30min 10-80% SOC charging time.

b1) stage 1 performance variant: prismatic monopolar NCM (possibly 811), 2026, 1000 km CLTC/~420mi EPA, 80% cost, 20min 10-80%.

b2) stage 1 mainstream variant: new form factor bipolar LFP, 2026-2027, 750km CLTC/~310mi EPA, 60% cost, 30min 10-80%.

c) stage 2 performance variant: new form factor bipolar high-Ni chemistry, 2027-2028, 1100km range/~460mi EPA, 72% cost, 20min 10-80%.

d) stage 3 mainstream variant: blade style solid-state, 2028, 1200km range/~500mi EPA, unknown cost, 10min 10-80%.

e) stage 3 performance variant: blade style solid-state, 2028, 1500km range/~630mi EPA, unknown cost, 10min 10-80%.

Problem is Toyota has a history of making battery claims that dont come true, and it seems they cant decide what they are in on, or at least they cant decide what to message.

It's hybrids right?

Then why the roadmaps on full Ev's?

A few roadmaps and posts ago it was the " 750 mile battery".

Major breakthroughs from Toyota have been around the corner seemingly forever.

https://thedriven.io/2023/07/05/sol...ng-big-on-ev-breakthrough-but-not-delivering/

 

[demarpaint]

Problem is Toyota has a history of making battery claims that dont come true, and it seems they cant decide what they are in on, or at least they cant decide what to message.

It's hybrids right?

Then why the roadmaps on full Ev's?

A few roadmaps and posts ago it was the " 750 mile battery".

Major breakthroughs from Toyota have been around the corner seemingly forever.



View attachment 205564

https://thedriven.io/2023/07/05/sol...ng-big-on-ev-breakthrough-but-not-delivering/

Good points, and I think they'll sort it out. At the moment it appears their stockholders think so too.

 

[KrisZ]

How much did Toyota invest in their failing Hydrogen program? Oh they are such geniuses for not investing in EVs, right?
Could it be they didn’t want to bet on two maimed horses at the same time?

 

[alarmguy]

How much did Toyota invest in their failing Hydrogen program? Oh they are such geniuses for not investing in EVs, right?
Could it be they didn’t want to bet on two maimed horses at the same time?

You do know that every corporation in the world explores and spends money on products that may or may not come to market.
The ones that spend money on development and research are the successful companies in the world.
One thing for sure, the world‘s largest manufacturer of automobiles which is Toyota does something right.
They will be able to pick and choose as well as compete with any new technology vehicle that comes out into the marketplace

 

[alarmguy]

Good points, and I think they'll sort it out. At the moment it appears their stockholders think so too.

The good news is Toyota is such a large company, world leader in all things automobiles that they can pick and choose, or put on the shelf, any technology and be ready for any competition whatever that may be.
I think we can agree no companies stay at the top with blinders on refusing to tryout test develop and build prototypes of other technologies.

I still can’t get over the trash and they took just months ago in this very forum and in the media for not jumping on the EV bandwagon and going all in. Now it looks like they were the smartest kid on the block.

BYD is taking the same approach, developing gasoline and hybrid automobiles, as well as the electric.

 

[PandaBear]

Toyota is correct in their way of running a reliable business that size. Imagine if Tesla screw up people would forgive them, but if Toyota screw up they are screwing people who buy a boring reliable appliance instead of a fancy new toy.

I do think they should gradually go from hybrid to plug in to EV, and if the reliability can't keep up, they have something to fall back on. The last thing you want is buying a Prius and get stuck with a Nissan Leaf equivalent.

Lexus people can take more risk than someone who cannot risk a vehicle problem and lose his job. Those guys want a Corolla to be dependable instead of cool and fun.

 

[KrisZ]

You do know that every corporation in the world explores and spends money on products that may or may not come to market.
The ones that spend money on development and research are the successful companies in the world.
One thing for sure, the world‘s largest manufacturer of automobiles which is Toyota does something right.
They will be able to pick and choose as well as compete with any new technology vehicle that comes out into the marketplace

I do know that.

However, everyone is praising Toyota for not jumping on the EV bandwagon now that the sales of EVs are going down, when Toyota did the same with the Hydrogen.
Somehow nobody has made the same argument as you that other manufacturers are simply "exploring" EVs at this point in the other EV sales thread.

I'm simply pointing out that Toyota didn't sit on the sidelines while everyone was wasting money on developing EVs, because they wasted their money on the hydrogen program, which turned out to be a dud.

 

[Rmay635703]

Correct, nor are we predicted to run out of rare earths.

We are running out because certain rare earths are domestically available in too small of amounts to extract enough for industrial purposes. PPM

That’s why what is in effect a near total foreign export ban on dysprosium and other rare earths alongside the potential ban on the export of products containing rare earths will drive all sorts of craziness as our entire military and aerospace fields depend on it.

And yeah they say licensing but same as ban.

Prices have already jumped.

https://cleantechnica.com/2025/04/0...s-of-minerals-critical-for-defense-cleantech/

Examples of a few things that are affected by this development:

• electric motors (including the regulator on alternators)
• solar panels
• ammunition
• cutters
• drill bits
• punches
• circuitry in semiconductor chips
• CNC machine tools
• alloys that go into everything from jet engines to deep-drilling rigs
• wind turbines
• night-vision goggles
• sonar systems
• magnetostrictive actuators
• display screens (TVs)
• touchscreens
• fiber optics
• laser diodes
• 5G base stations
• jet engine coatings
• high-frequency radar systems
• precision lasers
• laser target designators
• LASIK
• engraving
• spectroscopy
• guided munitions
• infrared imaging
• stealth aircraft
• More close to home reasons this will be irritating because many inane devices are affected due to chip issues
• Do you like cars with auto generators and an external pile style regulator? (Alternators use materials we don’t have domestically with a focus on the regulator section being impossible to produce sans specific materials )
  Do you like mechanical timing? Modern OBDII2 and o2 sensors can’t be manufactured without specific elements
  
  Do you like not having a 3 way cat?
  Only 70’s era 2 way cats can be made domestically without certain non-available elements and recycling CATs is lossy as the amount left in a 150,000 mile car to recover is sometimes half.
  
  Do you like crt TVs ? (Modern LCDs, processors/junction boards and silicon chips in general require elements we don’t make in significant quantities but we do have the rare earths to make CRTs phosphors )
  
  Do you like cell phones? Many parts, especially 3/4/5g modems and base stations require rare earths to transmit.
  
  Do you like asceptic packaging? Many polymers, hydrocarbons (including fuel and oil) and medical chemicals are manufactured with the help of rare earth catalyst.

And at the moment there is no mine waiting in the wings, even the very expensive process of extraction from domestic coal filings will not provide measurable numbers of 3 critical elements.

 

[PandaBear]

We are running out because certain rare earths are domestically available in too small of amounts to extract enough for industrial purposes. PPM

That’s why what is in effect a near total foreign export ban on dysprosium and other rare earths alongside the potential ban on the export of products containing rare earths will drive all sorts of craziness as our entire military and aerospace fields depend on it.

And yeah they say licensing but same as ban.

Prices have already jumped.

https://cleantechnica.com/2025/04/0...s-of-minerals-critical-for-defense-cleantech/

Examples of a few things that are affected by this development:

• electric motors (including the regulator on alternators)
• solar panels
• ammunition
• cutters
• drill bits
• punches
• circuitry in semiconductor chips
• CNC machine tools
• alloys that go into everything from jet engines to deep-drilling rigs
• wind turbines
• night-vision goggles
• sonar systems
• magnetostrictive actuators
• display screens (TVs)
• touchscreens
• fiber optics
• laser diodes
• 5G base stations
• jet engine coatings
• high-frequency radar systems
• precision lasers
• laser target designators
• LASIK
• engraving
• spectroscopy
• guided munitions
• infrared imaging
• stealth aircraft
• More close to home reasons this will be irritating because many inane devices are affected due to chip issues
• Do you like cars with auto generators and an external pile style regulator? (Alternators use materials we don’t have domestically with a focus on the regulator section being impossible to produce sans specific materials )
  Do you like mechanical timing? Modern OBDII2 and o2 sensors can’t be manufactured without specific elements
  
  Do you like not having a 3 way cat?
  Only 70’s era 2 way cats can be made domestically without certain non-available elements and recycling CATs is lossy as the amount left in a 150,000 mile car to recover is sometimes half.
  
  Do you like crt TVs ? (Modern LCDs, processors/junction boards and silicon chips in general require elements we don’t make in significant quantities but we do have the rare earths to make CRTs phosphors )
  
  Do you like cell phones? Many parts, especially 3/4/5g modems and base stations require rare earths to transmit.
  
  Do you like asceptic packaging? Many polymers, hydrocarbons (including fuel and oil) and medical chemicals are manufactured with the help of rare earth catalyst.

And at the moment there is no mine waiting in the wings, even the very expensive process of extraction from domestic coal filings will not provide measurable numbers of 3 critical elements.

Rare earth is not rare, they are only rare if you don't want to pollute your land to extract them.

If the economy hit is too big you can bet politics will steer to local extraction, at the cost of pollution (like China does).

 

[Rmay635703]

Rare earth is not rare, they are only rare if you don't want to pollute your land to extract them.

If the economy hit is too big you can bet politics will steer to local extraction, at the cost of pollution (like China does).

dysprosium Cannot be extracted for commercial applications in the US by known methods.

Certain rare earths are extremely regional and for all practical purposes don’t exist in other places to any meaningful extent.

Extraordinarily expensive methods like Our coal ash sources thus far don’t even contain it in any adequate or meaningful volume