Inflation is here

[Wolf359]

Transitory??? When is the last time your rent was reduced? I'm sure the auto companies will roll back prices, too.

Well what normally happens is that the rent doesn't go down, but the tenants find a cheaper place and move out and you can't find any one else to pay the old rent so the rent ends up going down. Landlords never seem to voluntarily reduce it.

Same thing with the auto companies, they don't really reduce list prices, but they include more options, have better lease deals or have big rebates. The net price you pay may change but the MSRP doesn't really.

Some of the above items are a direct result of COVID (used car prices) while others (guns) are a direct result of emotions. And others still are driven by supply and demand (real estate). There is not "one particular guy" accounting for (some of) your list.

I would say guns are just the result of who is currently in office. Democrats have always been the best gun salesmen and Republicans have been bad gun salesmen, I think a few gun companies even went out of business in the last administration.

Nah, you just need to go ask your boss for a 30% pay raise. And FYI, what this inflation really does is cut your income and savings by something like 20% across the board, plus or minus.

While people like to throw out numbers, I believe official government numbers are saying an average of 5.4%. Of course some sectors are higher and others lower, it's an average number.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

On the flip side, the S&P 500 is still on a tear, up 21.57% year to date. Since 2019, I calculate that it's up about 90%. Maybe that's where a lot of the money is coming from also.

https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/performance-and-risk/315911750

 

[CharlesInCharge]

Well what normally happens is that the rent doesn't go down, but the tenants find a cheaper place and move out and you can't find any one else to pay the old rent so the rent ends up going down. Landlords never seem to voluntarily reduce it.

Same thing with the auto companies, they don't really reduce list prices, but they include more options, have better lease deals or have big rebates. The net price you pay may change but the MSRP doesn't really.


I would say guns are just the result of who is currently in office. Democrats have always been the best gun salesmen and Republicans have been bad gun salesmen, I think a few gun companies even went out of business in the last administration.



While people like to throw out numbers, I believe official government numbers are saying an average of 5.4%. Of course some sectors are higher and others lower, it's an average number.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

On the flip side, the S&P 500 is still on a tear, up 21.57% year to date. Since 2019, I calculate that it's up about 90%. Maybe that's where a lot of the money is coming from also.

https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/performance-and-risk/315911750

That fake 5% quoted does not include the things people actually buy and care about, such as food, energy, and about a dozen other important items... all of which are up 10-50% this year. Source? My eyeballs. I live in the real world and work and spend real money on stuff. I don't live in some ivory tower in DC making 7 figure salary to move paper around on a desk and give fake news interviews.

 

[CKN]

Well what normally happens is that the rent doesn't go down, but the tenants find a cheaper place and move out and you can't find any one else to pay the old rent so the rent ends up going down. Landlords never seem to voluntarily reduce it.

Same thing with the auto companies, they don't really reduce list prices, but they include more options, have better lease deals or have big rebates. The net price you pay may change but the MSRP doesn't really.


I would say guns are just the result of who is currently in office. Democrats have always been the best gun salesmen and Republicans have been bad gun salesmen, I think a few gun companies even went out of business in the last administration.



While people like to throw out numbers, I believe official government numbers are saying an average of 5.4%. Of course some sectors are higher and others lower, it's an average number.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

On the flip side, the S&P 500 is still on a tear, up 21.57% year to date. Since 2019, I calculate that it's up about 90%. Maybe that's where a lot of the money is coming from also.

https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/performance-and-risk/315911750

Thread closing ahead......

 

[Wolf359]

That fake 5% quoted does not include the things people actually buy and care about, such as food, energy, and about a dozen other important items... all of which are up 10-50% this year. Source? My eyeballs. I live in the real world and work and spend real money on stuff. I don't live in some ivory tower in DC making 7 figure salary to move paper around on a desk and give fake news interviews.

Well it's never going to be completely accurate and will never fit each persons personal outlays. There's a few things in food that have stayed the same though, the rotisserie chicken at Costco is still $5 along with their $1.50 hot dog, been like that for years. And while gas is up, I haven't been driving as much and as a percentage of monthly outlays probably about the same or maybe a little higher, don't really pay that much attention. And for the record, I don't think anyone actually makes 7 figures in a government position, even the President only makes 400k a year. I think only one person makes more and he's the director of the NIAID and he's been there for 35+ years.

 

[Wolf359]

Thread closing ahead......

Why do you say that? What I say is factual and you can feel free to fact check it.

Just trying to put some things in perspective. From some replies, you'd think inflation was 50-100% and we're all soon going to be penniless. Mortgage interest are still at historic lows and the stock market is at historic highs. The sky isn't falling and it's still blue and birds fly through it.

 

[dareo]

If you want to know the true rate of inflation just take the stock market gain and cut a chunk off.

Not everyone has raised prices yet, but they can, will and should do so. Consumers are not rejecting the price hikes. $5 chickens at Costco is a loss leader tradition item.

Inflation is a regressive tax and a stimulus for leveraged asset owners. Risk is rewarded and savings accounts are losing value. Those with; gain. Those without, will have a harder time accumulating wealth.

Buckle up.

 

[dlundblad]

And the national average was $3.83 in Aug 2008. It’s far cheaper than it used to be. Things are cyclical, as they’ve always been. In addition, $1.95 is incorrect. The national average was $2.27 this time last year (during a period when most the world was shut down in a pandemic and gasoline demand was in a free fall).



https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=m

I remember just 2-3 months ago when people said lumber prices “would never come down again!! This is horrible!!”

An 8’ 2x4 at Menards peaked at $7.99 and is now down to $3.22. I looked up an old receipt and I paid $3.12 at Menards for the same SKU in early 2020. BFD.

The average price of gas in 2019 was $2.50 or so. It’s amazing was energy independence can do.

 

[wwillson]

The common misconception is that inflation causes prices to rise. The actual reason is that as the money supply increases dramatically, the value of money inversely decreases so it takes more money to buy the product today than it did yesterday. It is really a very basic concept but economics revolves around human behavior and is an anathema to most people. For a chilling preview of where hyperinflation leads,

Get a copy of this book----->>View attachment 69351

You hit it on the head, I still remember the concept from my Econ 204 Money and Banking class. It's about money supply, but you'll almost never here anyone say that, instead they say prices increase.

 

[javacontour]

botttom line what was the price of fuel this time last year

You know you have to compare with this time in 2019 for a more accurate comparison.

Or look at this time each year for the last 10 years.

Cherry picking one year to make a point is disingenuous at best.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

The average price of gas in 2019 was $2.50 or so. It’s amazing was energy independence can do.

The price of gas has nothing to do with energy independence. I wish people would stop falling for this. Oil and its distillates are priced off global supply and demand. There's no correlation between gas prices and "energy independence".

 

[jhs914]

Well, it's obvious why this is all happening, so for those who caused it pat yourselves on the back. And that's all I'll say on the topic b/c our entire situation infuriates me.

Exactly. Reading between the lines I know who you are talking about that should give themselves the back pat.

 

[FowVay]

Not going political because we can see what is happening to our nation. What I will mention is the little bottle of 2-cycle oil at Kroger that I use for my indicator of all things financial.

The tiny bottle of Mototech 2-cycle oil that Kroger sells to people who don't care about ratings or quality was $2.69 for what seemed like years. Then there was a bump in price and it rocketed up to $2.99 about six months ago. On my last grocery excursion the price of that tiny bottle of 2-cycle oil was up to $3.99. This is a real price increase and just in time for the leaf blowing season.

Watch your pennies and your dollars will watch themselves. A penny saved is a penny earned. Our economy can't recover when people are struggling just to eat. We have lived falsely on credit for far too long and now the piper is handing out invoices.

 

[PWMDMD]

The price of gas has nothing to do with energy independence. I wish people would stop falling for this. Oil and its distillates are priced off global supply and demand. There's no correlation between gas prices and "energy independence".

But it fits their narrative so they'll never give up on the idea...

 

[PWMDMD]

You hit it on the head, I still remember the concept from my Econ 204 Money and Banking class. It's about money supply, but you'll almost never here anyone say that, instead they say prices increase.

...and just so no one misses it the money supply in this country expanded $4T in 2020 and only $1T in 2021 - 80% of the inflation you see today is a result of decisions made in 2020.

 

[SeaJay]

Inflation is officially here now. Costco 40 pack of bottled half liter water went from $2.99, where it had been for a loooong time to now at $3.19.

The floodgates have opened.

 

[demarpaint]

I knew this was coming last November.

 

[alarmguy]

My wife works with international suppliers, everything is going up and what isnt going up is out of stock.

Im looking forward to some inflation and the interest rate increases to tame it.
I dont carry debt and wouldnt mind the cash I have on hand getting 6% interest which will never happen anymore but can hope.

Inflaiton also means the economy is humming a long.
With that said, the FED knows this is just a matter of supply catching up with demand due to production shut downs and covid.
As supply catches up prices will stabilize and come down.

NOW WITH THAT SAID ... *L*
I dont think the Fed is taking into account all the wage increases and what seems like insane wages for non skilled labor.
Wallgreens, Walmart, Target, Banks ect ect starting salaries if $15 ro $20 an hour. A lot of money floating around and will be a lot of demand which means inflation.
Thing is, its supply and demand which I believe in, so it is what it is, if people are willing to pay or able to pay, the price is the price.
I personally dont think some 5 years down the road its going to be a pretty picture, sooo much money being printed by governments, its all worthless.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

My wife works with international suppliers, everything is going up and what isnt going up is out of stock.

Exactly. Factories haven't been able to ramp up to pre-pandemic levels of productivity so they're increasing prices. Another little tidbit is the number of ship sitting off Los Angeles.

https://www.businessinsider.com/shi...in-record-ships-stuck-california-ports-2021-8

 

[alarmguy]

Exactly. Factories haven't been able to ramp up to pre-pandemic levels of productivity so they're increasing prices. Another little tidbit is the number of ship sitting off Los Angeles.

https://www.businessinsider.com/shi...in-record-ships-stuck-california-ports-2021-8

Oh my yes, I mean't to mention shipping, prices are off the wall. Shipping prices for some (containers) are up as much as 300% to 400%.

 

[krismoriah72]

If anyone remembers Andy Rooney and his rants on Coffee Cans, Paper Towels, etc.. there will be trickery to come soon with 'Inflation'. Boxes and bags and cans will be smaller and the prices will seem lower. A case of beer will probably be 16 cans.


Nobody in my normal day of shopping should ever complain of Inflation either. I see lottery tickets being bought, bottled water at $3 a bottle, Coffee Drinks at $4 per can, Energy Drinks at $4 per can. Cigarettes at $9/pack...etc. I see people paying $10-20 to get their car washed on rainy days. Candy bars are $2 i think. Chick-Fil-A seems to always be packed. TV streaming services are expensive.. Everybody gets new cell phones every couple of years..

But if the cost of milk and bread go up a quarter...everybody goes nuts.


I think a playstation 5 is $1000. And a Chevy 1/2 ton is $35,000. Nobody complains.


If i live long enough i will likely be below poverty.. unless i stop consuming as much.