Illinois 15 dollar/hr incremental raise

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Originally Posted by Danno
All I have to see is all the stores, post increase to minimum wage, that installed self checkouts and replaced minimum wage jobs with automation .. Shoppers, Independent Grocer, Wal Mart, Lowes, Home Depot, etc.
Don't need Torstar or Huff and Puff Post to tell me what I see every day.

The article above is a Berkely study... Just so you know.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-st...t-impact-jobs-in-6-us-cities-study-shows
 
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Originally Posted by StevieC
Yes I know they are "Left" biased like Huff-Po, but the bank did the study and that is what matters. Also can't argue with Goverment statistics... So...

As for automation... This is inevitable across all sectors but despite this being implemented the unemployment rate still fell to the lowest level in 18 years after the hike.
21.gif



Minimum wage earners spend the most back into the economy so it really does benefit everyone if they are paid more.


Do they spend the most or do they spend the most (percentage-wise) of their income? It goes to reason that they would obviously spend more of what they earn because they aren't squirrelling money away into RSP's and the like, but I have a hard time imagining somebody who makes 20K a year putting more back into the economy than I do considering what i pay for property taxes, fuel, vehicles, services, food...etc. My dad's paying taxes on three properties, hydro on three properties and my mom's shopping could likely support an entire family on assistance
lol.gif


Regarding Ontario, the unemployment rate had been steadily decreasing up to the point of the wage increase. It bottomed out at 5.5% in August of 2017, up to 5.8% in October, back to 5.5% in November and then stayed around the 5.5% mark before trending back up in April to 5.6%, ending up at 5.9% in June of 2018:
[Linked Image]


Immediately after the increase, employment decreased with the biggest groups affected being part-time, youth and seniors:
https://www.ontario.ca/page/labour-market-report-january-2018
Originally Posted by Ontario

There was a loss in part-time jobs (59,300) in January. Full-time jobs increased by 8,500.

Youth employment (those aged 15 to 24) declined by 25,800 jobs in January, following a decline of 4,600 jobs in December.

People ages 25 to 54 saw an increase in employment of 5,600 in January compared to December. Those aged 55 and older lost 30,600 jobs.


A small number of those were regained in February:
Originally Posted by Ontario

There was a gain in part-time jobs (18,100) in February. Full-time jobs declined by 2,500.

Youth employment (those aged 15 to 24) was unchanged in February, following a decline of 25,800 jobs in January.

People ages 25 to 54 saw an increase in employment of 25,900 in February compared to January. Those aged 55 and older lost 10,600 jobs.


Part-time declined in March, though youth appeared to recover. Seniors continued to lose jobs:
Originally Posted by Ontario

There was a gain in full-time jobs (16,300) in March. Part-time jobs declined by 5,700.

Youth employment (those aged 15 to 24) increased by 29,900 in March, after remaining unchanged in February.

People aged 25 to 54 decreased in employment by 11,900 in March compared to February. Those aged 55 and older lost 7,400 jobs.


Ultimately this is where we ended up in December:
[Linked Image]


We seem to have plateaued.

Also, I think this graphic is valuable:
[Linked Image]


As it shows those with lower levels of education were affected negatively.

This graphic shows the types of work:
[Linked Image]


With the sales/service jobs being discussed amongst the most affected by the increase. By far, those that made off the best: Business, Finance and Admin, those that are not making anywhere remotely near minimum wage, appear to have benefited the most.
 
Yeah but December - March isn't really a good time period to look at because of seasonal hires/lay-offs. If you look at the data quoted above it says 6 months after the hike unemployment rate was the lowest it had been in 18 years.
 
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Originally Posted by StevieC
It doesn't matter that it has been on the decline anyway because this didn't cause an increase in the rate of job loss it continued to follow the trend that job less was on the decline anyway. There would have been an uptick and there wasn't like the "Sky is falling" banks had said previously.


Or it could be looked at as stopping the decline. Obviously there is a floor, but this may have moved it. And just looking at the number doesn't delve into the impacts to certain job types that were most affected, which I attempted to break-out in the above post. If you are in retail sales and lose your job to a Kiosk, that $15.00 minimum wage means SFA. On the other hand, if you are in the trades, which are on the rise, mostly thanks to OPG and Bruce Power, then you aren't making anywhere remotely near minimum wage, so it doesn't matter to you either.
 
Originally Posted by OVERKILL
Originally Posted by StevieC
It doesn't matter that it has been on the decline anyway because this didn't cause an increase in the rate of job loss it continued to follow the trend that job less was on the decline anyway. There would have been an uptick and there wasn't like the "Sky is falling" banks had said previously.


Or it could be looked at as stopping the decline. Obviously there is a floor, but this may have moved it. And just looking at the number doesn't delve into the impacts to certain job types that were most affected, which I attempted to break-out in the above post. If you are in retail sales and lose your job to a Kiosk, that $15.00 minimum wage means SFA. On the other hand, if you are in the trades, which are on the rise, mostly thanks to OPG and Bruce Power, then you aren't making anywhere remotely near minimum wage, so it doesn't matter to you either.


Sorry I went back and edited it because the charts didn't load initially and then I saw them and then I changed what I said. My computer or internet or something goofed. Maybe because I haven't rebooted in 11 days.
lol.gif
 
Originally Posted by StevieC
Yeah but December - March isn't really a good time period to look at because of seasonal hires/lay-offs. If you look at the data quoted above it says 6 months after the hike unemployment rate was the lowest it had been in 18 years.


Sure, but it was already on the way there given the trend. It bottomed out at 5.4%, which is insanely close the 5.5% seen numerous times in in 2017. We have been in recovery mode since the recession, that's why the rate has been steadily declining. It seems to have plateaued now and that may be due to the wage increase. I'm more concerned in the shifts in the job market than I am about the overall number. Thousands of seniors that can't potentially can't afford to heat their homes having lost their Walmart Greeter or Shoppers cashier job being displaced by growth in Finance or Trades, while it makes the numbers look good, it doesn't help those people any.
 
Originally Posted by StevieC
Check out what Berkely has to say it was a 4 year period studied 2012 to 2016:

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-st...t-impact-jobs-in-6-us-cities-study-shows


I'll be interested to see their follow-up study.

They chose food service which, is something that:
A) Can't be easily automated
B) Is more likely to experience product price adjustments to retain adequate staff (due to A) than experience layoffs.

Contrast to the examples of Shoppers, Canadian Tire, Walmart, Home Depot...etc where we've actually witnessed automation replace warm bodies, I think you'd find that study might show different results.

As noted in the trend with Ontario, jobs appeared to decline in some sectors, but were more than made up for in others. Unfortunately, the decline appears to be in ones where making minimum wage is likely, whilst the increases were not.
 
Originally Posted by OVERKILL
Originally Posted by StevieC
Yeah but December - March isn't really a good time period to look at because of seasonal hires/lay-offs. If you look at the data quoted above it says 6 months after the hike unemployment rate was the lowest it had been in 18 years.


Sure, but it was already on the way there given the trend. It bottomed out at 5.4%, which is insanely close the 5.5% seen numerous times in in 2017. We have been in recovery mode since the recession, that's why the rate has been steadily declining. It seems to have plateaued now and that may be due to the wage increase. I'm more concerned in the shifts in the job market than I am about the overall number. Thousands of seniors that can't potentially can't afford to heat their homes having lost their Walmart Greeter or Shoppers cashier job being displaced by growth in Finance or Trades, while it makes the numbers look good, it doesn't help those people any.

Right but there would have been an up-tick in unemployment should this have hurt the economy that would buck the trend. What am I missing here?

Again with the automation... This would have happened anyway. McDonalds was testing Kiosks in the late 1990's when the technology was primitive then and minimum wage was $7

Also did you look at the 4 year Berkeley study of major cities in the US where it was raised?
 
Last edited:
Originally Posted by StevieC
Originally Posted by OVERKILL
Originally Posted by StevieC
Yeah but December - March isn't really a good time period to look at because of seasonal hires/lay-offs. If you look at the data quoted above it says 6 months after the hike unemployment rate was the lowest it had been in 18 years.


Sure, but it was already on the way there given the trend. It bottomed out at 5.4%, which is insanely close the 5.5% seen numerous times in in 2017. We have been in recovery mode since the recession, that's why the rate has been steadily declining. It seems to have plateaued now and that may be due to the wage increase. I'm more concerned in the shifts in the job market than I am about the overall number. Thousands of seniors that can't potentially can't afford to heat their homes having lost their Walmart Greeter or Shoppers cashier job being displaced by growth in Finance or Trades, while it makes the numbers look good, it doesn't help those people any.

Right but there would have been an up-tick in unemployment should this have hurt the economy that would buck the trend. What am I missing here?

Also did you look at the 4 year Berkeley study of major cities in the US where it was raised?


Yes, I just read that study. They focused on the food service industry, which I noted in my above reply.

And no, look at the graphics, we had increases in Admin, Finance, Trades...etc. These were more than what was offset via the decline in sales, service....etc. The overall rate doesn't discriminate based on age, education, pay level...etc. While it appears to have plateaued at the 5.x% mark, the concern should be around the variations taking place inside those silos that control that rate. The sideways graphic showing the 2018 trends for who benefited and who didn't I think does a good job of showing this.
 
Originally Posted by StevieC


Again with the automation... This would have happened anyway. McDonalds was testing Kiosks in the late 1990's when the technology was primitive then and minimum wage was $7


Perhaps eventually, but there has been concern expressed over how people would respond to it. This was torpedoed by the wage increase, which seemed to result in rather rapid deployment of automated kiosks and skeleton crews to "supervise".

Where do you think Grandma Betty is going to work if she can't work the cash at Shoppers or the Greeter role at Walmart? Even if her loss of a job is more than displaced by two tradies at OPG, if she can't do anything, she's screwed. Old folks freezing to death because they keep their house/apartment at barely above icebox level due to their hydro rates and now being unable to hold a part time job can't just be shovelled under the rug because the unemployment rate didn't "skyrocket". There's a level of nuance here that needs to be analyzed. Energy poverty is real, old folks running out of money is real, they wouldn't be working cashier jobs and greet roles if they didn't need to.

Perhaps the part about the above that bothers me the most is that you have Heroin Heather and Methy Mike living with their 3x JD's in community housing, collecting welfare and rolling around in a Suburban while the rest of us are working and you've got old people eating bloody dog food in an apartment that's basically at fridge temperature and can't even afford to take a cab. They end up in emerge with a broken hip because they tried to walk to the grocery store and Methy Mike almost ran over them with his taxpayer-funded bro-dozer because he's half-lit
smirk.gif
 
You mean the "study" that has literally zero data and information other than a couple lines of opinion in that article?

You will never convince me that large companies forced to pay higher wages do not immediately start to find ways to cut labor costs... like Overkill said, more automation and kiosks, and as those minimum wage jobs are eliminated by the automation, additional clerical and financial jobs must be created. It's happening even in my industry- the hourly head count budget is being forcefully reduced by 15-20%, while the company is adding additional financial controllers and analysts.

What Overkill is saying is that when the company is hiring people above the minimum wage, it is actually able to save money in the long run because they can hire at whatever those positions will support. While minimum wage workers increase from $7.25/hr to $15/hr, this is an increase per head of 48%. If the going rate for a higher position is $18-20/hr, they can hire those spots all day with 0% increase and still fill positions.

The people clamoring for minimum wage increases of nearly 50% don't realize that because they refuse to gain experience and skills to move upmarket, a good portion is actually advocating for the elimination of the position they currently hold. It's simple economics. If you want to earn more money, figure out how to move yourself up-market into a higher wage instead of forcing the company's hand. Believe me, many companies will find any way possible to keep the lowest-skilled positions at the lowest cost possible.
 
So they're cutting the bottom rung off the job ladder? So much for getting the next generation of teenagers into the labor force.
 
Originally Posted by OVERKILL
Originally Posted by StevieC


Again with the automation... This would have happened anyway. McDonalds was testing Kiosks in the late 1990's when the technology was primitive then and minimum wage was $7


Perhaps eventually, but there has been concern expressed over how people would respond to it. This was torpedoed by the wage increase, which seemed to result in rather rapid deployment of automated kiosks and skeleton crews to "supervise".

Where do you think Grandma Betty is going to work if she can't work the cash at Shoppers or the Greeter role at Walmart? Even if her loss of a job is more than displaced by two tradies at OPG, if she can't do anything, she's screwed. Old folks freezing to death because they keep their house/apartment at barely above icebox level due to their hydro rates and now being unable to hold a part time job can't just be shovelled under the rug because the unemployment rate didn't "skyrocket". There's a level of nuance here that needs to be analyzed. Energy poverty is real, old folks running out of money is real, they wouldn't be working cashier jobs and greet roles if they didn't need to.

Perhaps the part about the above that bothers me the most is that you have Heroin Heather and Methy Mike living with their 3x JD's in community housing, collecting welfare and rolling around in a Suburban while the rest of us are working and you've got old people eating bloody dog food in an apartment that's basically at fridge temperature and can't even afford to take a cab. They end up in emerge with a broken hip because they tried to walk to the grocery store and Methy Mike almost ran over them with his taxpayer-funded bro-dozer because he's half-lit
smirk.gif


You heard too that Canadian Tire pulled out all their self-serve Kiosk's?
 
Last edited:
Originally Posted by SubieRubyRoo
You mean the "study" that has literally zero data and information other than a couple lines of opinion in that article?

You will never convince me that large companies forced to pay higher wages do not immediately start to find ways to cut labor costs... like Overkill said, more automation and kiosks, and as those minimum wage jobs are eliminated by the automation, additional clerical and financial jobs must be created. It's happening even in my industry- the hourly head count budget is being forcefully reduced by 15-20%, while the company is adding additional financial controllers and analysts.

What Overkill is saying is that when the company is hiring people above the minimum wage, it is actually able to save money in the long run because they can hire at whatever those positions will support. While minimum wage workers increase from $7.25/hr to $15/hr, this is an increase per head of 48%. If the going rate for a higher position is $18-20/hr, they can hire those spots all day with 0% increase and still fill positions.

The people clamoring for minimum wage increases of nearly 50% don't realize that because they refuse to gain experience and skills to move upmarket, a good portion is actually advocating for the elimination of the position they currently hold. It's simple economics. If you want to earn more money, figure out how to move yourself up-market into a higher wage instead of forcing the company's hand. Believe me, many companies will find any way possible to keep the lowest-skilled positions at the lowest cost possible.


I said OK to what he posted. I understand what he is saying.

As for skills increasing leading to increased pay? Yeah not a chance. Wages have been flat for 50 years when compared to cost of living which has lead to a sharp rise in consumer debt and poverty for the "Middle Class" or as it should be called "Working Poor".
 
Last edited:
Originally Posted by StevieC
Originally Posted by OVERKILL
Originally Posted by StevieC


Again with the automation... This would have happened anyway. McDonalds was testing Kiosks in the late 1990's when the technology was primitive then and minimum wage was $7


Perhaps eventually, but there has been concern expressed over how people would respond to it. This was torpedoed by the wage increase, which seemed to result in rather rapid deployment of automated kiosks and skeleton crews to "supervise".

Where do you think Grandma Betty is going to work if she can't work the cash at Shoppers or the Greeter role at Walmart? Even if her loss of a job is more than displaced by two tradies at OPG, if she can't do anything, she's screwed. Old folks freezing to death because they keep their house/apartment at barely above icebox level due to their hydro rates and now being unable to hold a part time job can't just be shovelled under the rug because the unemployment rate didn't "skyrocket". There's a level of nuance here that needs to be analyzed. Energy poverty is real, old folks running out of money is real, they wouldn't be working cashier jobs and greet roles if they didn't need to.

Perhaps the part about the above that bothers me the most is that you have Heroin Heather and Methy Mike living with their 3x JD's in community housing, collecting welfare and rolling around in a Suburban while the rest of us are working and you've got old people eating bloody dog food in an apartment that's basically at fridge temperature and can't even afford to take a cab. They end up in emerge with a broken hip because they tried to walk to the grocery store and Methy Mike almost ran over them with his taxpayer-funded bro-dozer because he's half-lit
smirk.gif


You heard too that Canadian Tire pulled out all their self-serve Kiosk's?


Ours never had them
21.gif
They just reduced the number of registers they had open. It seems to be 2 or 3 now.
 
It's more complicated than just raising the minimum wage.

Yes costs have skyrocketed, and wages have remained flat. Raising the minimum wage won't improve anything unfortunately. Corporations won't agree to just suddenly turn less profit, they will build the increase into their costs, essentially making the "real" cost stay the same.
 
Originally Posted by jeepman3071
It's more complicated than just raising the minimum wage.

Yes costs have skyrocketed, and wages have remained flat. Raising the minimum wage won't improve anything unfortunately. Corporations won't agree to just suddenly turn less profit, they will build the increase into their costs, essentially making the "real" cost stay the same.

But the market will only bare a certain price and competition will force them to lower it to what the market will bare though.
 
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