ICE vehicles will be 75% of US car market in 2025

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You’re suggesting four major breakthroughs in energy storage capacity, battery charming rate, degradation rate and price. You left out the cost of the charging stations that can economically deliver lightening bolts of energy in 10 minutes .

These breakthroughs won’t come all at once and probably not til the end of our lives if ever. Seems easier to design cars for fast battery swapping than multi level technology breakthroughs.
The poster you responded to made some pretty out there claims. IMO 350KW charging is transformative enough to greatly reduce charging time, enough so that it's fairly competitive with gas vehicle stops, and is available now at many DCFC. Very few EVs can take advantage of it, the Porsche Taycan and Chevrolet Silverado (and corporate cousins) being the only ones I can think of that can reach 300+ KW on a broad portion of the charge curve. And the Silverado has such a huge battery that it still takes a fair amount of time to recharge. So that really leaves just the Taycan.

We need more EVs that can charge at speeds supported by today's technologies. That's the best, easily reachable thing that's out there that doesn't require any technological breakthroughs. Of the manufacturers out there, Hyun/Kia is probably doing the most to advance this with their 800v architecture.
 
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EVs could be more niche and stay that way. I’d still prefer to buy another over the alternative.
I wouldn’t mind one, especially the new Equinox EV for myself personally. My wife chose the 2025 gas version for its large SUV type stance.
I like them both, if I wasn’t trailing a boat, I wouldn’t mind trying out the electric Equinox it just doesn’t fit into what I need right now.
I would think at the least we would always maintain a gasoline vehicle at least until the whole marketplace gets ironed out because I don’t want to be limited in traveling time on any trips to my son’s house all my daughter’s house which is a solid 4 hour drive or more that I don’t stop for to both kids in two different states. We are in between the two different states which is nice and worked out well for Christmas as they both converged on our house 🙂
 
This is a good point. Starlink will not be affordable for most in the developing world. Maybe on a shared basis where multiple families (or a village) share the data.

Cellular data in my wife's native Brazil is ridiculously cheap compared to the US. And the speeds are acceptable in my experience, 15-50 Mbps depending on location. I can't imagine many people going for Starlink over cellular data there, unless they live somewhere with no cell signal.

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Funny, you should mention that. My wife’s native Philippines. We were just there in November visiting family. We both put second eSIM’s on our cell phones and the data was quite cheap.
Many people over there simply use that on their phones and use apps like Viber to text message, send photos and videos as well as phone calls.
But now you have me curious and I have to find out what they pay for their cable or fiber home Internet
 
Back in the day, I flew RC airplanes and they were all gas-powered. Everyone knew batteries were too heavy to power a model airplane. And expensive. And you have to recharge them. And they don't last as long. So nobody wanted an electric model airplane. Then I went to college for a couple years and when I graduated with money and went to a model shop, I found out RC airplanes were 100% electric. There were no trade-offs anymore. Electric was lighter, more powerful, had MORE range, was cheaper instead of more expensive, and you can recharge in 15 minutes. And nobody wanted a gas model airplane anymore.

I believe we are already at the tipping point for cars and it's been proven in places, like China, that have better innovation uptake. The tech transition isn't happening in the US because the US industry doesn't want it, not because the US people don't want it. The people just don't have a choice.

If people could buy the $17,000 electric cars they can buy in China, nobody would be buying expensive, noisy gas cars that stink up your garage and you can't even recharge them at home. The fact that we had to enable tariffs is all the proof you need. You don't enact 100% tariffs on products the population doesn't want. You do it when you are terrified that's all people are going to want, and you don't have anything to compete.
 
Coal or natural gas, depending where you liv
Coal or natural gas, depending where you live.
Coal has fallen below nuclear.

F550EA35-61CA-4D61-BAA7-351194A7A519.webp
 
Coal is only 16% of our power production in the US, but at least with an EV it’s possible to make EVs even cleaner by improving power production. You’re correct in your point though.


Tesla did fine last time at least. I think that’s why Elon isn’t against getting rid of the subsidy. Time will tell.

Back in the day, I flew RC airplanes and they were all gas-powered. Everyone knew batteries were too heavy to power a model airplane. And expensive. And you have to recharge them. And they don't last as long. So nobody wanted an electric model airplane. Then I went to college for a couple years and when I graduated with money and went to a model shop, I found out RC airplanes were 100% electric. There were no trade-offs anymore. Electric was lighter, more powerful, had MORE range, was cheaper instead of more expensive, and you can recharge in 15 minutes. And nobody wanted a gas model airplane anymore.

I believe we are already at the tipping point for cars and it's been proven in places, like China, that have better innovation uptake. The tech transition isn't happening in the US because the US industry doesn't want it, not because the US people don't want it. The people just don't have a choice.

If people could buy the $17,000 electric cars they can buy in China, nobody would be buying expensive, noisy gas cars that stink up your garage and you can't even recharge them at home. The fact that we had to enable tariffs is all the proof you need. You don't enact 100% tariffs on products the population doesn't want. You do it when you are terrified that's all people are going to want, and you don't have anything to compete.
I've had an electric car since 2018, probably won't be getting another one.
 
Yes, 1.1% decline, sales stalled and they tried like heck to prevent a loss. We can agree that 1.1% drop is nowhere Elon Musks playbook of 50% growth and ok, let but lets cut him a break and slice that in half to 25% sales growth or even more to 20%. I was just commenting between the conversation between you and @JeffKeryk with Jeff implying cutting out the $7,500 tax gift might help Tesla and rightfully so you pointing out the base model is already cheap. Yet the company sales stalled. What is going to pick them up for 2025?

You do know I am NOT at all taking sides, Im just analyzing of which my brain does WAY too much of in everything of life. (but that will be another thread someday when I am ready)
Hey @alarmguy ... A few observations... The 50% growth comment was Elon speak on Elon time; regardless it could not go on forever.
Not sure why you say sales stalled; car sales slightly declined YoY but there were a lotta sales. IMO, the decline was due to waiting for the refreshed Model Y Juniper. On the other hand, Tesla was offering everything from 0% financing to free Supercharging to move inventory.

My guess is, the new Model Y will sell like hotcakes. Why? The refresh was waaaaaaay overdue. The Model 3 Highland refresh resulted in changes that count; it's a better car. The Juniper will have these changes and likely more. The current Y was the 2023 best selling car in the world, dethroning the much cheaper Corolla (and RAV4), and sold tons this year. I believe there are a lot of current owners who are ready for a new car; it they liked their old Y they will love the Juniper.

Just my 2 cents. Of course, Tesla rumors abound. There were recent reports pointing to a new mass-market Tesla codenamed “Redwood”, which Deutsche Bank dubbed "Model Q" due in mid-2025.
Who the heck knows what's coming? He's wack.
 
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Rare earth metals still put us at risk with EVs.
There are EVs already in production that don’t use any rare earth elements.

The catch is that their range, performance, efficiency and cost are also lower.

Curious to see how EV adoption is affected by the likely reduction or removal of tax credits.

We already were in a marketplace where the credit was gone on ~80% Of EVs, from what I remember it was a nothing burger.

Though for what it’s worth a GM insider alluded to the killing of the Volt as due to the reduction/elimination of the credit . A car GM desperately needed during the Pandemic hybrid boom.
 
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The usual EV thread, with some of the usual naysayers.
OTOH, we have actual EV owners with actual EV experience telling us that they aren't all that costly on an all-in per mile basis and they they work just fine as daily drivers.
You gonna believe owner experience or non-owner phony objections?
 
The usual EV thread, with some of the usual naysayers.
OTOH, we have actual EV owners with actual EV experience telling us that they aren't all that costly on an all-in per mile basis and they they work just fine as daily drivers.
You gonna believe owner experience or non-owner phony objections?
“Human flight is impossible!”
-many people in the late 1800s and very early 1900s
 
The usual EV thread, with some of the usual naysayers.
OTOH, we have actual EV owners with actual EV experience telling us that they aren't all that costly on an all-in per mile basis and they they work just fine as daily drivers.
You gonna believe owner experience or non-owner phony objections?
It would take $1.25 gas at 35mpg to match my 530hp EV crossover per mile with my electricity costs. That's huge.
 
It would take $1.25 gas at 35mpg to match my 530hp EV crossover per mile with my electricity costs. That's huge.
Yes, but now were into the "I need a 530HP Crossover" territory, which is back to the status symbol thing. Circular argument.

The ROI on a cheap EV vs a basic Cheap Sedan is not positive just about anywhere in the US. California may be the exception. due to gasoline price.

Which is the basis for the original article. EV's have stopped growing exponentially, because for the most part there not cost effective for most families as basic transportation.
 
Hey @alarmguy ... A few observations... The 50% growth comment was Elon speak on Elon time; regardless it could not go on forever.
Not sure why you say sales stalled; car sales slightly declined YoY but there were a lotta sales. IMO, the decline was due to waiting for the refreshed Model Y Juniper. On the other hand, Tesla was offering everything from 0% financing to free Supercharging to move inventory.

My guess is, the new Model Y will sell like hotcakes. Why? The refresh was waaaaaaay overdue. The Model 3 Highland refresh resulted in changes that count; it's a better car. The Juniper will have these changes and likely more. The current Y was the 2023 best selling car in the world, dethroning the much cheaper Corolla (and RAV4), and sold tons this year. I believe there are a lot of current owners who are ready for a new car; it they liked their old Y they will love the Juniper.

Just my 2 cents. Of course, Tesla rumors abound. There were recent reports pointing to a new mass-market Tesla codenamed “Redwood”, which Deutsche Bank dubbed "Model Q" due in mid-2025.
Who the heck knows what's coming? He's wack.
Moving forward and actual sales numbers is all we can count on so we have no debate there. We will see what happens at the end of 2025. I fully expect to see some positive numbers because honestly right now they cant be any worse.

For 2024 Tesla growth in the USA marketplace was negative and less than 3% overseas. I mean, these are the numbers and why I love numbers, that is the only thing that counts.
As an investor one can come up with both positives and negatives for any investment and the numbers will prove them right or wrong.

*LOL* As far as Musk being a Wack, well, maybe but that is what makes him what he is and I think the USA is in a better place because of him.
 
Yes, but now were into the "I need a 530HP Crossover" territory, which is back to the status symbol thing. Circular argument.

The ROI on a cheap EV vs a basic Cheap Sedan is not positive just about anywhere in the US. California may be the exception. due to gasoline price.

Which is the basis for the original article. EV's have stopped growing exponentially, because for the most part there not cost effective for most families as basic transportation.
Sure, but I don't buy basic sedans. It actually makes what I like in cars very reasonably priced. I don't typically care for crossovers either. I just want practical form factor with some serious power to make it interesting. $44k is cheap for that. The performance hatches I was looking at were $5k-$15k more and not all of them were AWD which could be an issue for me. The benefit is how cheap it is per mile even after that cost for the tech involved, regardless of the power. If anything I'm thankful so many hate EVs. I just got a better deal because of it.

People aren't buying basic transportation. Look at the prevalence of high end SUVs and trucks. So much so that some car companies don't make cars anymore.
 
Sure, but I don't buy basic sedans. It actually makes what I like in cars very reasonably priced. I don't typically care for crossovers either. I just want practical form factor with some serious power to make it interesting. $44k is cheap for that. The performance hatches I was looking at were $5k-$15k more and not all of them were AWD which could be an issue for me. The benefit is how cheap it is per mile even after that cost for the tech involved, regardless of the power. If anything I'm thankful so many hate EVs. I just got a better deal because of it.

People aren't buying basic transportation. Look at the prevalence of high end SUVs and trucks. So much so that some car companies don't make cars anymore.
Top selling cars in the US. Four big pickups, Model Y, Rav4, CR-V, Rogue, Camry, Civic.

Rav4, CR-V, Rogue, Camry, Civic are basic cars. Sure there not the cheapest cars, bur there much cheaper than a comparable EV. Family is not looking for a Mirage.

You either compete with Rav4, CR-V, Rogue, Camry, Civic - both size and price, or you compete with F-150, or stay at 8% share. Well maybe it grows to say 15% over some period, but its not going to be the dominant disruptive tech some claimed in the near future unless something significant changes, as I mentioned.

Plug in hybrid Rav4 is very nice I am told. Maybe I buy one next?
 
Top selling cars in the US. Four big pickups, Model Y, Rav4, CR-V, Rogue, Camry, Civic.

Rav4, CR-V, Rogue, Camry, Civic are basic cars. Sure there not the cheapest cars, bur there much cheaper than a comparable EV. Family is not looking for a Mirage.

You either compete with Rav4, CR-V, Rogue, Camry, Civic - both size and price, or you compete with F-150, or stay at 8% share. Well maybe it grows to say 15% over some period, but its not going to be the dominant disruptive tech some claimed in the near future unless something significant changes, as I mentioned.

Plug in hybrid Rav4 is very nice I am told. Maybe I buy one next?
Model Y was the best selling in the world. Why stay confined to US based numbers?
 
Model Y was the best selling in the world. Why stay confined to US based numbers?
Because the article is about "US car market" - ie the title of this thread.

Constantly changing the goal posts is normal for the EV evangelists, but if you want.

Largest market is China. It is going all EV because the CCP wills it and has heavily subsidized. They wish to take over the global EV market. Its their veresion of Hegemon. We build air craft carriers, they take over markets. Along with they have no real access to fossil fuels and there cities were so polluted they couldn't breath.

EU is going EV. Also no easy access to fossil fuels. I just read today that Poland will build there first Nuclear Reactor. EU has not approved it - Poland doesn't seem to care.

Most other places don't seem to have much interest in EV's. First world problem.
 
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