Hydrogen, baby!

The cost of producing hydrogen will decrease drastically as the adoption of renewable energy becomes more widespread. A university in Australia has developed a process and equipment that is almost 100% efficient in the separation of oxygen from hydrogen.
Do you have a link? I'd like to know how they do it
 
Fleet data is good data. A bunch of rigs shunting containers around?....let 'em roll.
You'll never know they're on the job.

I'd bet the data, economics and conversation engendered by such tech applications will be of much more value than the dopey Tesla Cybertruck drivel we're reading.
I don't hear the pundits forecasting Hyundai's collapse. They're applying science.
 
Tech demonstration? Yes! Rabbit hole? No. This is actually the prefect environment for using hydrogen as the trucks aren't driven far from the refueling facility and California has excess electricity primarily because the widespread adoption of solar energy.
To be honest, it is true that California has excess solar energy. Here is a block of the famous” California Duck Back “ curve which is plot of Electricity demand - Solar electricity production. 2023 was a pivotal year in that solar electricity met the entire demand for several hours each day in the summer. In fact there was excess electrify that had be exported to other states. Now, there are many other factors going on such as the proper distribution off all this power, but it looks like a lot more investment in energy storage is required.

BB60A4C6-EA59-47E4-BB2C-03FC99E59D36.jpg
 
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So with huge leaks of H2 we could potentially see all our water (or a portion of it) spewing out to space. Just seems smarter to use what was designed to be used as fuel in the first place. And also from what I've read about what it can cause on the way there, makes it sound like H2 will be banned just like some refrigerants that aren't lighter than air, that are claimed to be bad.
 
To be honest, it is true that California has excess solar energy. Here is a block of the famous” California Duck Back “ curve which is plot of Electricity demand - Solar electricity production. 2023 was a pivotal year in that solar electricity met the entire demand for several hours each day in the summer. In fact there was excess electrify that had be exported to other states. Now, there are many other factors going on such as the proper distribution off all this power, but it looks like a lot more investment in energy storage is required.

View attachment 217743
Yes, but this has a cost:
Screen Shot 2024-05-02 at 7.48.48 PM.jpg


$0.44/kWh is $0.60/kWh CDN, that's OFF PEAK.
 
Tech demonstration? Yes! Rabbit hole? No. This is actually the prefect environment for using hydrogen as the trucks aren't driven far from the refueling facility and California has excess electricity primarily because the widespread adoption of solar energy.
California has the highest electricity prices in North America. Producing hydrogen at those rates is insane.
 
Rolling black/brown outs were caused by transmission lines and other infrastructure not being able to deliver the necessary power.
It was caused by there being sufficient power available in areas that needed it.
The latest article I read (within the last 30 days) is that on sunny days the level of renewable energy generated in CA basically drives the cost of electricity below $0.00. The issue here is storage. That's the big issue.
On sunny, moderate demand days (spring is the perfect time of year) Cali generates enough solar in the middle of the day that it matches demand for a brief period. However, the grid is not 100% solar, that power is exported, stored or curtailed, because that solar soon falls off and then other generation is needed.

Yes, this drives market prices to approach zero. However, the folks like Jeff that have NEM2 contracts get paid $0.40-$0.55/kWh for that solar output, which then sets the actual COST for that generation, outside of the market, which is reflected in retail rates, which are the highest in North America.

Storage will help shift some of that supply to other hours to avoid gas, but that's also expensive. Think the cheapest (they didn't note the final price) battery project I found for Cali was $400,000/MWh. So, let's say you wanted to shuffle 4,000MW of solar over-build from the mid-day to the evening for 4hrs (standard install size for Cali, 4hrs), that's 16,000MW; $6.4 billion dollars.
 
It was caused by there being sufficient power available in areas that needed it.

On sunny, moderate demand days (spring is the perfect time of year) Cali generates enough solar in the middle of the day that it matches demand for a brief period. However, the grid is not 100% solar, that power is exported, stored or curtailed, because that solar soon falls off and then other generation is needed.

Yes, this drives market prices to approach zero. However, the folks like Jeff that have NEM2 contracts get paid $0.40-$0.55/kWh for that solar output, which then sets the actual COST for that generation, outside of the market, which is reflected in retail rates, which are the highest in North America.

Storage will help shift some of that supply to other hours to avoid gas, but that's also expensive. Think the cheapest (they didn't note the final price) battery project I found for Cali was $400,000/MWh. So, let's say you wanted to shuffle 4,000MW of solar over-build from the mid-day to the evening for 4hrs (standard install size for Cali, 4hrs), that's 16,000MW; $6.4 billion dollars.
So, get it in terms that Jethro Bodine could cipher, ( we are talking of about California after all) , to convert from MW to KW we carry three knots and get $400 per kWh. This is close to one of those portable “power stations” you can buy to go camping with. For a typical homeowner that might need 50 kWhrs of electric energy for a day, that power storage device would cost $ 20,000. The savings for the California home owner to use solar power gathered during the day and use it in the evening would be $0.20 per KWhr. To move 50 kWhr would save $10 per day or around $3,000 per year. ( knocking off some for cloudy days etc.) payout would be 7 years. Jeff K would be all over this. Did I carry the knots correctly?
 
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Apparently a Tesla Powerwall 3 is somewhere around $10,000 but only lasts 10 to 12 years. One would need two of these to meet the requirements of the above posting. So the numbers here are more than $400 per kWh, more like $900 per kWh, with a 14 year payout. Yikes.

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Rolling black/brown outs were caused by transmission lines and other infrastructure not being able to deliver the necessary power. The latest article I read (within the last 30 days) is that on sunny days the level of renewable energy generated in CA basically drives the cost of electricity below $0.00. The issue here is storage. That's the big issue.
Transmission lines in California
RPE-L-BURYLINES-0909-04-WL-1.jpg


Transmission lines in Illinois
james-wainscoat-ACc9WvDRJA8-unsplash.jpg
 
Ok, let me try to be open to this idea...

Does hydrogen avoid the heavy battery weight that BEV's have? That seems to be a hindrance to large trucks. Drop the weight, perhaps it has an advantage.

But ultimately... what is the CO2 per mile? and on everyone's mind, cost/mile, since that is usually the main running cost? Initial cost is important too but if this doesn't make less CO2/mile then what was the point (other than looking good)?
Ok, let’s be open to evaluating this idea, with old-school science, not with “The Science” that’s taken over MSM the past few years. The entirety of human emissions today makes up about 3.6% of the 0.0420% of CO2 that’s in the atmosphere today. After we think of that infinitesimal amount of contribution, now we have to deal with the fact that CO2 makes about a 4% contribution to the greenhouse gas effect; water vapor contributes roughly 95% to that effect. So, to tally this up so far, ALL man made emissions total 0.0015% of the 4% contribution that CO2 makes to temperature.

Why would it matter one tiny bit if hydrogen fuel managed to cut even 50% total emissions of what would certainly be the tiniest fractions of total vehicles using hydrogen?

Now, consider the infrastructure that would have to be built (and the existing infrastructure that would be walked away from and destroyed). You’re talking hundreds of billions of dollars and you still wouldn’t have a distribution system even close to the current hydrocarbon system. On top of that, as mentioned, it takes roughly twice the energy contained in hydrogen to separate it and then compress it, meaning you’re literally wasting the entire energy you gained by turning it into a format that can be used in a vehicle. So that already insurmountable electricity deficit that’s standing at odds with the 100% EV mandates becomes even more daunting when considering half of the energy generated will be wasted to simply get hydrogen into a usable, mobile format.

Unless there is some way yet undiscovered to get hydrogen for completely free, and compress it using a large-scale hydrogen fuel cell-powered compressors, the financials of large-scale hydrogen use as a vehicle fuel will never cost anywhere close to what gas or diesel do on a MPGe.

And, at the end of all, hydrogen combustion can cause significantly higher levels of NOx to be emitted from cars. So, instead of emitting what’s essentially plant food, hydrogen has the very real potential of causing acid rain… you remember, the boogeyman of the late 80s and early 90s that never materialized even after all the MSM hoopla?

So, in all openness, I don’t see how anyone could professionally propose that hydrogen as a replacement for liquid fuels makes any sense whatsoever. 👍🏻
 
H2 is the future for many corporations, maybe not an exclusive one size fits all. Many large corporations are including H2 vehicles in their operations. Two examples are Walmart and Amazon ... a simple search shows where and how.
Lithium Battery vehicles might be an interim solution for the "agenda" but no way a realistic goal when gasoline is here and economical.
H2 replacement in the next 50 years seem much more likely to me anyway.




One must open their eyes to what they consider the impossible. At one time in history, no one imagined nuclear power either. Solutions can be found. Lithium certainly isnt the answer, where is the power to recharge come from for 300,000,000 cars?
Cant think in the present if your going to move into the future.
 
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The battery storage is moving ahead in Cali, with this 680 MW plant from Calpine. Slow but sure. I’m not sure if they care if their power price doubles. They just refuse to look at Nuclear power plants.

I’d like to see the business model. Somehow they must think they can lap up free solar power across noon and charge their batteries, selling it back to the grid in the early evening. Certainly, time of day billing has helped the business case.

E39A185A-55A3-48A1-ACE4-E165F43A0CCF.jpg
 
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The battery storage is moving ahead in Cali, with this 680 MW plant from Calpine. Slow but sure. I’m not sure if they care if their power price doubles. They just refuse to look at Nuclear power plants.

I’d like to see the business model. Somehow they must think they can lap up free solar power across noon and charge their batteries, selling it back to the grid in the early evening. Certainly, time of day billing has helped the business case.

View attachment 217801
Yeah, and the problem is, as I noted, that power isn't free, because you still have the cost of the NEM1/2 contracts, which in fact makes that power very expensive.
 
Ok, let’s be open to evaluating this idea, with old-school science, not with “The Science” that’s taken over MSM the past few years. The entirety of human emissions today makes up about 3.6% of the 0.0420% of CO2 that’s in the atmosphere today. After we think of that infinitesimal amount of contribution, now we have to deal with the fact that CO2 makes about a 4% contribution to the greenhouse gas effect; water vapor contributes roughly 95% to that effect. So, to tally this up so far, ALL man made emissions total 0.0015% of the 4% contribution that CO2 makes to temperature.

Why would it matter one tiny bit if hydrogen fuel managed to cut even 50% total emissions of what would certainly be the tiniest fractions of total vehicles using hydrogen?

Now, consider the infrastructure that would have to be built (and the existing infrastructure that would be walked away from and destroyed). You’re talking hundreds of billions of dollars and you still wouldn’t have a distribution system even close to the current hydrocarbon system. On top of that, as mentioned, it takes roughly twice the energy contained in hydrogen to separate it and then compress it, meaning you’re literally wasting the entire energy you gained by turning it into a format that can be used in a vehicle. So that already insurmountable electricity deficit that’s standing at odds with the 100% EV mandates becomes even more daunting when considering half of the energy generated will be wasted to simply get hydrogen into a usable, mobile format.

Unless there is some way yet undiscovered to get hydrogen for completely free, and compress it using a large-scale hydrogen fuel cell-powered compressors, the financials of large-scale hydrogen use as a vehicle fuel will never cost anywhere close to what gas or diesel do on a MPGe.

And, at the end of all, hydrogen combustion can cause significantly higher levels of NOx to be emitted from cars. So, instead of emitting what’s essentially plant food, hydrogen has the very real potential of causing acid rain… you remember, the boogeyman of the late 80s and early 90s that never materialized even after all the MSM hoopla?

So, in all openness, I don’t see how anyone could professionally propose that hydrogen as a replacement for liquid fuels makes any sense whatsoever. 👍🏻
Shell, one of the largest distributors of hydrogen for non-industrial purposes, also recently totally exited the game, shutting down all their stations. This is one of the things that, IIRC, drove the massive discounts on the Toyota Muira.

California’s Hydrogen Economy Dealt A Hammer Blow By Shell’s Exit (forbes.com)
 
Shell, one of the largest distributors of hydrogen for non-industrial purposes, also recently totally exited the game, shutting down all their stations. This is one of the things that, IIRC, drove the massive discounts on the Toyota Muira.

California’s Hydrogen Economy Dealt A Hammer Blow By Shell’s Exit (forbes.com)
I LOVE the depth and color of conversation that your insider access provides, along with your deep knowledge and understanding of the energy industry as a whole. 👏
 
Yeah, and the problem is, as I noted, that power isn't free, because you still have the cost of the NEM1/2 contracts, which in fact makes that power very expensive.
I thought the days of the juicy contracts for anything new is over. I wonder what the average length of the existing average contract is? It was discussed here that the move clobbered the solar companies.
 
I thought the days of the juicy contracts for anything new is over. I wonder what the average length of the existing average contract is? It was discussed here that the move clobbered the solar companies.
@JeffKeryk can probably tell us how long his NEM2 contract is good for.

In the very recent change to NEM3, they slashed the rate, bringing it down to what's supposed to reflect wholesale at $0.04/kWh, which (quite understandably) tanked the uptake rate. The idea was to encourage people to buy storage with their solar, since it was no longer the windfall that it previously represented.

The problem of course is that almost all residential solar in California is NEM1/2, and this will continue to drive rates going forward. While adding batteries allows moving that production around and reducing curtailment/exports, that adds yet another cost to an already incredibly expensive system.
 
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