Hybrid Battery Cost-- No Reason to Fear

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Originally Posted By: bdcardinal
just quoted a body shop for a Escape Hybrid battery, MSRP is $8500. the battery case was cracked and cannot be salvaged. the body shop called a wrecking yard and is having a used one delivered to us tomorrow to have us install. the Ford traction batteries are fairly large and weigh about 200lbs.


C'mon, we've plowed this ground before. It's hardly telling the whole story to quote Ford's rapacious prices for traction batteries, while not mentioning Toyota's prices. I got a quote before I was willing the buy the Prius. Its traction battery is $2300. I don't know what Ford's up to on this, other than perhaps trying to drive as many customers away from the concept as it can. I find it simply impossible to believe that Ford can't make a TB for anything less than 4x what Toyota makes it for.

Gee, so much for that old "import spares cost an arm and a leg compared to domestic" argument. . .
 
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Originally Posted By: tig1
For the 10 to 12 miles per gallon you save in gas doesn't the cost of the prius out way the savings? Then if you replace the battery I don't see much of a savings with hybrids. Am I wrong?


Yes, you are, on several levels. First, you mistakenly assume that the same analysis applies to everyone. It doesn't. No car makes sense for everyone. If you own a healthy, paid-for Corolla that's only a few years old, and don't drive much, you'd be insane to buy a hybrid for economic reasons. Moving the numbers in the other direction, especially if you drive a lot, it does not take long for a basic Prius, present MSRP starting at only $22,400, to justify its existence, especially if you're coming to it from an especially thirsty vehicle.

The vast majority of the people who buy these cars are NOT starry-eyed save the planet types. They made their decision to buy after working their calculators, doing the math. If the Prius wasn't economically justifiable, it wouldn't still be here in its tenth model year in the US.

Not only is the Prius one of the most interesting cars out there, it's also without question one of greatest targets of totally false propaganda.
 
It's obvious that you like yours, and that's good. I don't mean to be offensive, but feel led to say, I personally dislike the Prius, and everything it stands for, and I'm not ashamed to say it. Just my opinion. Would love to see "clean" turbo-diesels get popular in the U.S. market instead. They offer just as many mpg, sometimes more, and offer more power. That being said, I realize this will not happen here in the U.S.

If other people love their Prius, I have absolutely no problem with that in any way. I have some customers who just adore theirs. I just don't share that.

I suppose it's the performance enthusiast in me, or maybe the need to tow large loads at work...I just can't catch on to the love of hybrids. If I did, I'm sure I'd have much company in it, I just can't do it...
 
Originally Posted By: gmchevroletruck
It's obvious that you like yours, and that's good. I don't mean to be offensive, but feel led to say, I personally dislike the Prius, and everything it stands for, and I'm not ashamed to say it. Just my opinion. Would love to see "clean" turbo-diesels get popular in the U.S. market instead. They offer just as many mpg, sometimes more, and offer more power.


I would rethink what you just said. The turbo-diesel, at least as of now, do not offer the same level of fuel-efficiency as the newest Prius. Take a look at this comparison test:

http://www.edmunds.com/advice/fueleconomy/articles/153866/article.html
 
http://www.goodcleantech.com/2008/03/bmw_beats_prius_in_mpgs.php

http://www.popularmechanics.com/automotive/new_cars/4284188.html

you sure about that?

I realize you're not trying to change my mind about liking hybrids, any more than I'd try to convince you to prefer turbo-diesels...that's personal preference.

I've heard conflicting things about real world mpg numbers in comparisons between the turbo diesels and hybrids. In any case, it appears to be close. Notice that I didn't say "always way more mpg than a hybrid". I said "just as many, sometimes more", which I feel I was pretty close on that, no?
 
Originally Posted By: gmchevroletruck
http://www.goodcleantech.com/2008/03/bmw_beats_prius_in_mpgs.php

http://www.popularmechanics.com/automotive/new_cars/4284188.html

you sure about that?

I realize you're not trying to change my mind about liking hybrids, any more than I'd try to convince you to prefer turbo-diesels...that's personal preference.

I've heard conflicting things about real world mpg numbers in comparisons between the turbo diesels and hybrids. In any case, it appears to be close. Notice that I didn't say "always way more mpg than a hybrid". I said "just as many, sometimes more", which I feel I was pretty close on that, no?


The first article, which compared the BMW to the Prius, is not applicable since we cannot purchase that particular BMW in the US.

The second article was a comparison between the 2nd generation (04-09) Prius and the TDI. The newest 3rd generation Prius (2010 and newer) is a different animal and is far more efficient. The Edmunds comparison used a 2010.

If you look in the Edmunds comparison, the TDI wasn't exactly close-- it was still a good 15% off, if not a bit more. Don't get me wrong, I don't own a hybrid, but I'm just trying to set the facts straight here.
 
Economies of scale but not really - there are more Prii on the road than Escape Hybrids - and Ford goes through Sanyo for batteries, while Toyota, Honda - on the Insight/Civic Hybrid at least, and GM go through Panasonic EV. Panasonic has been making them for years, Sanyo is new to the game.
 
Originally Posted By: The Critic
Originally Posted By: gmchevroletruck
It's obvious that you like yours, and that's good. I don't mean to be offensive, but feel led to say, I personally dislike the Prius, and everything it stands for, and I'm not ashamed to say it. Just my opinion. Would love to see "clean" turbo-diesels get popular in the U.S. market instead. They offer just as many mpg, sometimes more, and offer more power.


I would rethink what you just said. The turbo-diesel, at least as of now, do not offer the same level of fuel-efficiency as the newest Prius. Take a look at this comparison test:

http://www.edmunds.com/advice/fueleconomy/articles/153866/article.html


And I would add the word 'SOMETIMES' in front of the 'more power' as well.
 
Originally Posted By: tenderloin
As hybrids and electric vehicles become more popular, some current thinking gaining popularity is you will not own the battery in the vehicle, but lease it from your local utility company.


Wow the propoganda the lefties will push. I work for a Utility and I can tell you we have no intention of getting into the battery leasing business.

what people will find with batteries that they will have a mortality curve and somewhere around 70-80% of rated life of the battery, the value of the hybrid car will depreciate like a rock since intellignet people will do their homework on this and will dump the car if they own one on some sucker and people in the market for a used on will either pay for a newer car with fewer hours on the battery or they will drastically cut their offer to reflect the cost of a battery repalcement.
I suspect there will be a lot of hybrids in the junkyards when the batteries fail, kind of like when the transission fails and people dont want to spend 2K$ to fix it.
 
I will only consider buying a hybrid if the price of the new battery and installation is about the same as the timing belt change, so around $500.

The fact that you can get a battery from junk yard for much cheaper doesn't mean anything, you can get a bunch of stuff from the junk yard at a fraction of the cost, but relying on junk yard as your parts source is not smart and should not be taken as basis for buying A hybrid or any other car for that matter..
 
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Originally Posted By: crinkles
Originally Posted By: PT1
The problem with hybrid battery technology will be the rare materials in them which will become very scarce and drive the price through the roof within about 10 years.


which metals?


Neodymium is used in an alloy for high-power, lightweight magnets for electric cars. Dysprosium is used to maintain neodymium's magnetic powers at high temperatures. Lanthanium is a major ingredient in hybrid car batteries.

A Prius electric motor uses 1 kg (2.2 lbs.) of neodymium and each battery uses 10-15 kg (22-33 lbs.) of lanthanium.

So what does this mean for the future of rare metals? It is estimated that demand will exceed supply by 40,000 tons annually in several years.

Where do these rare earth elements come from? China has some, but they are using them for their own production. That leaves Canada and Vietnam, and to a lesser extent the United States.
 
California metal mine regains luster

Fears of a shortage of rare-earth minerals used in high-tech applications has bolstered an effort to reopen production at the Mountain Pass Mine in the Mojave Desert.

By Martin Zimmerman

October 14, 2009

Fear of a shortage of rare-earth metals used in high-tech military and industrial products has spawned global efforts to reopen abandoned mines, including the formidable Mountain Pass Mine in California's Mojave Desert.

Discovered in the 1940s by uranium prospectors, Mountain Pass contains an array of rare earths, including cerium and lanthanum, in concentrations almost double those found at the world's biggest rare-earth mine, China's Bayan Obo.

"You're looking at the greatest rare-earth deposit in the world," says operations manager John Benfield as he ushers a visitor around the 2,200-acre site 60 miles southwest of Las Vegas.

Benfield's employer, Molycorp Minerals in Colorado, has just begun a two-year effort to restore Mountain Pass to its former role as a leading global producer. Those plans were given a boost recently amid fears that China was poised to ban exports of some of the scarcer rare-earth metals and to sharply limit shipments of others.

Although the Chinese government has sought to allay those concerns, a possible ban served as a reminder that the Asian nation is nearly the sole source worldwide for rare-earth metals and is likely to remain so for at least the next two years.

"You always want multiple sources for your raw materials," said Jim Hedrick, commodity specialist with the U.S. Geological Survey. "There could be a natural disaster that significantly disrupts the supply, or there could be geopolitical issues. . . . All it takes is for one person to antagonize another."

The reopening of the mine and related processing facilities would create about 900 jobs at Mountain Pass -- about 100 people work there now -- and provide U.S. companies with a reliable source for many key rare-earth metals.

These minerals, such as samarium and neodymium, are prized for chemical properties that make them indispensable in a variety of industrial and military uses including polishing glass, oil refining and manufacturing missile guidance systems.

They also play a crucial role in the development of "green" technologies such as hybrid cars, wind turbines and compact fluorescent lightbulbs. Heat-resistant magnets made with rare-earth alloys are key components of the electric motor in the Toyota Prius, for example. And lanthanum, one of the most abundant rare earths found at Mountain Pass, is used to make the car's nickel-metal hydride battery.

Mining operations ceased at Mountain Pass in 2002 amid environmental concerns and cut-rate competition from China, though processing of previously dug ore continues.

On a recent Friday, as the weekend traffic flowed on Interstate 15 toward Las Vegas and the temperature hovered around 110, the ore processing facilities hummed with activity. But the crushing mill and the conveyors that fed it with rock from the mine were silent.

The mine itself is about 1,500 feet across -- impressive to the uninitiated but smallish compared with the mile-wide behemoths around the globe where copper, gold and other minerals are excavated.

There's no giant earthmoving equipment rumbling about. Most of it was sold off when the mine was shut down. A small pump floats on the surface of the brackish green water 300 feet below. The only other signs of life in the pit are red-tailed hawks circling the mine's terraced sides in search of lunch.

Molycorp hopes to generate big profit at Mountain Pass by building an integrated manufacturing chain that starts with raw ore and ends with finished products ready for market.

"We don't want to be just a supplier of basic materials to other industries," said Benfield, the operations chief. "We want to develop our own technologies so we can determine our own destiny rather than rely on others. We're not just a mine."

The U.S. was once the world leader in rare-earth metal production. But low-cost competition from China has given that nation a near monopoly on rare-earth exports. In addition, China is becoming a key producer of rare-earth magnets.

That worries some analysts who fret that China could dominate the market for next-generation clean-energy technology in much the same way that a handful of oil-rich nations now control the bulk of world oil supplies. The fact that China and the U.S. are currently engaged in a trade tiff over tire imports hasn't soothed matters.

"They've been reducing exports of rare-earth metals for years," commodities analyst Jack Lifton said. "A few years ago, they exported 50% of their production. Now they're down to 25%. They could be down to zero by 2015 because their own demand is going up."

Rare-earth anxiety has spurred a global hunt for the minerals and is bringing back into production mining operations that have been closed for years, such as Mountain Pass.

Toyota Motor Corp. and other big users of rare-earth metals, such as Hitachi Ltd., are exploring ways to reduce their dependence on Chinese exports. They're using smaller amounts of rare-earth metals, recycling more, testing alternative materials and looking for new sources of supply.

Most of the rare-earth metals aren't all that rare. "Almost any rock you pick up has rare-earth elements in it," noted Thomas Monecke, a geology professor at the Colorado School of Mines.

The most common, cerium, is more plentiful than copper. The two rarest, thulium and lutetium, are 200 times more common than gold.

But unlike coal, iron and other industrially useful minerals, they are difficult to separate and can be mined profitably only when found in dense concentrations, such as at China's Bayan Obo mine and in clay deposits in that country's southern region.

The only other place on earth known to harbor such dense concentrations is Mountain Pass.

Molycorp, a former Chevron Corp. subsidiary, was sold to a group of private equity investors last year. Chevron had acquired the mine when it bought Unocal Corp. in 2005 and is still responsible for cleaning up some wastewater spills from past operations.

The mine's new owners are in the midst of an ambitious plan to pump out the millions of gallons of water at the bottom of the open-pit mine and resume mining by the second half of 2011.

Once ore is again coming out of the ground, Molycorp wants to install advanced extraction processes that will enable the company to achieve purities as high as those found in Chinese rare-earth metals but at a lower cost. They are also looking for joint venture partners to begin producing their own rare-earth magnets.

It will cost $100 million to $400 million to make that plan a reality. Molycorp Chief Executive Mark Smith said the company was exploring a variety of financing options including issuing debt or selling stock.

He also would consider investments from foreign investors, including Chinese.

The goal is to achieve a production rate of 20,000 tons of rare-earth products a year by January 2012, Smith said. That would meet about 20% of global rare-earth demand, based on last year's total worldwide production of around 124,000 tons, he said.

While Mountain Pass prepares to restart mining operations, mining companies are pushing to develop other known rare-earth deposits, such as those in Canada, Brazil and Australia.

The Chinese also are hunting for overseas sources, though worries about the country's control of world supplies is hampering those efforts. A Chinese mining company recently pulled out of a deal to expand its ownership stake in Australian rare-earth miner Lynas Corp. after the Australian government protested.

Although efforts to diversify the world's sources of rare-earth metals are welcomed in many quarters, Lifton notes that, as at Mountain Pass, these new locations won't become significant producers overnight.

"Until then," he said, "we'll just have to tiptoe through the Chinese tulips."

[email protected]

Times staff writer David Pierson in Beijing contributed to this report.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-rare-earth14-2009oct14,0,4493446,print.story
 
Originally Posted By: ekpolk
Originally Posted By: bdcardinal
just quoted a body shop for a Escape Hybrid battery, MSRP is $8500. the battery case was cracked and cannot be salvaged. the body shop called a wrecking yard and is having a used one delivered to us tomorrow to have us install. the Ford traction batteries are fairly large and weigh about 200lbs.


C'mon, we've plowed this ground before. It's hardly telling the whole story to quote Ford's rapacious prices for traction batteries, while not mentioning Toyota's prices. I got a quote before I was willing the buy the Prius. Its traction battery is $2300. I don't know what Ford's up to on this, other than perhaps trying to drive as many customers away from the concept as it can. I find it simply impossible to believe that Ford can't make a TB for anything less than 4x what Toyota makes it for.

Gee, so much for that old "import spares cost an arm and a leg compared to domestic" argument. . .


Compare every other part then.
 
I'm out of the hybrid market until those batteries are $100 or gas is $10/gallon whichever comes first.
grin2.gif
 
Originally Posted By: ekpolk
Originally Posted By: tig1
For the 10 to 12 miles per gallon you save in gas doesn't the cost of the prius out way the savings? Then if you replace the battery I don't see much of a savings with hybrids. Am I wrong?


Yes, you are, on several levels. First, you mistakenly assume that the same analysis applies to everyone. It doesn't. No car makes sense for everyone. If you own a healthy, paid-for Corolla that's only a few years old, and don't drive much, you'd be insane to buy a hybrid for economic reasons. Moving the numbers in the other direction, especially if you drive a lot, it does not take long for a basic Prius, present MSRP starting at only $22,400, to justify its existence, especially if you're coming to it from an especially thirsty vehicle.

The vast majority of the people who buy these cars are NOT starry-eyed save the planet types. They made their decision to buy after working their calculators, doing the math. If the Prius wasn't economically justifiable, it wouldn't still be here in its tenth model year in the US.

Not only is the Prius one of the most interesting cars out there, it's also without question one of greatest targets of totally false propaganda.


I was comparing the Prius to my Focus as the example. Cost of buying the vehicle to the fuel saved. Then concidering the two extra systems, my Focus doesn't have the battery or the electric motor, and the future maint. problems one might have with them. Just asking. For the average driver there doesn't seem to be any real world savings.
 
Forget MPG....for a valid comparison use GPM especially when thinking of trading in a paid-off vehicle for a newer, more efficient one. Often, it's cheaper to keep what you have.

A person buys a car that gets 30mpg to replace one that gets 15mpg...

15mpg=667g per 10k miles
30mpg=333g per 10k miles = 334 gallons saved, or around 50%

now, the 30mpg guy wants to buy a 50mpg vehicle....but the savings aren't as much..

30mpg=333g per 10k miles
50mpg=200g per 10k miles = 133 gallons saved, not nearly the savings from the first example.

Think gallons per 10k miles...

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN1925607520080619
 
133 gallons x $2.50 = $332/10K If the battery dies after 100K you have $3320 towards a new one. Too many unknowns to see the break even point.
 
1030091130.jpg


2007 Ford Excape Hybrid High Voltage Traction Battery

this is a junkyard one that a body shop had delivered to us to install in a vehicle. parts/receiving dept refused delivery since they bypassed us in the ordering process. they left it in an absent technicians stall, he will be super happy when he shows up on Monday. for a size reference, those are standard 1 gallon coolant bottles to the left of the battery. the battery weighs over 200lbs.
 
Originally Posted By: labman
133 gallons x $2.50 = $332/10K If the battery dies after 100K you have $3320 towards a new one. Too many unknowns to see the break even point.


Originally Posted By: labman
133 gallons x $2.50 = $332/10K If the battery dies after 100K you have $3320 towards a new one. Too many unknowns to see the break even point.


True, but a well-maintained gasoline car can easily go 100k+ without spending $3320. plus the owner already saved $2500+ upfront, giving him around 30k miles of "free" driving.
 
Originally Posted By: bdcardinal
1030091130.jpg


2007 Ford Excape Hybrid High Voltage Traction Battery

this is a junkyard one that a body shop had delivered to us to install in a vehicle. parts/receiving dept refused delivery since they bypassed us in the ordering process. they left it in an absent technicians stall, he will be super happy when he shows up on Monday. for a size reference, those are standard 1 gallon coolant bottles to the left of the battery. the battery weighs over 200lbs.

Made by RIM/Dell/Apple/Nokia OEM Sanyo...
55.gif


Holy moly, 200lbs? The Prius pack is a touch under 100, and is about the size of 2 cat litter bags stacked on each other. You should see the Honda battery, while it's inferior in design compared to the GM/Toyota Panasonic EV units it's as big as a typical desktop computer.
 
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