Hurricane Ian aims at Tampa in latest model run

[spasm3]

I'm in north carolina, but I'm stocking generator fuel and preparing for power outage simply from the rain that can down trees. Predicting 4-6 inches of rain in a short period.

Both chainsaws sharp and fuel mixed on hand.

 

[alarmguy]

It's showing it to go directly over us in SC as a weak TS to TD on Saturday and Sunday. We could use the rain.

The main danger in the Carolinas will be flooding and random tornadoes.

God do we need the rain. Im looking forward to it. We are high and dry here over 100 feet above sea level so no seawater coming our way either. Let it rain. (UPDATE- Parts of Coastal SC now has a Hurricane watch as of 11am Wed the 28th) https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/095758.shtml?cone#contents
However .. (next post)

 

[alarmguy]

I'm in north carolina, but I'm stocking generator fuel and preparing for power outage simply from the rain that can down trees. Predicting 4-6 inches of rain in a short period.

Both chainsaws sharp and fuel mixed on hand.

Yeah, as described above ... not sure why I am doing this to ourselves, other than a change of lifestyle. But we are moving to a low lying coastal area in NC next year, house under construction. We never lost power for more than 4 hours in 16 years here.
From what I understand we should invest in a generator, if even a small one for when we move to coastal NC ...
Depending where you are, you could get a lot of rain. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/095758.shtml?rainqpf#contents

 

[alarmguy]

I wonder if anyone from Fort Myers area in here. If so, doubt they will be online.
Going to be bad, looks like its going to come onshore there which is significantly further south than Tampa.
Now hurricane warnings on the East Coast of Florida as well, and hurricane watch all the way up to Charleston SC.
Here is the latest Wed 11AM
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/281458.shtml?

 

[ARCOgraphite]

My cousin just left here condo 1 mile from the Sarasota coast at about 8am to shelter with friends about 4 miles inland from the coast. Weather Underground are predicting over a foot of rain in that area. I hope her condo insurance is good for this. I did mention that she should get stuff off the floor wherever possible. Her Nephew taped up her windows yesterday. I don't know what that does for you other than you would get hit by a lager piece of glass? Possibly help maintain some integrity with a smaller impact? But she is not home, so no worries about flying glass. I asked her to conserve her phone so I received no texts since. I hope she doesn't think I blew her off.

- Ken

 

[2strokeNorthstar]

Correct "Mandatory" means you are on your own if you get into trouble. You will not be able to rely on anyone saving you if you do get in trouble.

Sort of. They keep tabs on who stayed and do check on them when they can. They won’t knowingly just let you die and say “we told you so”

 

[MolaKule]

It now appears that the Hurricane is moving into that bay (estuary) between North Port, Cape Coral, and Bonita Springs.

All the rivers connecting to that bay should rise due to the storm surge.

https://www.windy.com/-Show---add-more-layers/overlays?satellite,26.544,-82.484,9

 

[alarmguy]

Sort of. They keep tabs on who stayed and do check on them when they can. They won’t knowingly just let you die and say “we told you so”

Agree but there are storms, at least on the east coast, where they clearly state, if you dont leave, we will not put our people in danger trying to rescue you until that danger passes.

 

[ARCOgraphite]

Just looked at the path; wow what a hard right turn. I would be surprised if it maintains that heading - thinking its zig-zagging or an artifact of "finding the centre".
Sanibel Island , Cape Coral and Fort Myers - a major populated area - are in trouble on this day. Spent some time in Ft Myers in the 80's and 90's as my Parents moved there when my dad retired from At&t in 1983. Watched the main roads (Daniel Pkwy) go from a little two lane with cattle ranches and undeveloped land to a four of six lane with overbuilt urban creep "junk" business every 100 yards. This situation is very scary to read about and very saddening.
- Ken

 

[ARCOgraphite]

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2022/hurricane-ian

 

[gman2304]

I'm in north carolina, but I'm stocking generator fuel and preparing for power outage simply from the rain that can down trees. Predicting 4-6 inches of rain in a short period.

Both chainsaws sharp and fuel mixed on hand.

I just filled 2 five gallon gas cans, rolled my generator onto my deck beside the gen connection box, Dewalt flashlight batteries are charging, cleaned my gutters, hoping I won’t need the chainsaw.

 

[alarmguy]

My cousin just left here condo 1 mile from the Sarasota coast at about 8am to shelter with friends about 4 miles inland from the coast. Weather Underground are predicting over a foot of rain in that area. I hope her condo insurance is good for this. I did mention that she should get stuff off the floor wherever possible. Her Nephew taped up her windows yesterday. I don't know what that does for you other than you would get hit by a lager piece of glass? Possibly help maintain some integrity with a smaller impact? But she is not home, so no worries about flying glass. I asked her to conserve her phone so I received no texts since. I hope she doesn't think I blew her off.

- Ken

Good move on her part to get away from the coast. Being on what appears to be taking shape she will be on the far north side of the hurricane, I really wouldnt expect much tidal flooding near her but would hope she isnt on the main floor just in case.
I wouldnt expect her windows to blow out but the tape is there to maybe help with flying glass.
The way it sounds is she might be lucky and avert the major brunt of the storm except the flooding rains, really right across the state in any area that is normally affected by them. They will get wind for sure but most likely barely hurricane force.
Still at only 83 miles from the eye, that's a close call being this storm wasnt behaving the way they thought, right up until this moment that seems to making landfall in the Fort Myers area.

A little good news there is in the link above, it is moving faster than they thought so that might help but I am sure much damage from rain water will still happen.

 

[alarmguy]

As of 11AM most anyone near Tampa looks safe ASSUMING the track stays the same they wont even see hurricane force winds. VERY bad for the Fort Myers area though, worse than very bad. OF course should the storm not stay on track and skirt the coast more Tampa can get more of an affect but would be more weak by then.
That little brown circle is the actual hurricane field at 11AM Wed
Interesting part in this graph is it will rapidly skirt to the east coast and present a threat to that area. Very interesting.

 

[reemoeMO]

Just looked at the path; wow what a hard right turn. I would be surprised if it maintains that heading - thinking its zig-zagging or an artifact of "finding the centre".
Sanibel Island , Cape Coral and Fort Myers - a major populated area - are in trouble on this day. Spent some time in Ft Myers in the 80's and 90's as my Parents moved there when my dad retired from At&t in 1983. Watched the main roads (Daniel Pkwy) go from a little two lane with cattle ranches and undeveloped land to a four of six lane with overbuilt urban creep "junk" business every 100 yards. This situation is very scary to read about and very saddening.
- Ken

Been keeping an eye on Sanibel here: https://www.mysanibel.com/live-street-cams

The “Lindgren & East Gulf North” one already showing water nearly as high as a stop sign! I’m afraid the island is going to suffer some long-term damage.

I've been vacationing in the area since 1988; really hope significant damage is avoided!

 

[spasm3]

I just filled 2 five gallon gas cans, rolled my generator onto my deck beside the gen connection box, Dewalt flashlight batteries are charging, cleaned my gutters, hoping I won’t need the chainsaw.

Yes probably I won't need it. But if i don't prepare, i'll have no fuel, no fresh chainsaw gas etc and i'll wish i had. Better to have it and not need it.

I have 10gallons gen fuel on hand. Thats 2 days worth solid running in the HF 4375.

 

[alarmguy]

Fort Myers Mayor said if you didnt leave your home by now, stay there.
National Hurricane Center updated the storm surge (wall of ocean water) for the area, depending on your exact location in Fort Myers area from Englewood to Bonita Beach of 12 to 18 feet high. This area is going to be battered for what residents think is eternity over the next 8 hours.

 

[gman2304]

Yes probably I won't need it. But if i don't prepare, i'll have no fuel, no fresh chainsaw gas etc and i'll wish i had. Better to have it and not need it.

Exactly

 

[wlk]

The track is going about a block from my mom's house in Englewood when I last checked. Just heard from her, power is in and out, and one tree they have is damaged but the house is okay. She and my stepdad would not leave

 

[alarmguy]

The track is going about a block from my mom's house in Englewood when I last checked. Just heard from her, power is in and out, and one tree they have is damaged but the house is okay. She and my stepdad would not leave

Englewood = Not a place to be, hopefully not in a flood zone. Looks like they are and will be right on the northern/west edge of the storm, I guess you will know more, assuming you can contact them in a few hours. But if you had to place to choose in a hurricane, that would be the place to be, not that its a safe choice though. Im sure things are going to get worse in the coming hours. Good luck to them.

 

[wlk]

Englewood = Not a place to be, hopefully not in a flood zone. Looks like they are and will be right on the northern/west edge of the storm, I guess you will know more, assuming you can contact them in a few hours. But if you had to place to choose in a hurricane, that would be the place to be, not that its a safe choice though. Im sure things are going to get worse in the coming hours. Good luck to them.

Yeah you don't want to be on the inward turning cycle where the water is pushing in. Punta Gorda, Ft. Myers and Cape Coral are getting that water surge which they are just south of her across Charlotte Harbor.
She lives on a canal and it was just up over halfway up the little hill she lives on and has been holding there.