Hurricane Ian aims at Tampa in latest model run

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alarmguy said:
As with all hurricanes until it makes landfall things can change up a little bit. Not going to Sarasota was probably a good call. This was the 11 AM discussion from the national hurricane center, it will be interesting to see the next update which usually occurs around 5 PM
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/271500.shtml?
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The good news is my one of the people I live with says that were far enough Inland that we might lose power but we're not going to flood and we're in a pretty safe area.

Beats going to some psycho's house....

I made a little video for Rain Man Ray I have no idea if he's going to see it but I mean heads up he's due to look at my car at the end of the month but this is a little bit more important than cars and videos don't you think. So although I was going to say hello in person which I have done before even my coworker said that it wasn't a good idea.
 
Most of Pinellas County is under "Mandatory Evacuation Order" although I also heard some random radio station this morning saying that they're not going to come to your house and arrest you if you decide to stay ..
 
schwinney said:
Most of Pinellas County is under "Mandatory Evacuation Order" although I also heard some random radio station this morning saying that they're not going to come to your house and arrest you if you decide to stay ..
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Correct "Mandatory" means you are on your own if you get into trouble. You will not be able to rely on anyone saving you if you do get in trouble.
 
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Trav said:
What is with all the EV's when power is out for possibly a few weeks or the battery goes dead sitting in an endless traffic jam of people trying to evacuate. Not to make this an EV thing but you know the storm (any storm) will be used because the storm was caused by climate change hence the need to push the EV agenda even harder.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/26/weather/hurricane-rapid-intensification-ian-noru-climate
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Climate change not allow in this forum. The cause for intense hurricanes I think can be discussed and its not about climate change as people discuss vs more sunlight hitting the ocean and warming it up. Lets not comment further but here is the story from the very agency that predicts and tracks even the current hurricane = NOAA.
A study about the effects of air pollution and lets leave it at that and get back to the storm.

Study-Reducing-human-caused-air-pollution-in-North-America-and-Europe-brings-surprising-result-more-hurricanes
 
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schwinney said:
Most of Pinellas County is under "Mandatory Evacuation Order" although I also heard some random radio station this morning saying that they're not going to come to your house and arrest you if you decide to stay ..
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They can’t arrest you for not leaving.

But under that order, they can refuse to come help you if you stay.

You stay at your own risk.
 
Trav said:
What is with all the EV's when power is out for possibly a few weeks or the battery goes dead sitting in an endless traffic jam of people trying to evacuate. Not to make this an EV thing but you know the storm (any storm) will be used because the storm was caused by climate change hence the need to push the EV agenda even harder.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/26/weather/hurricane-rapid-intensification-ian-noru-climate
Click to expand...


You can use the EV as a backup power source. Plug a fan into it.

If water floods it then stay far away. It’s done for.
 
Track still uncertain but NHC has been moving the forecast track south of Tampa which would reduce flooding in Tampa than if it was north of Tampa. It will be bad I would assume either way but not as bad, unless it evens moves more further south.
Latest track that I am seeing is looking closer to the Fort Myers / Naples area but the track is still giving NHC problems forecasting this one.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/161142.shtml?cone#contents
 
Astro14 said:
They can’t arrest you for not leaving.

But under that order, they can refuse to come help you if you stay.

You stay at your own risk.
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I just spent the last hour talking with my landlord we're bringing in things that can become projectiles and she tells me that this area has never flooded and that the house is solid block construction and basically that the water from a nearby water source did come up to down the street one time but that was an extreme case so all things considered I think I have an informed decision.
 
I believe I've changed my mind a category 4 by sending storm surge from the river so I'm probably going to drive north because apparently it's going to hit land Wednesday or Thursday so let me start to get out of here now I'll just go to a rest stop or something.

I will probably drive towards Jacksonville at least towards Ocala
 
schwinney said:
I believe I've changed my mind a category 4 by sending storm surge from the river so I'm probably going to drive north because apparently it's going to hit land Wednesday or Thursday so let me start to get out of here now I'll just go to a rest stop or something.

I will probably drive towards Jacksonville at least towards Ocala
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A rest stop is a poor idea. Sleeping out a Hurricane in your car?

You need a hotel, a relative, or a friend who can give you a room, not a rest stop.
 
ARCOgraphite said:
hurricane-sandy-seaside-boardwalk.jpg
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I've been to Seaside Heights on a trip once as a kid, rode that very coaster. That ride is very memorable since it was at the end of a pier and you have the view of the ocean and of the beach on both ends as far as the eye can see. Awesome memories.

There was also a haunted house in-door roller coaster next to it that was especially scary as a child. The carriage would swivel and tilt into displays around turns in the dark haunted house. One of the displays was a very realistic looking mummy....because it was actually a human corpse.

IIRC investigators and the medical examiner removed the body and postulated the corpse was of a cowboy / vigilante that was shot out West during the frontier days. The body dehydrated in the desert until it was found and somehow made it into NJ and a haunted house ride.

No laws were broken and the mummy was reinstalled in the ride until it finally, and oddly, had a burial at sea from Hurricane Sandy.
 
schwinney said:
I believe I've changed my mind a category 4 by sending storm surge from the river so I'm probably going to drive north because apparently it's going to hit land Wednesday or Thursday so let me start to get out of here now I'll just go to a rest stop or something.

I will probably drive towards Jacksonville at least towards Ocala
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I have to agree with Astro, you really need to be careful on what you doing. I gave you the links to the national Hurricane center and Noaa for local forecasts.
Some of your ideas are far more dangerous than staying in a home with a category three hurricane.
For example central to Northeast Florida which is where you’re thinking of driving can get 12 to 18 inches of rain which will be far worse than any wind damage you would’ve experienced.
There’s the potential for catastrophic flooding from the rain which will be far worse than wind.
Flooding is what kills people and if I read correctly your landlord states you are on high ground so coastal flooding is not a concern. Driving into flood zones from massive amounts of rain would be a concern, just my thoughts this evening and good luck to you!
“
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with isolated
totals up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with
isolated totals up to 12 inches.

Widespread catastrophic flash, urban, and river flooding is expected
across central and west Florida beginning midweek. Widespread
considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across
northern Florida …. “

Source = https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/272114.shtml?
 
schwinney said:
I believe I've changed my mind a category 4 by sending storm surge from the river so I'm probably going to drive north because apparently it's going to hit land Wednesday or Thursday so let me start to get out of here now I'll just go to a rest stop or something.

I will probably drive towards Jacksonville at least towards Ocala
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You do not want to be on the road in a hurricane, not to mention the roads will likely be a parking lot anyway.

I am assuming its just you - no pets? If so, go find your nearest shelter - preferably one you can walk to. The county has likely identified a place you can stash your car that is hopefully above surge levels so do that first if you still can. The shelter will suck a bit but just hang out there till the storm passes then wonder home. Worst case is you waste a day.

Shelters get a bad rap mostly due to Katrina, but that was a unique event in a very unique part of the world. Most shelters are things like a school gym or city building, and it will be safe, will have AC until they run out of power, and will be mostly populated by older folks or families that didn't have the funds to leave or whatever.
 
Astro14 said:
A rest stop is a poor idea. Sleeping out a Hurricane in your car?

You need a hotel, a relative, or a friend who can give you a room, not a rest stop.
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I agree rest stop is a bad idea.
Maybe a parking garage on 2nd floor and above.

South and Central Florida had a very wet summer rain season before this hurricane, the ground is already saturated. Immediately areas will start flooding and people will be stranded.
 
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schwinney said:
I believe I've changed my mind a category 4 by sending storm surge from the river so I'm probably going to drive north because apparently it's going to hit land Wednesday or Thursday so let me start to get out of here now I'll just go to a rest stop or something.

I will probably drive towards Jacksonville at least towards Ocala
Click to expand...

Ocala / Gainesville will be a good place to go.
 
Some of the Texas public rest stops have storm shelters. I was just checking one out the other day near Corpus Christi. It's basically a concrete prison cell next to a restroom.
 
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