Hurricane Ian aims at Tampa in latest model run

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schwinney said:
Plan is to go to work as usual until someone tells me otherwise.

if it is time to leave work or not come or anything like that my boss will let us know.

Yeah I'm in the area. Never been in a hurricane... and I still don't watch a TV or listen to any news.
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What city are you in ?
 
alarmguy said:
Don’t miss read what I post, no hurricane is good, but I’m just reading the exaggerated headlines at the moment, even though I never go to CNN today I did to see what kind of exaggeration they have.
Saying this hurricane can be one “never seen in our lifetime” is a joke. It’s forecast to hit the coast as a strong category two, Something Florida is more than capable of handling.
You have to read the fine print which is no fun for mass media and advertising revenue. One in which the national hurricane center government website specifies that the hurricane will encounter shear as it gets close to the Florida coast, at most a very weak three or strong two.

Of course if you live on the coast no matter what this isn’t good news but people knew that when they bought homes on the coast.
And let’s remember it’s still way way way too early to know the path.

I think the rainfall might be a bigger threat to the north Florida area and Georgia
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I agree that the media tries to create hysteria to boost ratings. But there is a consensus as to where it will hit. And as far as it dropping in wind speed before landfall what you aren't considering is that as it approaches the coast that wall of storm surge from Cat 4 winds doesn't dissipate even if the wind does, it will push into Tampa Bay and as it is pushed into the bay it has nowhere to go so it piles up. When Hurricane Ivan hit Pensacola my house at the upper end of Escambia Bay suffered from this very effect and was flooded by the surge. The surge was so high it collapsed the Interstate 10 bridge over the bay. I speak from 74 years experience living in Florida having been through more storms than I can remember.
 
ARCOgraphite said:
I don't know much about mobile homes.
Right now, I think its more of a flooding concern in the Tampa / St Pete area. Major storm surge and over a 1/2 foot of rain in 24 hours. My cousin's condo has a big waterway in the back yard.
If I had a Manufactured home anywhere near predicted land fall, I'd be outta there.

Current path is land fall near Cedar Springs which is a wildlife conservation area and less populated by people.

I asked my Cousin if the condo association has a pallet of sandbags available - but she couldnt lift those unless she filled them in place. Maybe a neighbor could help.

Anybody ever clear G.E silicone calk the door gaps up a foot or so from the threshold on the outside? Wonder of that would do anything beneficial? At least you can pull that stuff off if you make a nice fat bead. But I guess water would seep through the walls if they are anything other than epoxy painted cement blocks.

- Ken
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I don’t think caulk is going to do anything. If she’s a mile inland storm surge isn’t a concern. I’d be more worried about flash flooding from heavy rainfall backing up in her parking lot or something.
 
schwinney said:
How bad was it?

I know people can lose their lives in a hurricane but I've never been in one so this will be my first.

Just put two videos up of the starting rain...
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Where do you live?

I'll give you a brief primer. If your house is not in a flood zone that is most of the battle. If your home is in Florida and is of recent construction it meets the upgraded codes to withstand most hurricane force winds. If you have trees near the house that construction won't matter if a tree falls on it. And sitting in the dark while the wind howls around your creaking house for hours gets on your nerves fast.

But even if you survive the storm without damage you will face no electricity (and possibly no water) for days or weeks. Life without A/C in Florida is brutal. You will most likely lose all of the food in your refrigerator/freezer. Get used to lining up for hours for gasoline at the few stations that have electric backup power to pump gas. The same goes for groceries. You will quickly come to appreciate the National Guard, Salvation Army, and your local electric linemen.

Other than that you will be fine.
 
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jhs914 said:
Where do you live?

I'll give you a brief primer. If your house is not in a flood zone that is most of the battle. If your home is in Florida and is of recent construction it meets the upgraded codes to withstand most hurricane force winds. If you have trees near the house that construction won't matter if a tree falls on it. And sitting in the dark while the wind howls around your creaking house for hours gets on your nerves fast.

But even if you survive the storm without damage you will face no electricity (and possibly no water) for days or weeks. Life without A/C in Florida is brutal. You will most likely lose all of the food in your refrigerator/freezer. Get used to lining up for hours for gasoline at the few stations that have electric backup power to pump gas. The same goes for groceries. You will quickly come to appreciate the National Guard, Salvation Army, and your local electric linemen.

Other than that you will be fine.
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A good tip is to load up your freezer with plastic water bottles, as many cases as you can fit in there. This will carry you through more than a few days of a cold refrigerator and cold food.
 
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jhs914 said:
I agree that the media tries to create hysteria to boost ratings. But there is a consensus as to where it will hit. And as far as it dropping in wind speed before landfall what you aren't considering is that as it approaches the coast that wall of storm surge from Cat 4 winds doesn't dissipate even if the wind does, it will push into Tampa Bay and as it is pushed into the bay it has nowhere to go so it piles up. When Hurricane Ivan hit Pensacola my house at the upper end of Escambia Bay suffered from this very effect and was flooded by the surge. The surge was so high it collapsed the Interstate 10 bridge over the bay. I speak from 74 years experience living in Florida having been through more storms than I can remember.
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Don't misunderstand my posts, I am not discounting hurricanes, just the media reporting until we know more. I also see the consensus of the models tightening up.
I know all about storm surges growing up on Long Island as well my brothers water front home surviving Super Storm Sandy which flooded the first two levels of his home far worse than any coastal storm previous.
The flooding though are people who choose to live in flood zones in most cases along the coast, but not inland flooding. Right now its a bit early to forecast disaster but yes I do except coastal flood zones to get hit, seems almost unavoidable at this point, we will see... As you know with tidal flooding, it also depends on at what time the storm surge comes, low tide or high tide, also if there is a moon tide, high or low.
 
alarmguy said:
Don't misunderstand my posts, I am not discounting hurricanes, just the media reporting until we know more. I also see the consensus of the models tightening up.
I know all about storm surges growing up on Long Island as well my brothers water front home surviving Super Storm Sandy which flooded the first two levels of his home far worse than any coastal storm previous.
The flooding though are people who choose to live in flood zones in most cases along the coast, but not inland flooding. Right now its a bit early to forecast disaster but yes I do except coastal flood zones to get hit, seems almost unavoidable at this point, we will see... As you know with tidal flooding, it also depends on at what time the storm surge comes, low tide or high tide, also if there is a moon tide, high or low.
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If you’re calling Hurricane Sandy, which was a category 2, “Super Storm Sandy”, then you’ve bought into the media hype.
 
alarmguy said:
Don’t miss read what I post, no hurricane is good, but I’m just reading the exaggerated headlines at the moment, even though I never go to CNN today I did to see what kind of exaggeration they have.
Saying this hurricane can be one “never seen in our lifetime” is a joke. It’s forecast to hit the coast as a strong category two, Something Florida is more than capable of handling.
You have to read the fine print which is no fun for mass media and advertising revenue. One in which the national hurricane center government website specifies that the hurricane will encounter shear as it gets close to the Florida coast, at most a very weak three or strong two.

Of course if you live on the coast no matter what this isn’t good news but people knew that when they bought homes on the coast.
And let’s remember it’s still way way way too early to know the path.

I think the rainfall might be a bigger threat to the north Florida area and Georgia
Click to expand...
The wheather channel stated the last Category 3 hurricane to hit Tampa bay was 1921. Thats a 101 year ago. I would say that not in anyones lifetime LOL.
 
Wife’s papa has a house in port charlotte. We were there in 2004 after Charlie?? The screen room, boat and lift were damaged. Had a huge roof leak from the wind and rain. I spent several days of our vacation using a saws all to cut up metal and clean things up.

We have plans to go for 2 weeks in November. We’ll see how it all goes. Hopefully everyone stays safe. All the best to the people on the path.

Just my $0.02
 
wemay said:
Godspeed, have your supplies ready and hunker down if staying home, or evacuate if asked to do so by authorities. Same goes for folks in the Cayman Islands and Cuba.
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Uh Wemay,

Not to make light of the impending hurricane, but folks have been trying to “evacuate” from Cuba for decades.

Without any prompting by the authorities or any particular hurricane.

And likely for very good reasons………….
 
They are predicting the west coast of FL could be hit hard, and last time it was hit as hard as Ian might hit was 100 years ago.
 
alarmguy said:
Don't misunderstand my posts, I am not discounting hurricanes, just the media reporting until we know more. I also see the consensus of the models tightening up.
Click to expand...
They are reporting what the experts predict at this time. Last thing you want is to under estimate the potential impacts, then have people not take as much precaution as they should and fall prey to a much stronger hurricane than the predictions saw. It takes time to prepare. Of course more is known as it gets closer, but you can't ignore and underplay it until it's too late.
 
Astro14 said:
If you’re calling Hurricane Sandy, which was a category 2, “Super Storm Sandy”, then you’ve bought into the media hype.
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Why were you there when a 10 foot wall of water overran coastal homes of Long Island New York?
Over 60 people died in the NY/NJ area.
250,000 vehicles ruined and thousands of homes,
Way too much for me to type but a Google search of super storm Sandy and the impact of New York in the United States contains all the factual information
It was a super storm at that point over 1000 miles wide.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Sandy

Media hype?
Here are the facts nothing comes close.
In the United States, Hurricane Sandy affected 24 states, including the entire eastern seaboard from Florida to Maineand west across the Appalachian Mountains to Michigan and Wisconsin, with particularly severe damage in New Jersey and New York. Its storm surge hit New York City on October 29, flooding streets, tunnels and subway lines and cutting power in and around the city.[13][14]Damage in the United States amounted to $65 billion (2012 USD)””

Here’s some on the New York City area=
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Sandy_in_New_York
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/30/fiv...e-destruction-caused-by-superstorm-sandy.html

https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/two-years-later-nasa-remembers-hurricane-sandy/



https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/superstorm-sandy-anniversary-20141029
 
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