Hurricane Ian aims at Tampa in latest model run

[alarmguy]

Yeah you don't want to be on the inward turning cycle where the water is pushing in. Punta Gorda, Ft. Myers and Cape Coral are getting that water surge which they are just south of her across Charlotte Harbor.
She lives on a canal and it was just up over halfway up the little hill she lives on and has been holding there.

Exactly, I can see you know about storms, dead on right about the other side.
I’ll admit though it was a little bit of Chancey if that storm track went the wrong way and moved past her which we know now it will not.
Glad so far everything is working out!

 

[wlk]

Exactly, I can see you know about storms, dead on right about the other side.
I’ll admit though it was a little bit of Chancey if that storm track went the wrong way and moved past her which we know now it will not

Just looked at the weather radar and the eye shifted just to the east of them and is going up Charlotte harbor and towards Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda. I just got off the phone with her and their back patio just ripped off the house and she had to go.
Yeah I lived most my life in FLA and lived thru many hurricanes.

 

[alarmguy]

Just looked at the weather radar and the eye shifted just to the east of them and is going up Charlotte harbor and towards Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda. I just got off the phone with her and their back patio just ripped off the house and she had to go.
Yeah I lived most my life in FLA and lived thru many hurricanes.

Wow, yeah that’s close.
Moved to South Carolina from Long Island 16 years ago, not as much hurricanes although a few but coastal storms called nor’easter‘s.
16 years high and dry in South Carolina 100 feet above sea level we are now getting ready to put our house on the market and ironically moved to the coast of North Carolina, go figure … sometimes I wonder if we’re doing the right thing but it’s a lifestyle and time for it at this point in our lives, we love the coast.

 

[wlk]

Wow, yeah that’s close.
Moved to South Carolina from Long Island 16 years ago, not as much hurricanes although a few but coastal storms called nor’easter‘s.
16 years high and dry in South Carolina 100 feet above sea level we are now getting ready to put our house on the market and ironically moved to the coast of North Carolina, go figure … sometimes I wonder if we’re doing the right thing but it’s a lifestyle and time for it at this point in our lives, we love the coast.

I moved 17yrs ago to PA from Florida. I do miss the coast but life is here now. In the next 12 yrs or so I am planning on retirement and maybe do the snow bird thing and get back there more. Too hot in the summers to live full-time.

 

[Inked]

Another member posted this link in the past and it’s one of a few (NOAA, IBISEYE etc) that I check on when monitoring storms in my area.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-84.38,28.30,2898

 

[dishdude]

 

[jhs914]

I actually just took a test run to Ocala and when I left it wasn't even raining there. Jax a little more than full tank to navigate to so I didn't.

This morning there was mandatory Evac for most of Pinellas County now I wonder if the track of the storm has changed.. I kept hearing a report from 2:00 p.m. that included Marion and other counties but I think they're saying it's going to hit around Fort Myers now and it's about a hundred miles off Naples and flooding Key West

This will be a bad one for sure but I'm getting the impression I'll see Heavy Rain and high wind but nothing damaging. Landlord says I live in a "built" house with reinforced walls or something. Those I live with say the power might go out and that's about it for where I'm at, says the water came up to the end of the street once but never got to where we are, that probably happened in the last Category 4.

If SHTF I can jump back on the road and get to Ocala again.

Check back in when this is over and let us know how your fared. As others have said, the time to evacuate is before the storm, not during it.

 

[Slow Car Sport Mode]

No, if SHTF, you’re stuck.

High winds. Local flooding. Roads closed. No power. Traffic lights out. Gas stations closed.

That’s why the evacuation order preceded the storm by a couple days. Once the storm hits - you’re done.

I decided to stay in the reinforced house where I am because supposedly it can withstand the high winds the worst of it is supposed to be early this morning the whole storm track just changed.
Oh say does that Star-Spangled Banner yet wave
Here is flag blowing in the wind.

 

[Slow Car Sport Mode]

Check back in when this is over and let us know how your fared. As others have said, the time to evacuate is before the storm, not during it.

I decided to park my car in the church parking lot so a power line doesn't fall on it and at this point I just got my fingers crossed because it's about a 10-minute jog to get to it.

I'm not going out anytime past when it gets bad because it'll be like the opening scene in the movie Twister if I do.

 

[spasm3]

I decided to park my car in the church parking lot so a power line doesn't fall on it and at this point I just got my fingers crossed because it's about a 10-minute jog to get to it.

I'm not going out anytime past when it gets bad because it'll be like the opening scene in the movie Twister if I do.

Keep us updated, praying for your safety.

 

[alarmguy]

I decided to park my car in the church parking lot so a power line doesn't fall on it and at this point I just got my fingers crossed because it's about a 10-minute jog to get to it.

I'm not going out anytime past when it gets bad because it'll be like the opening scene in the movie Twister if I do.

If your in Tampa according to the NOAA your winds will peak just shy of 40 MPH way less than hurricane strength around 9:30 tonight with strong gusts into the 60 to 70 MPH range. Still a chance for some wind damage and power outages but you won’t have to run to your car
Now that the eyeball is over land it will quickly decelerate,
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapCli...-82.4593&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical

 

[Slow Car Sport Mode]

If your in Tampa according to the NHC your winds will peak just shy of 40 MPH around 9:30 tonight with gusts into the 60 to 70 MPH range.
Now that the eyeball is over land it will quickly decelerate,
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapCli...-82.4593&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical

Around there, yeah.

I literally spent the day time part of the day in Jacksonville because I thought I was going to wake up to 150 mph winds and a foot of water because I was watching the forecast for well like you said Tampa Bay and South Tampa and north of Sarasota.

A power line Transformer exploded and hit the ground probably about all I'm going to say 50 ft from where I was after I parked my car so I know that the weather is definitely getting real here.. my landlord assured me this how it was House was built very well with the reinforced walls of the storm windows so I think this is the safest place because it's the early morning hours that it's supposed to get real and the only thing I just hope that the Toyota pickup truck I parked next to doesn't get blown on top of my car. There's a lot of palm tree fronds down on the roads but I was looking for trees that could fall on my car and where I'm parked it will fall on the building behind my car before it falls on my car I'm just worried about that truck I hope it doesn't get blown over it does have a Leer cab on it.

Wake up when the sun comes up that's the weather when it comes down I plan on moving my car because I think the power line in my front yard is going to come down it looks flimsy and these trees are heavy and wet.

Remember I'm never going to give my exact location.

 

[alarmguy]

Around there, yeah.

I literally spent the day time part of the day in Jacksonville because I thought I was going to wake up to 150 mph winds and a foot of water because I was watching the forecast for well like you said Tampa Bay and South Tampa and north of Sarasota.

A power line Transformer exploded and hit the ground probably about all I'm going to say 50 ft from where I was after I parked my car so I know that the weather is definitely getting real here.. my landlord assured me this how it was House was built very well with the reinforced walls of the storm windows so I think this is the safest place because it's the early morning hours that it's supposed to get real and the only thing I just hope that the Toyota pickup truck I parked next to doesn't get blown on top of my car. There's a lot of palm tree fronds down on the roads but I was looking for trees that could fall on my car and where I'm parked it will fall on the building behind my car before it falls on my car I'm just worried about that truck I hope it doesn't get blown over it does have a Leer cab on it.

Wake up when the sun comes up that's the weather when it comes down I plan on moving my car because I think the power line in my front yard is going to come down it looks flimsy and these trees are heavy and wet.

Remember I'm never going to give my exact location.

Hey I’m not sure if I’m reading your post wrong or I yours.
I never implied the Hurricane was going to hit Tampa, anything I posted was from NOAA and the NHC.
In fact I posted at 5 PM on Tuesday that it’s looking like the hurricane is going to hit Fort Myers which was just about right on target 20 hours later.
Maximum winds call for Tampa tonight are 40 miles an hour with higher gusts. This is not hurricane force.

My post from last night
Post in thread 'Hurricane Ian aims at Tampa in latest model run'
https://bobistheoilguy.com/forums/threads/hurricane-ian-aims-at-tampa-in-latest-model-run.360158/post-624607

 

[wrcsixeight]

Stormchasers in Punta Gorda, are at this moment reporting far worse conditions in western eyewall than they experienced in eastern eyewall.

 

[jhs914]

Around there, yeah.

I literally spent the day time part of the day in Jacksonville because I thought I was going to wake up to 150 mph winds and a foot of water because I was watching the forecast for well like you said Tampa Bay and South Tampa and north of Sarasota.

A power line Transformer exploded and hit the ground probably about all I'm going to say 50 ft from where I was after I parked my car so I know that the weather is definitely getting real here.. my landlord assured me this how it was House was built very well with the reinforced walls of the storm windows so I think this is the safest place because it's the early morning hours that it's supposed to get real and the only thing I just hope that the Toyota pickup truck I parked next to doesn't get blown on top of my car. There's a lot of palm tree fronds down on the roads but I was looking for trees that could fall on my car and where I'm parked it will fall on the building behind my car before it falls on my car I'm just worried about that truck I hope it doesn't get blown over it does have a Leer cab on it.

Wake up when the sun comes up that's the weather when it comes down I plan on moving my car because I think the power line in my front yard is going to come down it looks flimsy and these trees are heavy and wet.

Remember I'm never going to give my exact location.

If out and about after the storm be aware of those downed power lines. They could be live and dangerous.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Pictures coming out of Fort Myers beach of storm surge up to the roof line of some houses, or up to the 2nd floor balcony in some hotel / condo. High tide is 6:45 ish I believe. Looks really, really bad.

 

[wlk]

Stormchasers in Punta Gorda, are at this moment reporting far worse conditions in western eyewall than they experienced in eastern eyewall.

Where my mom's been all day and still has a bit to go. She called not too long ago and said it's been horrible. They missed the flooding so far but unfortunately for Ft. Myers and Cape Coral areas they have not. Storm needs to speed up and move across the state.

 

[jhs914]

edit

 

[wrcsixeight]

My parents are ~80 miles North of where the eye made landfall. 11 feet above sea level, 200 yards inland of Intercoastal waterway.

Lost power before conditions even got bad., suspected FPL shut him down as he was on the edge of mandatory evac zone.

Dad's got a honda 3000 generator, recently warmed up some food in the air frier.
No internet/ cable landline phone.
spotty texts get through.
Says trees with now northern component winds, are now hitting overhead High voltage powerlines and giant sparks flying overhead. estimates gusts at 65 to 80mph.

Said he was ready for it to be over 6 hours ago.

 

[Jackson_Slugger]

I think you need to look at the forecast 20 to 24 hours ago, (when this thread was started) then look at last night and todays forecast. IF todays forecast holds true, Tampa will see Tropical force winds not CAT 3 winds. (read the title of the OP concern) Typical of the media, when the information the media uses National Hurricane Center wasnt even saying what the media was reporting.
You need to go to the source and skip the media ... they will say and do anything to keep you tuned in. Yesterday everyone in Tampa thought a CAT 3 was going to slam them, Tampa Bay Seawater was going to swallow up their homes and IF todays Nation Hurricane Center forecast proves true Tampa may not even see hurricane force winds.

If you go to the "source", you are still consuming media. The internet IS media. Yes places like CNN, Fox, MSNBC, CNBC dress things up unnecessarily but I only cursively watch any of those and try to get info from written media, as imperfect as any of it is. But you've said some clearly bogus things in this thread overall and Ian was Cat 4 when it hit the coast (my brother is nearly at ground level zero) so the media was legitimately covering a story of interest and not "Batboy"! And they pretty much got it correct. But yes, I can live without the reporter doing a standup shot in 100mph winds nearly blown sideways...

Ps I dont live at the SC coast, a hurricane would not effect me. High and dry over 100 feet above sea level.
This WILL be a complete and utter disaster for the Fort Myers area (over 100 miles away from Tampa, hurricane force winds only extend 40 miles) IF the hurricane makes landfall as predicted. But the longer it stays at sea the weaker it would get if the shear picks up as expected.
Worse for people not in the hurricane area will be rain water flooding, I got a bad feeling for the Fort Myers area.

Actually you'll probably get some rain or even downpours, like we often do in WNY/NE PA. But your state does get battered by hurricanes from time to time and your northern neighbor even has a hockey team named after them in the most egregious major sports theme in the last 50 years...