How close are we to an economic slowdown?

[CivicFan]

Dow hit 13,000 yesterday so I was happy about my funds going up. But at night on my way home, I started noticing something strange. Every single office building had large signs for office space for lease. That's a worrying sign. But right there, two office buildings were built last year and one of them is already occupied. The other one is almost done. And there are two more buildings going up as well.

So I don't know whether there is a slowdown in demand, or an office space bubble in the area.

 

[Pablo]

We are due to slow down....but really we we are in a sweet spot. Decent employment numbers, inflation in check. The real lurker remains: DEBT. (as usual)

 

[Kestas]

The sorry side to this rise in the Dow is that it comes mostly from overseas operations. Stock holders are now reaping the benefits of offshore manufacturing. If you're a regular working stiff with little investment, you're out of luck.

 

[keith]

There will be a slowdown eventually. There's always something to be miserable about, if you look hard enough.

 

[Drew99GT]

Looking at vacant office space in one little part of the country isn't gonna tell you much. Commercial real estate as I've read, is still doing great (so is my real estate fund). Heck, they're building a huge new office condo building in my office complex. Guess it depends on which part of the country you're in.

 

[brianl703]

I'm more concerned about vacant residental real estate. Where I live there have already been several foreclosures on my street with more coming.

In fact, when I went to get my mail yesterday, one house had a sign in the window which says "WINTERIZED". This is done when a house is vacant--so that if the heat isn't on the pipes won't freeze. There is also a lockbox on the door and a letter from the city to the owner taped to the door. Sounds like a possible foreclosure to me, perhaps the owner just got up and left--it was purchased last summer.

The house right next door has an eviction notice on the door.

I started to wonder if I'm the only person on my street who pays their bills...

 

[Drew99GT]

Regular working stiffs can benefit too; I'm a prime example. It's what one chooses to do with their money. Instead of having a nice new car with a huge car loan, all new furniture, nice nifty surround sound system, etc. etc. etc., I choose to max out my IRA every year and even save a little more. I'd rather be able to enjoy a comfortable retirement than have all kinds of nifty new consumer goodies now. Every working person can put away 4K every year if they try hard enough and compromise.

 

[oilyriser]

Calculate the Dow index in ounces of gold instead of US dollars.

 

[LTVibe]

Quote:

---

But here is a clue: Something like 50 percent of all stock is owned by the top 1 percent of Americans in terms of wealth. The top ten per cent own nearly ninety per cent of stock.

---

CBS Article

If the above is true, then the performance of the stock market does not reflect the economic health of millions of average people.

 

[Pablo]

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

But here is a clue: Something like 50 percent of all stock is owned by the top 1 percent of Americans in terms of wealth. The top ten per cent own nearly ninety per cent of stock.

---

CBS Article

If the above is true, then the performance of the stock market does not reflect the economic health of millions of average people.

---

That's pretty much a political hit piece article. Gotta hate those "rich" people you know. Bunker Snod. It may not tell you much about the state of Fat T. Beerdrinker, but it does tell you there remains a faith in the fixed system.

What those kind of stats also tell me is that "rich" people know what to do with their money. And rather than be another angry poor white dude, I started doing what "they" are doing awhile ago. And it's growing. I'm not gonna sit around and wait for "them" to be taxed so I can sit on my pimply arse.

The economy cycles. But aside from a couple dips, we've been bullish since the 1980's.

 

[CivicFan]

It could be true about the privately held stocks. But remember that a large portion of stocks are owned by institutions such as mutual funds or retirement plans. Right now I don't own individual stocks so I would not be counted as a stock owner. But my money is tied in mutual funds who own stock as part of their portfolio.

The rich obviously get richer - the more capital you have, the faster it grows in dollar terms even if we all get similar percentage growth. And they have more resources to shift their wealth around to adapt to the changes while the poorer classes, if they have any money invested, usually put all their faith on the management of their funds.

There is nothing to be hateful about - that's how the world is and has always been. At least we don't have a monarchy.

 

[Shannow]

Quote:

---

We are due to slow down....but really we we are in a sweet spot. Decent employment numbers, inflation in check. The real lurker remains: DEBT. (as usual)

---

Exactly the same down here.

Unemployment low, official inflation figures low, personal debt higher than it was, even during the depression.

People losing homes faster than they ever had.

 

[oilyriser]

The economy is dependent on energy from oil. Reduce the supply of oil, and the machine will slow.

 

[cousincletus]

We're still seeing an artifically high real estate market here. Less than 5 years ago a house that sold for about 150K down the road just sold for 235K. They were asking 285K.

 

[Gary Allan]

Debt masks our slow down. We aren't running out of credit like we used to. The prices just keep going lower and the trade imbalance never rights itself with a recession. There, you viability was mandated to continue the exchange. You go broke. They go broke.

Now it appears painless. You export U$ and import cheap goods and poverty. It's a "forced feeding" type thing.


I like how inflation is kept in check with funny money.

 

[obbop]

Can't resist. Should just keep "mouth shut" (fingers shut?)

Have to add but one thing.

Opinion.

Mass media owned by wealthy elites determined to maintain status quo. I do not rely upon what I believe to mainly be a propaganda dissemination device to relay a reality so many Americans experience.

We now return you to the latest breaking so-important news about the latest celebrity.

 

[oilyriser]

The inflation rate for people who spend most of their money on food and rent is probably much higher than for the rest, since food and housing have gone up in price. The rest of us are happy that plasma TV's and computers keep getting cheaper.