Housing inventory by state

[GON]

Interseting chart.

Florida, Texas, and California top the inventory chart. Of course, for the chart to be more accurate, one could divide the inventory by the states population, and see housing on the market per state resident.

I suspect the issue with Florida is that Florida is no longer " a lower cost deal". For decades one could sell their home in the NorthEast, and Upper Midwest, and buy a home in Florida and bank the difference. Florida no longer appears to offer that cost savings- arbitrage. Same would go for insurance, taxes, etc in Florida. Has Florida lost some of its competitive advantage when it comes to single family home prices and overall cost of living? One can't ever discount sunshine and warm weather.

 

[skyactiv]

I wonder why Texas is so high?

 

[GON]

I wonder why Texas is so high?

Good question.

Huge state, massive amount of single family home new construction? Covid moves from California and the such no longer in play to absorb some of the new home construction? Speculation the barriers to build a new subdivision in Texas significantly less than a state like California?

 

[Zee09]

Florida realtors are stuck in the cv19 world of never ending cash....
Oblivious to what's going on around them... conviently of course

 

[GON]

The state that alarms me is the state we currently have a single family home in- New Mexico.

Although the state is large by square miles, the state has a low population. Why does New Mexico have so many homes for sale? I suspect two factors (1) crime is off the charts and has been in many parts of New Mexico, (2) state income taxes are high, hard to attract retirees with a high state income tax.

Of course, all real estate is local. The next door neighboor's house went up for sale last month. The home went under contract in under a week. Seller is a divorced male with a dog he doesn't clean up after. House is nice, but not exceptionally nice. Home not overally clean. Still went under contract shortly after being listed.

 

[Hirev]

Is this just houses or does it include condos? In places like East Florida many people are trying to unload older condos.

 

[GON]

Is this just houses or does it include condos? In places like East Florida many people are trying to unload older condos.

I don't know for sure, but believe all homes that are listed in a state, to include single family homes, townhomes, and condos.

 

[nickaluch]

Real estate is so local it's hard to go by state. I'm on Long Island NY downstate can't compare the market against upstate NY. I'm guessing it's the same in most states

 

[BHopkins]

I wonder why Texas is so high?

Is Texas still a heavy "move to" state? If yes, perhaps contractors are building huge amounts of homes to fill the market demand. And it seems to make sense that homes on the market for new move-ins would inflate the overall homes for sale in Texas. IDK. Just speculating.

 

[edyvw]

The Florida bubble is busted, because of several issues:
1. Real estate insurance. Although hurricanes contribute to it, the really big issue is anarchy, and the State has never attempted to regulate various loopholes. Current premiums are driven by a roofing scam that was ongoing for several years while the governor was arguing with Disney (both parties called him to address that during the Disney thing, and he never did).
2. I call this "social media" trend. People find it "more appealing" to live in other states based on the "information" they get online. However, information online is rarely objective bcs. algorithms and always feeds you what you want to read. Many people realized that "dream state" has its drawbacks, and a lot of them. But this is not nearly as big deal as cost of living, which is primarily driven by insurance premiums.

 

[GON]

Very easy to build in Texas. Tons of flat open land..pro building/development governments. Ample construction labors.

 

[GMFan]

Spec homes built to the cheapest standards on a 30 year inflated note. Sure they look good. Everyone thinks they’re great until they’ve lived in one for 20 years once the water starts coming in and the construction defects rear their ugly head and buried code violations are discovered. Builder will be bankrupt by then and will have zero liability after the next bubble or crash and retired on a beach. Workers will have moved on. Lawyers will bilk the money over the defects. The banks and realtors will keep stacking their money each time they sell making more money each time than the sap who swung the hammer told by the boss man to cut every corner. Contractors will keep padding the bill for the repairs. TikTokers will drone on about how real estate will make you rich. The wheel in the sky will keep on turning. The American dream.

 

[ka9mnx]

Unable to even get home insurance and the threat of Hurricanes is driving people out of Florida. Insurance companies are fleeing the state.

 

[SC Maintenance]

The best way to correlate this - IMHO - is inflows / outflows of people. For example - the map from here. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-net-migration-between-states-in-2023/

So in reference to above:

I wonder why Texas is so high?

131K people moved there in 2023. They were likely expecting it to continue.

Why does New Mexico have so many homes for sale?

My guess - because according to the above 244K people left in 2023. That is a ton of people leaving a relatively small state. Lots of vacancy is my guess?

Is this just houses or does it include condos? In places like East Florida many people are trying to unload older condos.

This is an excellent question. I fart around with lots of data. Housing data is the worst. Some data sets include condo's, some don't. Some include new construction, some don't. Often builders will have completed homes and just not list them - to give the impression of scarcity.

 

[GON]

My guess - because according to the above 244K people left in 2023. That is a ton of people leaving a relatively small state. Lots of vacancy is my guess?

Please take a second look at the chart you posted. According to the chart, New Mexico had a net loss of 244 people in 2023, not 224,000 people.

With mild climate and very affordable housing, New Mexico could be a boon state for retirees. The very high crime rates, along with extremely high state income tax, may be what prevents New Mexico from attarcting more retirees than it does. It my neighboorhood, vast majority of residents are active duty airforce, or retirees. Our subdivisions continues to have new homes constructed. Our subdivision likely does not holistically reflect NM housing trends.

 

[GON]

This article suggets one reason why Texas may have more homes on the market than expected, I think the article's thesis could very easily apply to Florida:

Airbnb owners get nasty shock after driving up property prices in pretty Texas coast town​

Homeowners have realized they are unable to make a quick buck by renting out vacation property in a stunning coastal Texas town because they have flooded the housing market.

Buyers snapped up houses in Galveston during the pandemic with the hopes of being able to convert the properties into short-term rentals.

During that time, the number of registered short-term rentals in Galveston more than doubled, with 2,300 listed in 2021 to 4,900 two years later.

However, now many of those who purchased homes on the picturesque island have come to realize that it is actually a competitive, expensive and labor-intensive field.

Climbing insurance costs, increased taxes and struggles to get bookings have led many owners to sell, according to the Houston Chronicle.

The surge of listings have turned Galveston into a buyer's market, and many people are seeing their houses sit for months.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-es...-raising-property-prices-galveston-texas.html

 

[SC Maintenance]

Please take a second look at the chart you posted. According to the chart, New Mexico had a net loss of 244 people in 2023, not 224,000 people.

Well so much for my theory. No idea why NM has so many then. I wonder where they all are? There are only a few population centers in NM

Airbnb owners get nasty shock after driving up property prices in pretty Texas coast town

There was big talk about "Air B n Bust", but it has quietened down since. Could still be the reason, but if these owners are in such stress you would think it would have started by now?

I do think they have over-built in Texas and Florida. The question of course is it everywhere, or only certain parts - like retirement hot spots?

 

[demarpaint]

Real estate is so local it's hard to go by state. I'm on Long Island NY downstate can't compare the market against upstate NY. I'm guessing it's the same in most states

Good point. I'm in Nassau county as well, one thing for sure is the real estate prices are strong, and have been for a long time. People want easy access to NYC for high paying jobs, and we have that. From me Penn Station is 33 minutes on an express train.

 

[GON]

Good point. I'm in Nassau county as well, one thing for sure is the real estate prices are strong, and have been for a long time. People want easy access to NYC for high paying jobs, and we have that. From me Penn Station is 33 minutes on an express train.

My research, homes without flaws go under contract soon after listing. I don't care what state. Is there a former air BNB without flaws, likely not so much. So all those Florida homes quite possibly flawed homes that were impulse buys, air bmb properties, etc.

Wife found a needle in a haystack home, a waterfront home in Wyoming for under 1 million USD. She is pressing me to agree to buy the home (I am currently working in Asia). Home was 685k, no down to 618k.

Can't understand why the home isn't under contract. But I have been studying the pictures and discovered the listing agent is a master photographer.

Home is waterfront, yet if the pictures are studied, one discovers the deck is at a point to the waterfront. One has to study the pictures to figure this out. Huge flag to have a deck at a point, rather than horizontal, to the water.

Studying the front of the house, the gutters are funky. But while studying the funky gutters, just across the water is what looks like a bunch of law enforcement vehicles. At a minimum, most LE agencies require siren tests every shift change. Can you imagine the sirens going off every eight hours, seven days a week, 365 days a year.

Why no basement? Might be a good reason, but I suspect simply as a cost savings. If accurate, equates to a lot of cost savings in the home, yet home has great fixtures and matching decorating.

Wife has now engaged my adult daughter to press me to agree to buy the home. How many people bought homes in Florida and Texas post covid and two percent interest without due diligence? And no reality sets in and they put their flawed home on the market?

 

[GON]

Well so much for my theory. No idea why NM has so many then. I wonder where they all are? There are only a few population centers in NM.

My guess is many of the homes listed for sale in New Mexico are deeply flawed. With high crime in most of the state, and a brutally high state income tax, not a lot of people searching for deeply flawed homes.

Funny, if New Mexico eliminated it's state income tax, New Mexico would be the number one growth state for retirees from outside of New Mexico. Miles weather, very affordable housing, a retired person great fit. But I suspect a shift in demographic result in a shift in who gets elected.

New Mexico has tons of opportunities to replace income from oil, minerals, etc to replace the income from state income taxes.