High maintenance costs and lack of fuel strands hydrogen busses

[alarmguy]

Hydrogen generally sucks. Battery EV makes way more sense overall IMO.

I don’t disagree at this point, who can?
I’m just wondering what the future is and what technology will surpass that of a gasoline vehicle for the 300 million cars on the road

I think that during the lifetime of everyone in this forum, it will simply be a mix of majority gasoline and minority battery electric. But we just don’t know how electric will hold up once our government stops giving up to $11,000 per vehicle to purchase them.

As far as hydrogen, at this time, it’s definitely a specialty application used by big corporations,. Will technology advance enough to make H2 electric or internal combustion economical for the majority. I don’t know and I probably never will.

 

[alarmguy]

As always, the devil is in the details.

EV buses with overhead power lines have been around in San Francisco for .... nearly 100 years now? The problem is always the battery and the reputation of the manufacturers building it. I will never believe a startup building a car more reliable than a Corolla for sure, but if a mature bus manufacturer build it I think the chances of success is high.

In my school district we have been running EV buses for a while, it is working very reliably. The problem is you can't just expect it to be like a diesel bus that has been proven in all climates.

When the time comes an analysis will have to be done on what is cheaper to run. Diesel buses, or electric. After all, it’s the taxpayer paying the cost not a homeowner. I do realize in California the cost voters don’t care about, but that isn’t the rest of the nation.

 

[ripcord]

When the time comes an analysis will have to be done on what is cheaper to run. Diesel buses, or electric. After all, it’s the taxpayer paying the cost not a homeowner. I do realize in California the cost voters don’t care about, but that isn’t the rest of the nation.

You can't put a price on Muver Erf

 

[JeffKeryk]

I think that during the lifetime of everyone in this forum, it will simply be a mix of majority gasoline and minority battery electric. But we just don’t know how electric will hold up once our government stops giving up to $11,000 per vehicle to purchase them.

AG, I 100% agree a mix of drivetrain options is the way to go; there is simply no one size fits all. An EV powered by solar energy works for me, but that is due in large part to where I live. And my Tundra, while it sucks the gas, will almost certainly never be replaced by an electric PU. I flat-out love our '01 Tundra.

The tax credit will be telling. Some companies will be able to lower prices and still be profitable, but most will not. That's huge leverage. I foresee lower priced EVs to attract more market from ICE. The EV market continues to evolve.

 

[ripcord]

AG, I 100% agree a mix of drivetrain options is the way to go; there is simply no one size fits all. An EV powered by solar energy works for me, but that is due in large part to where I live. And my Tundra, while it sucks the gas, will almost certainly never be replaced by an electric PU. I flat-out love our '01 Tundra.

The tax credit will be telling. Some companies will be able to lower prices and still be profitable, but most will not. That's huge leverage. I foresee lower priced EVs to attract more market from ICE. The EV market continues to evolve.

In terms of the EV market, the big, big, big elephant in the room is whether or not cheap Chinese EV's will be allowed into Western markets.

 

[dogememe]

I looked at a random local route for a bus in Napa, CA and calculated if we use the same bus to go back and forth all day (I'm not sure if that's how the route actually is, I'm just keeping it simple) it will travel about 200 miles.

Apparently an electric transit bus averages about 0.5mi/kwh. At $0.30/kwh it costs $120 to make an electric bus go 200 miles.
Apparently a diesel transit bus gets about 5MPG. At $5/gallon it costs $200 to make a diesel bus go 200 miles.

If that route runs 6 days a week, that's 312 days in a year. Since they're saving $80/day, that's $24,960 in fuel savings per bus per year.
I don't really know much about maintenance and repairs on a bus, but an electric bus doesn't need oil changes and brakes will last a lot longer. Can we say that's $5K per year worth of maintenance reduction?

Round that out to $30K/year per bus saved by going electric. If a bus lasts 10 years, that's a $300K reduction in fuel and maintenance.

Apparently an electric bus costs $250K more than a diesel bus. Apparently a 50kw DC fast charger costs about $30K.

This means we have $20K of cost savings over a 10 year period on one bus. I count 13 local routes on Napa Vine Transit's website. Let's say they have 2 extra buses as spares. That's 15 buses. So we save $300K every 10 years, assuming current electric bus prices. With economies of scale, it's likely that eventually, the cost of an electric bus will go down, leading to more savings.

But, even if there is NO cost savings, and an electric bus and diesel bus cost exactly the same across its lifespan, an electric bus has other major benefits. It's significantly quieter and it is zero emissions. Yes, there may be emissions somewhere else (although nuclear kinda solves that, but that's a whole different debate), but those emissions are far away, not in our city. So it's overall healthier for the people near or riding the bus.

 

[JeffKeryk]

In terms of the EV market, the big, big, big elephant in the room is whether or not cheap Chinese EV's will be allowed into Western markets.

China looms large... And it ain't just EVs.

 

[ripcord]

I looked at a random local route for a bus in Napa, CA and calculated if we use the same bus to go back and forth all day (I'm not sure if that's how the route actually is, I'm just keeping it simple) it will travel about 200 miles.

Apparently an electric transit bus averages about 0.5mi/kwh. At $0.30/kwh it costs $120 to make an electric bus go 200 miles.
Apparently a diesel transit bus gets about 5MPG. At $5/gallon it costs $200 to make a diesel bus go 200 miles.

If that route runs 6 days a week, that's 312 days in a year. Since they're saving $80/day, that's $24,960 in fuel savings per bus per year.
I don't really know much about maintenance and repairs on a bus, but an electric bus doesn't need oil changes and brakes will last a lot longer. Can we say that's $5K per year worth of maintenance reduction?

Round that out to $30K/year per bus saved by going electric. If a bus lasts 10 years, that's a $300K reduction in fuel and maintenance.

Apparently an electric bus costs $250K more than a diesel bus. Apparently a 50kw DC fast charger costs about $30K.

This means we have $20K of cost savings over a 10 year period on one bus. I count 13 local routes on Napa Vine Transit's website. Let's say they have 2 extra buses as spares. That's 15 buses. So we save $300K every 10 years, assuming current electric bus prices. With economies of scale, it's likely that eventually, the cost of an electric bus will go down, leading to more savings.

But, even if there is NO cost savings, and an electric bus and diesel bus cost exactly the same across its lifespan, an electric bus has other major benefits. It's significantly quieter and it is zero emissions. Yes, there may be emissions somewhere else (although nuclear kinda solves that, but that's a whole different debate), but those emissions are far away, not in our city. So it's overall healthier for the people near or riding the bus.

Some problems with your calculus that I see is that there is a high probability that the life span of those electric buses will be significantly shorter than projected. Also, the cost of electricity in California is probably going to rise a faster than the cost of diesel as California is messing up it's electrical grid... And before anybody says "solar," those buses have to be in the road when the sun is shining.

Plus, there is no such thing as zero emissions.

 

[MVAR]

Some problems with your calculus that I see is that there is a high probability that the life span of those electric buses will be significantly shorter than projected. Also, the cost of electricity in California is probably going to rise a faster than the cost of diesel as California is messing up it's electrical grid... And before anybody says "solar," those buses have to be in the road when the sun is shining.

Plus, there is no such thing as zero emissions.

My local school district has converted an old elementary school behind my house to their EV bus charging station (even though we voted for a sports complex for the kids & received EV buses & charging station). Buses were new around 2018-19. Nearly 1/2 of the fleet is already inoperable & they’re parking the NG fueled buses in the EV lot to keep it full.

Also, the electric rates from PG&E for EV fleet usage >100kW/h & distribution level voltage ranges from $0.20-$0.40/kWh plus additional charges per meter & block usage limits with large penalties for overage but block minimums.

I haven’t dug into the on/off peak times for large fleet usage but the hours are likely different from residential customers due to wholesale spot or locational marginal pricing (LMP). These buses are pulled from the chargers around 0530-0600 to begin their morning inspections & routes. Not sure when they return.

CA wholesale transmission pricing generally begins to ramp up in pricing between HE17-HE19 & HE06-HE08. So prices are lower during daytime hours due to the excess generation (and required spinning reserves for the IBR’s) or when the buses are working & not charging.

As an aside, NERC issued a Level 3 NERC Alert for IBR’s (Inverter Based Resources) just yesterday. Besides EV’s there’s still very large issues with these technologies that Main Street media outlets aren’t going to cover or have the understanding to interpret.

 

[nobb]

It really doesn't make sense to build out hydrogen infrastructure for these commercial applications when Chinese EV buses and trucks already exist in a fairly mature and developed manner. It's already proven technology used even in extreme cold (Kazakhstan) or heat (Saudi Arabia).

 

[PandaBear]

When the time comes an analysis will have to be done on what is cheaper to run. Diesel buses, or electric. After all, it’s the taxpayer paying the cost not a homeowner. I do realize in California the cost voters don’t care about, but that isn’t the rest of the nation.

Yes.

In our district that's the size of around 4 x 6 miles, and solar panel on school parking lot, the cost is actually quite low. We can't say it would be cost effective for other districts in Sierra Nevada like those districts can't say for us.

 

[PandaBear]

I looked at a random local route for a bus in Napa, CA and calculated if we use the same bus to go back and forth all day (I'm not sure if that's how the route actually is, I'm just keeping it simple) it will travel about 200 miles.

Apparently an electric transit bus averages about 0.5mi/kwh. At $0.30/kwh it costs $120 to make an electric bus go 200 miles.
Apparently a diesel transit bus gets about 5MPG. At $5/gallon it costs $200 to make a diesel bus go 200 miles.

If that route runs 6 days a week, that's 312 days in a year. Since they're saving $80/day, that's $24,960 in fuel savings per bus per year.
I don't really know much about maintenance and repairs on a bus, but an electric bus doesn't need oil changes and brakes will last a lot longer. Can we say that's $5K per year worth of maintenance reduction?

Round that out to $30K/year per bus saved by going electric. If a bus lasts 10 years, that's a $300K reduction in fuel and maintenance.

Apparently an electric bus costs $250K more than a diesel bus. Apparently a 50kw DC fast charger costs about $30K.

This means we have $20K of cost savings over a 10 year period on one bus. I count 13 local routes on Napa Vine Transit's website. Let's say they have 2 extra buses as spares. That's 15 buses. So we save $300K every 10 years, assuming current electric bus prices. With economies of scale, it's likely that eventually, the cost of an electric bus will go down, leading to more savings.

But, even if there is NO cost savings, and an electric bus and diesel bus cost exactly the same across its lifespan, an electric bus has other major benefits. It's significantly quieter and it is zero emissions. Yes, there may be emissions somewhere else (although nuclear kinda solves that, but that's a whole different debate), but those emissions are far away, not in our city. So it's overall healthier for the people near or riding the bus.

I forgot where I read but the typical or most inner city bus route is about 10 miles and goes on average 10 miles / hour (including stop and go, loading unloading). Don't forget bus don't always leave right after reaching terminal, some sit for 30 mins during off peak traffic and some just head back to the yard in between rush hours.

Regarding to cost: it is a matter of economy of scale. You can't say what something cost outside of raw material and unit labor that one will cost more than the other before reaching scale.

As to electricity cost: in commercial scale you can't use residential scale to calculate, and they can also have regulation that charges extra for diesel emission in certain area (of high pollution), or cheap diesel because there is a refinery next door. We've seen overhead wire powered electric bus for decades, I wonder why can't we go to that for most bus needs because we do have light rail and electrified trains that are great and cost effective, without battery, for local municipal buses.

 

[alarmguy]

...

The tax credit will be telling. Some companies will be able to lower prices and still be profitable, but most will not. That's huge leverage. I foresee lower priced EVs to attract more market from ICE. The EV market continues to evolve.

It looks like it's a done deal.
The EV tax credit to expire in Dec 2025
The budget bill passed the house, in that bill it eliminates the credit.
I can assume it will stay intact in the Senate. Time will tell.

"The 389-page bill text includes provisions to kill the federal EV tax credit and other clean energy credits"
Reported in Kiplinger.com and electrik.co - Im not supplying the link since possibly might bring politics by some in here but you can search on it on your own.

 

[JeffKeryk]

It looks like it's a done deal.
The EV tax credit to expire in Dec 2025
The budget bill passed the house, in that bill it eliminates the credit.
I can assume it will stay intact in the Senate. Time will tell.

"The 389-page bill text includes provisions to kill the federal EV tax credit and other clean energy credits"
Reported in Kiplinger.com Im not supplying the link since it brings politics. One can do the search.

You can make a case for subsidies to introduce new products, tech, etc.
But they should have expiration dates. Now if we could just end the biggies...
I've been in favor of reducing or eliminating EV subsidies for sometime.

Full disclosure, I benefited from the tax credit in 2018; it played a part in the decision to buy.

 

[alarmguy]

You can make a case for subsidies to introduce new products, tech, etc.
But they should have expiration dates. Now if we could just end the biggies...
I've been in favor of reducing or eliminating EV subsidies for sometime.

Full disclosure, I benefited from the tax credit in 2018; it played a part in the decision to buy.

I suspect this is an indication of what is to come, (if this bill is passed) as to what happened to our northern neighbor.
https://motorillustrated.com/canadi...wing-end-of-federal-incentive-program/154387/

 

[nthach]

I looked at a random local route for a bus in Napa, CA and calculated if we use the same bus to go back and forth all day (I'm not sure if that's how the route actually is, I'm just keeping it simple) it will travel about 200 miles.

Apparently an electric transit bus averages about 0.5mi/kwh. At $0.30/kwh it costs $120 to make an electric bus go 200 miles.
Apparently a diesel transit bus gets about 5MPG. At $5/gallon it costs $200 to make a diesel bus go 200 miles.

If that route runs 6 days a week, that's 312 days in a year. Since they're saving $80/day, that's $24,960 in fuel savings per bus per year.
I don't really know much about maintenance and repairs on a bus, but an electric bus doesn't need oil changes and brakes will last a lot longer. Can we say that's $5K per year worth of maintenance reduction?

Round that out to $30K/year per bus saved by going electric. If a bus lasts 10 years, that's a $300K reduction in fuel and maintenance.

Apparently an electric bus costs $250K more than a diesel bus. Apparently a 50kw DC fast charger costs about $30K.

This means we have $20K of cost savings over a 10 year period on one bus. I count 13 local routes on Napa Vine Transit's website. Let's say they have 2 extra buses as spares. That's 15 buses. So we save $300K every 10 years, assuming current electric bus prices. With economies of scale, it's likely that eventually, the cost of an electric bus will go down, leading to more savings.

But, even if there is NO cost savings, and an electric bus and diesel bus cost exactly the same across its lifespan, an electric bus has other major benefits. It's significantly quieter and it is zero emissions. Yes, there may be emissions somewhere else (although nuclear kinda solves that, but that's a whole different debate), but those emissions are far away, not in our city. So it's overall healthier for the people near or riding the bus.

I always see a Vine bus break down on 80 between Vallejo and Del Norte BART.

But down the highway in Oakland, AC Transit is a big cheerleader for FCEVs. One of the first agencies to operate them as proof of concept. Their Emeryville and East Oakland yards have quite a few FCEVs and I always see them on busy routes(51B between Cal and Rockridge and the 51A that goes to Alameda, the 6/18/88 between Oakland and Berkeley). But reliability isn’t where it is. They also added a few BEV Gillig and New Flyers, I see the BEV buses in Downtown Oakland quite a bit.

Page 19 has more dollars and cents analysis here: https://actransit.legistar.com/View.ashx?M=F&ID=13043668&GUID=9DD959BB-CF05-4738-BF53-8219F18D7B30

 

[nthach]

It really doesn't make sense to build out hydrogen infrastructure for these commercial applications when Chinese EV buses and trucks already exist in a fairly mature and developed manner. It's already proven technology used even in extreme cold (Kazakhstan) or heat (Saudi Arabia).

LA Metro and Big Blue Bus in Santa Monica/Long Beach Transit aren’t going down the FCEV route. They have quite a few BYDs in their fleet(also doesn’t hurt they’re built just up the 5 in Lancaster). you’d think they would convert to FCEV given they already run CNG buses - LA by far has the biggest deployment of them.

 

[Kestas]

There's merit to these pilot programs. They run this technology in the real world and then assess the challenges and pains they had to face. But why did they have to commit with 169 buses? That seems like too much for an unproven technology.

 

[nobb]

you’d think they would convert to FCEV given they already run CNG buses - LA by far has the biggest deployment of them.

I'd be curious on this but I suspect it's not that simple to convert an existing CNG or combustion engine fleet to FCEV. Even though hydrogen combusts, there's the phenomenon of hydrogen induced cracking on materials due to the small molecules migrating into the metal and causing damage. This is also why you can't easily convert existing natural gas heating infrastructure to hydrogen.

Using a fuel cell and converting an existing electrified platform is probably more practical than something ICE based. Of which having a battery over a fuel cell is vastly more simple and serviceable already, so why would you.

 

[Brons2]

Let’s not forget that US taxpayers have directly paid two billion dollars to individuals and companies who bought electric vehicles in the USA.

Those are direct payments and do not include all the government incentives directly to corporations developing electric vehicle technology.

69,000,000 pounds is chump change and not even close to what the US taxpayer contributed to electric vehicle promotion indirect payments to the end user.
Electric vehicle sales are a failure in the United States.
The only way to prove they are not is to stop taxpayer funded direct payments to those who purchase them. It’s the most insane program in the history of this country, giving people free and clear $7500 to go out and buy an expensive car loaded with luxuries.

Two billion dollars given away does not include billions more in direct incentives to corporations
How can anybody call electric vehicles successful is beyond me.
Stop giving purchasers of vechicles $7500 to buy an electric vehicle or $4000 for a used one and then we all can have a discussion.

By the way, even though I replied to you, I am just generally discussing things. Please don’t take my post the wrong way.

Our Mach-E did not receive a federal tax subsidy, it's not eligible because it was assembled in Mexico.