the year 2030 is everywhere... doesn't matter what its about but it's always in 2030
Has enthusiasm for electric cars waned?
- Thread starter Inked
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Why? I don’t see any stress yet except auto makers have already signaled that they overestimated demand.
2024 should be a banner year for electric vehicle sales. After all people will be getting instant $7500 rebates at time of purchase, which possibly may even be used as a down payment.
In a country with so much of the population backwards on all types of loans, not having to put any money down at time of purchase should be a win-win for now
They overestimated demand while demand is falling for nearly every vehicle on the market and like you cited before that GM is doing well. They're probably the only manufacturer that have released new sub $30k vehicles. That can't be a coincidence. I see the new Trax and the Buick Envista were everywhere here overnight. Bolts are popping up more and more. Those are all reasonably priced for what they are. There's cars sitting on the lot everywhere right now and they're expensive ones. Nearly all EVs fall into that range and have additional drawbacks for some drivers. It's literally the worst case scenario. Market floods to cover demand, demand falls in the toilet, and interest rates kicks them when they're down.
I agree, but I think the person I was replying to did not agree, so I was trying to figure out the reasoning, but I might just be reading the post wrong
Actually, the 2030 date is more prevalent in Europe. Although there are intermediate goals that include 2030 in the USA, the California ban in ICE vehicle sales is 2035. Here’s more info on that.
I agree. Here is just one prediction. The number it predicts at year end is 1.4 million. It will be close. The tough part is it does not take into account any negative news about the potential degradation of old batteries and also the effects of changes in the administration, any impending recessions, etc. Sales need to continuously climb by over 5% yearly to hit the targets. Sales will have to approach 8 million electric vehicles PER YEAR by 2030.
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Depends on mfg to mfg. Take for example Tesla, in years past their msrp increases every time a rebate is available. With the POS credit this should mean they increase their prices on Jan 1s (at least thats their message on the Tesla website). However, with their need to capture marketshare and the state of consumer sentiment and spending, will they keep prices the same? If they keep prices steady, it will indeed be a banner year for the leader in EV, and the EV marketplce. If they decided to go with increasing prices, I feel that they might put the brakes on things.
The legacy OEMs have already called it quits, and alot of the landscape for those vehicles will remain the same. If you have a bad product or a product mfg outside of the requriements it will need to be supported by either trunk money for finances/cash deals and continue lease 2 buy deals.
Toyota is making bad decisions, and it shows in the numbers, how or if they can claw their way out will remain to be seen. They are sort of becoming a future Chrysler as they loose their headstart on drivetrain tech.
businessinsurance.com/article/20230901/STORY/912359607/Toyota’s-production-loss-due-to-glitch-could-cost-$356-million
Without knowing their assets, and income/revenue, this is a completely meaningless statistic.
If I said that I had a $20,000 AMEX bill - what would that mean?
For some guys, it would mean horribly over leveraged, and about to pay through the nose with interest because it is half their annual income.
For others, it means, “yeah, I booked the Park City ski in/out condo for the week, bought airline tickets for five of the kids and their spouses, but I’ll send AMEX a check when the bill is due, and I am going to have a great time on vacation”.
Good conversation-
Tesla has been cutting prices by the boat loads the last year and there is still the $7,500 gift from my paycheck being given away.
I dont see them cutting prices or raising prices. I know this is a twist maybe on your words, they are not capturing market share, they are trying to prevent losing the huge amount of market share that they are. Meaning they have the feet slammed on the brakes all year.
Profit margins in the USA in the toilet and what is left is only because of the stupid $7,500 and still losing market share by the boat loads. Let us not forget that Tesla has shelved a massive factory in Mexico for now, most likely not forever but the reason given was the global outlook.
No way have the legacy called it quits. They will continue to gain market share. All the legacies are doing is adjusting their plans now that they see this EV thing is not in anyway attractive to the masses in the way EVERYONE on earth almost thought it would be.
So what have the legacies done? Pair down what they are going to offer. Only makes sense, yet still the big guys will have many times the models on the market then Tesla can dream of.
AS per my other post, we do agree on much but not everything for sure. That is good. I think it's only common sense the $7,500 being given on the showroom floor will breathe in some light for now and boast sales. I cant wait to see the day of no more rebate.
BTW - I have nothing against Tesla, I just dont like their cars, the looks remind me of cars decades ago, all the way back to the AMC Pacer as an extreme, to the Mazda RX7 (which was a great car) Anyway, I just see them as compact cars, not for me. Its the god like status in the media, (though that has turned now of everything Tesla) I have no problem with that I guess if I liked anything about the company.
I also do not like that the only profit they get in the USA (unlike the legacy makers)is from my paycheck.
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And the business person would understand that credit is the ability to gain an asset using other people's money.
Now whether that is a smart or dumb decision is another issue.
That's my complaint. Musk slams and criticizes subsidies but I don't see Tesla declining them.
Q3 had a lot to do with factory change over to the Highland. Even with a huge Q4 the 1.8M will be tough; I doubt even the mighty Tesla can hit that number. What makes it even harder is Tesla reports deliveries, unlike other car companies who sell to middle men dealerships.
The market holds Tesla to lofty growth numbers. They are in rapid growth mode, but anything can happen in the short term. My guess is the numbers will be close, but no cigar.
Forecasts mean nothing more than a 10 day weather outlook. If forecasters were right they would be a on a yacht with Jeff Bezos.
Here is a balanced view, pick your poison. KEEP IN MIND this is global, USA is more affluent then most the world and more larger then many countries. I feel the ICE will remain the luxury road cruiser and the EV more of an economy car with the most popularity in more poor countries and small affluent countries.
Source = https://www.bcg.com/publications/2023/exploring-divergent-futures-of-ev-sales
Not to further this but I fall under the I think it's a dumb decision to use credit. I'd prefer to use none and any time I've put something on credit when I could have just used my bank card makes me feel funny. There's a lot of businesses who use credit. Some of them dig holes too when business falls off. It can be a slippery slope.
I don't use credit cards anymore. I used to lack self control with them when I was younger and I still like shiny things too much.
The EV market is such a mess with so many countries applying domestic subsidies along with import tariffs on cheaper EV in order to goose prices and protect domestic producers. A normally functioning market it is not so it's really difficult to make predictions with regards to degree of future growth as long as these market distortions exist. One thing for certain is that growth is constrained by prices. Prohibiting consumers from buying cheaper products will hurt growth and lead to unfounded claims that demand is dropping.
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Do you own a home? Our current homes could never have been purchased; they are now paid off and have delivered an incredible ROI. I live in a wonderful area and my costs to live here are minimal.
I acquired an appreciating asset using other people's money. Now, the cars in my list were all cash purchases; they are depreciating assets, with the possible exception of the Tundra.
For most of my career I worked for a multi billion dollar Silicon Valley High Tech. I worked hand-in-hand with corporate Finance; they considered me part of their team. I can tell you credit is leverage. Cash is king; you have to be able to use credit to grow, and you grow or you go.
Again, how you use that leverage is critical to success or failure.
I'll borrow money for that, I just don't like using credit cards. I just realized my comment about using revolving credit I never specified revolving credit.