Has enthusiasm for electric cars waned?

[alarmguy]

Even if one were to discount the inclusion of ICE only powered hybrids, the market share of EVs + PHEV's has increased from roughly 2% in Q4 2019 to 10% in Q3 2023. The line on the chart with the steepest upward trajectory was the pure EVs. It is difficult to accept the premise of this thread when confronted with data like this.

In deference to the OP, there will come a time when the adoption rate of EVs will slow here in the USA. There are vast areas and other use cases where they just don't make sense. We are a long way from reaching that point.

Thinking about this from a macroecconic standpoint, increased adoption of EVs will eventually place some downward pressure on both EV vehicle and gasoline prices. Lower EV prices will increase adoption rates; lower gasoline price will slow that rate. We are still a lomg way from that impact on gasoline prices. Nevertheless, it wouldn't surprise me to see sales of new EV + PHEV to exceed 25% market share by the end of 2025. That is an extremely convervative estimate on my part.

I think the point of this article and even the point on Wall Street itself.
I don’t think the trajectory you’re talking about is relevant. What Wall Street looks at is what’s happening quarter to quarter in the third quarter of 20 23 was not as robust as the first and second quarter.

It’s pointless to go back in history and compare numbers versus the expectations of what was supposed to take place today.
It’s easy to come out with a new product that nobody has, and show phenomenal sales growth numbers until the people who are going to buy those vehicles or already did buy them.

I think that was the point of this whole thread.
Here is an excerpt, to be clear Wall Street looks forward not what took place yesterday.

“A big loser​

Tesla sold 156,621 cars in Q3 and 493,513 cars in 2023 to date, both of which are more than for the same periods in 2022. However its market share has fallen from 62 percent to 50 percent as other brands begin to find their feet in terms of production. More importantly for the automaker, growing 26.3 percent year on year can only be seen as a big miss when the company repeatedly says it must grow at 50 percent year on year, something it also failed to do in 2022.

Tesla has engaged in multiple rounds of price cuts in the US and abroad this year, and its Model Y crossover remains a strong seller, but there are declines of between 3 and 66 percent for its other three offerings.”

Source = https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/1...t-share-as-ev-adoption-grows-and-prices-fall/

Even if we want to ignore this information from this one source, we cannot ignore the fact that multiple automobile manufacturers who spend tens and tens of millions of dollars in marketing research has started to determine the electric vehicle market may not be as robust as initially thought.

I believe it is this type of thinking, is reasonable to suggest possibly there is a leveling out of the electric vehicle market.

Do I or anyone thinks that means this is going to stop? absolutely not, but one can just read the words I posted above about Tesla themselves needing 50% growth.
One can also examine Toyota whose hybrid sales are through the roof, matching or surpassing electric vehicle sales from other companies. This was the company that just a few months ago was getting trashed for thinking out of the box and sticking with a multi prong automobile strategy.

 

[Astro_Guy]

I think the point of this article and even the point on Wall Street itself.
I don’t think the trajectory you’re talking about is relevant. What Wall Street looks at is what’s happening quarter to quarter in the third quarter of 20 23 was not as robust as the first and second quarter.

I am not sure what your point was, other than perhaps to bash Tesla. That is irrelevant. EV sales and market share are increasing and have a long way to go before meeting significant market resistance. If this technology doesn't work for you then don't buy it. It works for a large number of Americans, and your opinions don't change that. We are all entitled to our opinions; facts are what they are.

 

[JeffKeryk]

I am not sure what your point was, other than perhaps to bash Tesla. That is irrelevant. EV sales and market share are increasing and have a long way to go before meeting significant market resistance. If this technology doesn't work for you then don't buy it. It works for a large number of Americans, and your opinions don't change that. We are all entitled to our opinions; facts are what they are.

@alarmguy does not hate Tesla; he has his own view of stock market strategies and car market. We all do. FYI, his projections tend to be different from mine, so there's that. Then again, many are.

 

[alarmguy]

I am not sure what your point was, other than perhaps to bash Tesla. That is irrelevant. EV sales and market share are increasing and have a long way to go before meeting significant market resistance. If this technology doesn't work for you then don't buy it. It works for a large number of Americans, and your opinions don't change that. We are all entitled to our opinions; facts are what they are.

All I did was post facts and how was this bashing Tesla? I think maybe your opinion is getting in the way. I did not anywhere in my post use my own words negatively against Tesla. It's also your opinion that an EV is not for my family, where do you come up with that? I mean you're throwing out all kinds of stuff based on nothing.

The thread title is "Has enthusiasm for electric cars waned?"
One might make that assumption based on what plans car manufacturers have scaled back a bit and the inventory levels of EVs.
I stand by my post.

 

[alarmguy]

I know nothing about the VW ID 4 but dealers here are offering $5500 off sticker price for new 2023 models.
You would think that would be a steal because I’m assuming that car also qualifies for the 7500?

 

[proveitwithdata]

I know nothing about the VW ID 4 but dealers here are offering $5500 off sticker price for new 2023 models.
You would think that would be a steal because I’m assuming that car also qualifies for the 7500?

Depends on how they are structuring the deal. Some EV dealers like to make the lease credit their dealer contribution, others treat it separately.

In addition the vw would be a lease to qualify for the credit, so they can also inflated money factors to lessen the impact of a discount/credit.

 

[macarose]

It's a pricing issue.

GM & Ford decided to mark up their EVs to the sky (Bolt excepted)

Most of the others don't get the full benefit of the $7500 tax credit.

That leaves Tesla standing alone, and a swarm of other options that are incapable of building any real economies of scale to make EV production profitable.

If you own a garage and live in a temperate climate, an EV with a well-engineered thermal cooling system is an excellent choice. I still think a high mile Chevy Bolt is the best deal out there.

Or you can buy a nice Toyota and ignore the car market for another 15 to 20 years.

 

[Torrid]

It's a pricing issue.

GM & Ford decided to mark up their EVs to the sky (Bolt excepted)

Most of the others don't get the full benefit of the $7500 tax credit.

That leaves Tesla standing alone, and a swarm of other options that are incapable of building any real economies of scale to make EV production profitable.

If you own a garage and live in a temperate climate, an EV with a well-engineered thermal cooling system is an excellent choice. I still think a high mile Chevy Bolt is the best deal out there.

Or you can buy a nice Toyota and ignore the car market for another 15 to 20 years.

Home charging is a necessity. I'm in a cold climate and don't think that's a problem unless you're constantly driving 200 miles a day. Sure I'll use more battery in the cold, but I have heat in 2 minutes when it's 0 outside and I can do it while the garage is closed. I can't get that in a gas car. I have to leave it running as much as 15 minutes to get there unless I want to freeze my butt off to drive it to warm it up quicker.

Super expensive cars in general for regular cars is a bad idea. They're pricing themselves out. Whether it's by design to discredit EVs or they're thinking they're making a premium product, it's just driving away demand. The biggest issue is oversized heavy vehicles(emulating the BS love for trucks) which are more expensive to make and less efficient. I think when it comes to EVs there aren't many that aren't unnecessarily heavy and complicated options that are mainstream companies. The Bolt is one of them. The Model 3 is another. I can't think of any others with decent range under 4,000lbs.