Has enthusiasm for electric cars waned?

[UncleDave]

Does anyone think BEV's will stop being the fastest growing segment?

How are we defining "waning"? If the segment shrinks a few points, but is still the fastest growing segment is it "waning"?
Or is it waning if it stops being the fastest growing segment?

For sure few want the big threes marked up underperforming BEV's.
After all the mouth music about how easy it was going to be to build and make money on them they just haven't delivered in either arena.

 

[alarmguy]

The EV market is such a mess with so many countries applying domestic subsidies along with import tariffs on cheaper EV in order to goose prices and protect domestic producers. A normally functioning market it is not so it's really difficult to make predictions with regards to degree of future growth as long as these market distortions exist. One thing for certain is that growth is constrained by prices. Prohibiting consumers from buying cheaper products will hurt growth and lead to unfounded claims that demand is dropping.

I can agree, electric vehicle sales are not a normal functioning market and will never be until the US taxpayer stops giving money to people who buy an electric vehicle

Common sense if that does happen, electric vehicle companies will take a large hit in both sales and profit

 

[Rmay635703]

Without knowing their assets, and income/revenue, this is a completely meaningless statistic.

If I said that I had a $20,000 AMEX bill - what would that mean?

For some guys, it would mean horribly over leveraged, and about to pay through the nose with interest because it is half their annual income.

For others, it means, “yeah, I booked the Park City ski in/out condo for the week, bought airline tickets for five of the kids and their spouses, but I’ll send AMEX a check when the bill is due, and I am going to have a great time on vacation”.

Auto carrying loans is normal…

This isn’t loan debt so it’s not a case of leverage, AKA structural debt owed on materisl and other stuff .= bad

So Toyota is not only far in debt, it’s so bad the debt isn’t even for loans it’s delinquencies and “other”

If Toyo weren’t tied at the hip to the Japanese gov in a too big to fail situation they would have already been forced to restructure or perform sell offs/ buy downs.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

I can agree, electric vehicle sales are not a normal functioning market and will never be until the US taxpayer stops giving money to people who buy an electric vehicle

Common sense if that does happen, electric vehicle companies will take a large hit in both sales and profit

But would they if the import tariff were also lifted?

We still can't get the likes of the VW Amarok in imported into the US because of the 25% import tariff on European light trucks (aka Chicken Tax circa 1963)

https://www.volkswagen-vans.co.uk/en/new-vehicles/new-amarok.html

 

[alarmguy]

But would they if the import tariff were also lifted?

We still can't get the likes of the VW Amarok in imported into the US because of the 25% import tariff on European light trucks (aka Chicken Tax circa 1963)

https://www.volkswagen-vans.co.uk/en/new-vehicles/new-amarok.html

Well, I can’t comment on that or get into trade disputes between countries but I think it’s a valid statement to say it’s almost unheard of the taxpayers a contributing $7500 to people who want to buy a certain vehicle

But I get your point, I’m a free market person yet even with that said between countries, it’s not as clear cut

 

[PandaBear]

Prices will only go up $7500 not down once government (taxpayer) rebates end
You’re not going to see 50% of the population buying electric vehicles in 2030.
You have to remember some people like gasoline and the convenience

Electric vehicles are still in their honeymoon phase

The prius owners would disagree with you. They and other commodity hybrids are dirt cheap compare to their normal gas engine counterparts now (obviously everything went up in price due to inflation but not the hybrid premium). EV can be the same and is cheaper in some part of the world. Whether the electricity is cheaper than gas in your area is another story.

 

[JeffKeryk]

I can agree, electric vehicle sales are not a normal functioning market and will never be until the US taxpayer stops giving money to people who buy an electric vehicle

Common sense if that does happen, electric vehicle companies will take a large hit in both sales and profit

That's pure speculation. If an emerging product can improve mfg efficiency and maintain demand then they are likely to achieve continued success.

By the way, singling out EV subsidies and excluding others could be considered misleading analysis.
All good AG.

 

[Astro14]

Auto carrying loans is normal…

This isn’t loan debt so it’s not a case of leverage, AKA structural debt owed on materisl and other stuff .= bad

So Toyota is not only far in debt, it’s so bad the debt isn’t even for loans it’s delinquencies and “other”

If Toyo weren’t tied at the hip to the Japanese gov in a too big to fail situation they would have already been forced to restructure or perform sell offs/ buy downs.

What?

They're having a great year, their margins are good, they are still the world’s largest car maker, with a market cap around $250 billion.

Their earnings per share are good, sales volume strong.

You’re digging awfully deep to find a reason to criticize them, nobody else seems to share your opinion.

 

[normal username]

Anecdotal

Speaking with a bunch of people, EVs are about to exit their honeymoon phase. Instead of them being a replacement for combustion engine cars, they are starting to become more viewed as an 'alternative' car. Much like a vegan dish vs a traditional dish. Pleather vs genuine leather.

It's not a bad thing but it definitely is not a good thing for that segment.

 

[alarmguy]

That's pure speculation. If an emerging product can improve mfg efficiency and maintain demand then they are likely to achieve continued success.

By the way, singling out EV subsidies and excluding others could be considered misleading analysis.
All good AG.

Not misleading, people are buying vehicles knowing they are going to pay $7,500 less in income taxes. It's not singling out anything. Take that away and do you know of any other consumer item that goes up $7,500 and wont affect sales?
Tesla has been reducing prices by less than that to try to stop a surplus in inventory, their margins now at an all time low even with the rebate, if the rebate went away, how will they make up that additional $7,500 in savings to the customer?
To me it's just mathematics?
Demand will hit the skids I will suggest as its already on the week side.

I do think between both our statements there is much unknowns. I also think an EV will be an ideal second car for many families and that is a lot of cars. But with the uncertainty of the $7,500 tax credit it's only speculation once it goes away or if it never goes away. Neither one of us has any idea.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Not misleading, people are buying vehicles knowing they are going to pay $7,500 less in income taxes. It's not singling out anything. Take that away and do you know of any other consumer item that goes up $7,500 and wont affect sales?
Tesla has been reducing prices by less than that to try to stop a surplus in inventory, their margins now at an all time low even with the rebate, if the rebate went away, how will they make up that additional $7,500 in savings to the customer?
To me it's just mathematics?
Demand will hit the skids I will suggest as its already on the week side.

I do think between both our statements there is much unknowns. I also think an EV will be an ideal second car for many families and that is a lot of cars. But with the uncertainty of the $7,500 tax credit it's only speculation once it goes away or if it never goes away. Neither one of us has any idea.

I don't really follow the tax credit because I don't qualify. But I believe it will be halved starting next year.
Tesla's margins have been dropping but are still the envy of the industry. GM, VW, etc would kill for those margins.

Tesla is not the only company that qualifies for the EV tax credit. Tesla, Ford, Chrysler, Jeep, and General Motors are all big winners.
Beyond that, the big oil and business subsidies are already well documented.

 

[Vercingetorix]

Pretty ridiculous how the $7500 for electric cars gets singled out.

 

[Astro14]

Not to further this but I fall under the I think it's a dumb decision to use credit. I'd prefer to use none and any time I've put something on credit when I could have just used my bank card makes me feel funny. There's a lot of businesses who use credit. Some of them dig holes too when business falls off. It can be a slippery slope.

I don't use credit cards anymore. I used to lack self control with them when I was younger and I still like shiny things too much.

Which doesn’t mean it’s a bad idea for a business to borrow.

They’re not paying the interest rate that you do.

 

[Torrid]

Which doesn’t mean it’s a bad idea for a business to borrow.

They’re not paying the interest rate that you do.

It's not necessarily a bad idea for a regular person either especially if paid in full at the time or a good rate.. That said I just don't like doing it. I find that I naturally spend less if it comes directly out of my account.

 

[97prizm]

Does anyone think BEV's will stop being the fastest growing segment?

How are we defining "waning"? If the segment shrinks a few points, but is still the fastest growing segment is it "waning"?
Or is it waning if it stops being the fastest growing segment?

For sure few want the big threes marked up underperforming BEV's.
After all the mouth music about how easy it was going to be to build and make money on them they just haven't delivered in either arena.

Accordingly to a number of articles bev sales are slowing and hybrids are continuing to grow.

 

[UncleDave]

Accordingly to a number of articles bev sales are slowing and hybrids are continuing to grow.

They could slow substantially and still be the fastest growing segment.

We'll see soon enough what 2023 looks like from a growth perspective.

 

[97prizm]

They could slow substantially and still be the fastest growing segment.

We'll see soon enough what 2023 looks like from a growth perspective.

Demand for electric vehicles, meanwhile, has chilled. The market is still expanding, but the pace of growth has slowed considerably. After growing 63% globally in the first half of last year, it rose only 49% in the same period this year, the Journal reported.

 

[Vercingetorix]

Demand for electric vehicles, meanwhile, has chilled. The market is still expanding, but the pace of growth has slowed considerably. After growing 63% globally in the first half of last year, it rose only 49% in the same period this year, the Journal reported.

Only rose 49% would be dream for most companies.

 

[nickaluch]

I don't think people would buy a car to power a house either. Having said that it might depend on the region. I can easily convert a gas generator to run on natural gas, which we have in the area, and eliminate the problem with gas stations not being able to pump gas. The generator can run days on end w/o the worry of having gas on hand.

When Sandy hit I thought the same thing until they cut off the natural gas for a few weeks

 

[nickaluch]

Sears the world's largest retailer for over the past 100 years is gone today. Not so long ago Sears stock was flying high, yet the truth was Sears was a very sick stock, and their stock share price didn't reflect how sick the patient was. Lots of money was made in the Sears stock action for many people. But in the end, the company was in fact failing.

Maybe GM is a buy- I can't see a single sign that GM has a long-term future in retail vehicle sales. And I sense the same for Ford. For either company to be in the retail vehicle business long term will take an exceptional once in a generation leader as the CEO. Until then, both GM and Ford are toast long term in the retail vehicle industry. Maybe they both will just be defense contractors in the following decade.... who knows.

My rental two days ago was a 2023 Chevy Equinance with 1100 miles. The pluses were (1) it had a analong audio jack available, (2) it had nice and simple climate control knobs. The drivetrain was beyond brutal- totally unacceptable. It provided zero confidence when the engine stopped while waiting to make a turn, that it would start in time to safely complete the turn. I think a 1974 Chevy Vega drivetrain provided more confidence.

On a plus note- I think the Chevy heavy duty trucks are well built and their simple design is awesome for a guy like me. But heavy duty trucks are not enough to keep GM in the retail vehicle business through the next decade.

You lost me with the 74 vega comparison