Originally Posted By: JHZR2
Well, Norfolk Southern is doing OK, right? CSX was taken over by them last, right?
What is your take in the cliffs notes style? Has the mighty Pennsylvania Railroad come full circle into something decent in Norfolk Southern, or are things on a permanent decline to failure again?
The decline of auto manufacturing has some analogy to that of the big eastern railroads. At its zenith, the PRR's operating budget was bigger than the US Government's. They were also massive economic titans that employed hundreds of thousands with enormous physical assets whose death spiral occurred slowly over decades. It was an ugly, painful process. By the end, the PC couldn't even maintain the roadbeds. The whole thing was on the verge of seizure. The government eventually quasi-nationalized the entire mess to prevent a total transport collapse. It then took decades to work it out. It cost the taxpayers billions. That industry, while much healthier today, is far from the gilded juggernaut it was during its golden era. There are still faded, run down monuments to the great PRR littered all around here. But it is back in private hands (mostly), and is a sustainable model.
When you have high employment sectors with strategic defense value, the government tends to step in and prop them up during their decline from dominance. It was impossible for US manufacturers to keep acting like it was 1960. There are too many competitors and other market forces at work now. I believe we're witnessing a managed downsizing of the sector, just like we did with the railroads 40 years ago. I don't think GM will ever have 50% market share or employ 500,000 again. But I'm not so sure that's such a bad thing for America. I'm sure GM will eventually recover in some form after the Gov't throws enough money at it, but never as it once was. And it will take longer than people think. If we must burn tax dollars, I'd rather see them go to domestic industry than to Iraqis and Afghans . Still, we should focus on encouraging/developing the next great economic sector. That's where the new jobs and economic growth will be found.
If there's any irony to this, the railroads may play a larger role in a greener, more energy efficient economy going forward.
I like the cliffs notes version better.