With 13% of the population this isn’t saying much. Some states have no Porsche dealers.
First Half California all-electric EV sales update
- Thread starter Snagglefoot
- Start date
Could not agree more. Take a look at this video. It's only 5:16, so it's a quick watch. It's amazing to me that people can get all the way through grad school with little understanding of how lending and personal finance work.
We are saying the same thing. CA buys a high percentage of the cars sold in America.
Saying a high percentage of Teslas are sold in CA makes sense; it is true for most makes.
I'm afraid that would make me cry. I talk to so many people about personal finance.
Sometimes o-workers and others ask me "what to do". It scares me as giving financial advice can be a no-win game.
I hate loans. I can do the math and see how making payments can be numerically better than paying off a loan, but I like removing uncertainty and sleeping.
I hate loans.
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More or less, market is getting saturated, those who wanted and could afford already bought them.
Same as when smart cell phones came out - there was steady growth in sales till most everyone got a smart phone to replace their older tech one.
At $500/month they're barely keeping up with the interest. Of course the payments will go on for (practically) forever.
If we assume monthly compounding, I think there's something wrong with the calculated interest rate. The formula for interest is I= PRT. Assuming monthly compounding, for the first month, substituting the terms (assuming a 8.69% interest rate) we get:
Interest = $70,000 (0.0869) (1/12) = $506.91. The first month, paying $500, they wouldn't even have paid the interest. And it would just gotten worse every month after that.
For monthly compounding, the interest rate must be something less than 8.57% which is the rate at which they would have broken even the first month. $70,000 (0.0857) (1/12) = $499.92
“Rich” “premium”
Hilarity. Have you seen the market? ICE included? Stripper cars are hen’s teeth and entry EVs cost similar money to similarly equipped cars.
With current interest rates I’m not buying out of principle. Unless good promotional rates come back at some point I’ll never finance a car again. There’s a reason I didn’t buy a new GTI this year.
I’ll pay myself the amount of what I feel a reasonable car payment looks like and see if I can manage to part with the money when I get there. I have a feeling that’s going to be no for awhile.
Except the market is growing. The growth rate is slowing - but its not contracting.
I agree however that its an excellent time to buy a used EV if you want an EV - the prices are very attractive. If I had a use for a EV I would buy a used model 3 right now.
"In the first half of 2024, the United States sold 7,892,786 new vehicles, which is a 2.3% increase from the same period in 2023. However, passenger car sales decreased 7.3% in June to 269,439 units, while SUV and truck sales decreased 1.9% to 1,074,653 units. Cox Automotive's chief economist, Jonathan Smoke, predicts that slow growth will continue through the end of the year due to market uncertainty."
You need to zoom out. Sure, we're up over the first part of last year, but the first part of last year was awful for a number of reasons, but primarily due to a severely depressed supply.
No, I don't need to zoom out. Its a simple equation. EV sales are down YoY while the rest of the market is up, YoY.
Contrary to what you said originally.
Vehicle sales in 2010 or 1965 is irrelevant to the topic at hand.
The fact that you think mechanisms of any market, yet alone the automotive market, is simple says all I need to know.
The only thing simple about this is this:
Domestic auto inventory levels - February 2023: 74,250,000
Domestic auto inventory levels - February 2024: 249,308,000
No one is shocked that there was growth from early 2023 to early 2024. It was artificially deflated. What's shocking is that it is 2.3%, when inventory levels were up 236%.
All SC is saying is the EV market rate of growth has slowed. The EV market continues to grow, just not as fast.
Statistically, 1 quarter, is a single data point in time; it does not make a trend.
The product growth curve is not a straight line and is affected by many things, as you mentioned.
Your the one that said the whole market is down. And I quote "The overall auto sales market is down."
Except the overall market is up unit wise?
If you want to discuss inventory - inventory matters if it a) constrains the market like in 2021 or b) forces producers to lower prices. Otherwise it doesn't matter. I believe (and I don't pay a whole lot of attention to this) that EV prices have fallen pretty drastically? Since the falling prices haven't had a commensurate increase in demand, its reasonable to conclude that EV demand is not very price sensitive - ie the price curve is very steep. Would seem to tie back into the luxury item discussion on this topic as well?
So the increase in supply is simply a production / planning imbalance. The planners didn't understand or didn't have good data on the price elasticity - not surprising, its a fairly new market. Increasing inventories which have lead to a decrease in price have not lead to an equivalent increase in demand, so here we are - with too much inventory.
If anything your high inventory claim proves the point that EV demand is drying up?
If the pool of eligible buyers goes from 8 million to 6 million YoY, but the number of sales slightly increases due to number of available units, I'm not going to sit here and claim that the market is "up". Which, by the way, is exactly what we've seen so far. We won't know the full data until 1Q25, but so far, this is what we've seen. Early reports from 1Q24 show auto loan rejection rates spiked, meaning the pool of eligible buyers has diminished. I'm also not sure what point you're trying to make here- those are nationwide auto inventories for all vehicles, not just EV.
Oh, and I thought I fairly expressly stated that EV demand is drying up. It absolutely is, for a number of reasons. Please go back to my first post and reread.
I understand what his point is, but I'm curious as to where he somehow misconstrued my first point where I stated, "I'm shocked that new EV sales have slowed. Shocked, I tell you.". Maybe I needed to add a "/s". There's no doubt that the EV market growth has severely slowed.
My SIL just bought a used 2020 Model 3 long range. He says he got it cheap.
They now have a Model 3 (his) and a Leaf (hers), both bought used. They also have an ancient VW Westfalia camper van for family vacations.
So here’s the largest issue with ev ownership that few are talking about: apartment dwellers will have a hard time owning one. Most apartment complexes will not invest thousands of dollars just to satisfy Gavin Newsom’s intimate demand that average Joe drives
a battery operated car.
a battery operated car.