By traditional leverage measures only the top 20% can “afford” the average new car given price and finance rates.
First Half California all-electric EV sales update
- Thread starter Snagglefoot
- Start date
I dont think they are turning against Tesla for those who want a sedan. I think that is Tesla's problem, stale product. Americans Love SUVs and if they want an EV SUV they will buy elsewhere.
I cant remember except limited cases someone said to me I want a new compact 4 door sedan
SO you have the performance "guys" buying them but the general public? Na, will drop them like a hot potato for SUV types. Look at the success of Kia/Hyundai and soon to be GM. It's already apparent as Tesla sales have been down every month this year in the USA over last year.
Wasn't the Model Y the #1 selling car in the world last year? It was #4 in America, right after the 3 pickups.I dont think they are turning against Tesla for those who want a sedan. I think that is Tesla's problem, stale product. Americans Love SUVs and if they want an EV SUV they will buy elsewhere.
I cant remember except limited cases someone said to me I want a new compact 4 door sedan
SO you have the performance "guys" buying them but the general public? Na, will drop them like a hot potato for SUV types. Look at the success of Kia/Hyundai and soon to be GM. It's already apparent as Tesla sales have been down every month this year in the USA over last year.
Let's face it If the ev buying public were a little smarter Teslas sales would have been way lower. Newer vehicles are coming online, every year for the last 11 years Musk swears that Teslas will be "fully autonomous ".
Rav4 was #4.
It's interesting that 10% of the Model Y sales were in California alone, and I'd venture to say half of those were San Francisco Bay Area/Silicon Valley sales.
When Sue and I drove from Denver to Indianapolis (I-70 to, I-80 back), Teslas were virtually nonexistent. When I'm visiting family in the Bay Area, Los Gatos and Saratoga in particular, half the cars on the road are Teslas.
FWIW,
Scott
Sounds good except for the “fuel savings” because we should add the coming EV road tax, and if we include fuel savings for EV’s we should include “ fuels saving” for little three cylinder cars. I vote to get rid of the fuel savings item entirely or at least add in battery depreciation up front.
4WD
$50 site donor 2025
There is one in my town of 12k - a PA from CA who works 8am to 4pm - Monday to Thursday …
Why are Tesla's sales down in the USA for the first 6 months this year? Isnt the company supposed to be growing instead of contracting? Wasnt that growth constantly championed by the CEO?
Who cares if it's the number 1 selling car they only offer few cars and have almost no product line up, hopefully they keep selling it or they go out of business.
But let's stick to the point, why are their sales down in the USA? I mean, Honda is the biggest motorcycle manufacturer in the world but Mopeds are considered motorcycles.
An example,
What is the better company selling more cars? As of right now the Model Y is a one hit wonder but with falling market share as a company, at least in the USA, where will the bottom be unless they come out with a car typical Americans want and assuming Americans will keep subsidizing at up to $11,000 per car.
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Let me add something else to my above comment. In 2023, China accounted for 456,000 Model Y sales. Between China and Silicon Valley I think it's safe to say AT LEAST 1/4 to 1/3 of total Model Y sales are in those two locations alone. It doesn't take a genius to conclude that the Model Y is for the elite class.
Scott
Right. Apply the tax credit and fuel saving (ie. the toggle)
Meh. The tax represents a fraction of the total cost of fuel. Batteries are warrantied mine 8yrs/100k miles. It's always worth comparing EV's with similar performing vehicles. A gutless 3-cylinder econobox has no business being compared to a Tesla like it has no business being compared to an Audi.Sounds good except for the “fuel savings” because we should add the coming EV road tax, and if we include fuel savings for EV’s we should include “ fuels saving” for little three cylinder cars. I vote to get rid of the fuel savings item entirely or at least add in battery depreciation up front.
I think CA buys 10% (or more) of all cars sold in America, so that makes sense. And more of the expensive cars...
There are 203 Porsche dealerships in the United States as of June 25, 2024. CA has the most number of Porsche locations with 31 dealerships, which is about 15% of all Porsche dealerships in the US.
We have Superchargers everywhere; when I zoom to our Petaluma place, there is 1 Supercharger location in town at a shopping center. And of course, Silicon Valley has the financial might to buy whatever they want. There are now over 6 Teslas on our street, Wedgewood Ave, 3 are Performance Models. Porsches, BMWs and that gorgeous MBZ across the street equipped with a dynamic handcrafted AMG 4.0-liter V8 bi-turbo engine. There's even a Ford Lightning around the corner.
I can't forget this one:
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Good points AG. Let's look a little deeper. Here's a few points to consider:Why are Tesla's sales down in the USA for the first 6 months this year? Isnt the company supposed to be growing instead of contracting? Wasnt that growth constantly championed by the CEO?
Who cares if it's the number 1 selling car they only offer few cars and have almost no product line up, hopefully they keep selling it or they go out of business.
But let's stick to the point, why are their sales down in the USA? I mean, Honda is the biggest motorcycle manufacturer in the world but Mopeds are considered motorcycles.
An example,
What is the better company selling more cars? As of right now the Model Y is a one hit wonder but with falling market share as a company, at least in the USA, where will the bottom be unless they come out with a car typical Americans want and assuming Americans will keep subsidizing at up to $11,000 per car.
View attachment 231031
- Growth is never a straight line, especially over time. Short term reductions are part of business.
- The Model Y is an expensive car compared to the other cars on that list; double the cost of the Corolla. Pretty good trick to outsell the Corolla with an expensive vehicle...
- Tesla was retooling for the Model 3 refresh.
- factory shutdowns resulting from ships from China to Europe being diverted away from the Red Sea due to attacks
- Germany plant week shutdown due to an arson attack
- competition is increasing...
Having spent most of my 71 years in Silicon Valley, and half of that in Los Gatos, I am fully aware of the area's wealth. California also has an EV mandate governor who lives and schools his children in Marin, which is even wealthier than Los Gatos.
The entire San Francisco Bay Area region from Petaluma to the north to Monterey to the south is one of the wealthiest regions on the entire planet. What irritates me is that many of the people who populate this region have a self righteous attitude. They think they know what's best for everyone else, including apartment dwellers who are scraping by paycheck-to-paycheck or the farmers in Kansas.
I find one of the most ironic things in the Bay Area was/is the commuter lane "Fast Passes" awarded to those who drove $$$$ EVs. If ever there were a more obvious statement that the elites are more important than their gardeners, housekeepers, or nannies; the Fast Pass commuter lane sticker was it.
Scott
To the vast majority of people performance is not that high on the list. You are right though Tesla has no business being compared to an Audi, there is no comparison in quality, interior, fit and finish, or the ride.
Yeah, there are plenty of uppity people here. But I see it more from the people who wear their BMWs, etc as jewelry and every other word is, my (insert-expensive-whatever). And those who seem to think only what they own is the best and everyone else is stupid.
Kinda funny you mention the Fast Passes for the commuter lanes. There were a lotta Civic hybrids being driven by the Silicon Valley execs when this first came out... And Prius, wow lotsa Prius.
Having said this, my point was CA buys the highest percentage of new cars in the nation, so your Tesla sales numbers would appear to fall in line.
The pricing bottom falls out of the used EV market and people are shocked that sales of new EVs have slowed dramatically?
Putting aside any preconceived notions about California or the majority of its population, many of those wealthy Californians aren't dumb. The exact opposite, rather, they got to where they are by being intelligent innovators and investors. Anyone with any financial sense knows that there's never been a worse time to buy a new EV.
There's better deals on used EVs if you are in the market for an EV. There's questions about future production of EVs as carmakers have started to back off their future electric plans. There's questions about the commitment to expanding and solidifying the infrastructure needed for large scale EV adoption as financial data has started to come out from companies owning/operating mass recharging stations.
I could keep going, but honestly, that's not even addressing the biggest issue right now which has nothing to do with the EV themselves. The overall auto sales market is down. Why? We've built our economy on cheap financing. Year over year wage growth has pretty much stayed consistent since 1960, but overall has actually declined slightly since 1980. In that time, home prices have increased at an YoY rate that exceeds wage growth. Same for higher education. All because demand has sky rocketed as we've kept interest rates lower than ever over a period of decades. Since 2002, the average interest rate over those 22 years has been lower than any other time since the FRED has tracked it, and by a large margin. In a market environment with rock bottom interest rates, that can be sustainable for a while. However, it's not resilient, which is what we're discovering now. Higher interest rates with elevated commodity prices have slowed down consumer spending. People don't have the wages to make up for the higher cost of financing, and on top of that, are already more leveraged than ever before.
What's really sad is that interest rates really aren't even that high, even today. Over the past 10 years, the average interest rate on the 60 month car note is up 3.67%. 30 year fixed mortgages are at an average of 6.77%, or 3 points lower than in July 2006 which was the peak of home buying before the housing market collapse. People just don't have the income to overcome this. In the meantime, they struggle with the loans they already have, which are at lower rates. Mortgage delinquencies are rising. Auto loan defaults are at 13 year highs. Credit card defaults are rising as the New York Federal Reserve data shows nearly 20% of Americans have maxed out their revolving credit lines and sit on a total of 17.7 trillion in credit card debt alone.
I'm shocked that new EV sales have slowed. Shocked, I tell you.
Putting aside any preconceived notions about California or the majority of its population, many of those wealthy Californians aren't dumb. The exact opposite, rather, they got to where they are by being intelligent innovators and investors. Anyone with any financial sense knows that there's never been a worse time to buy a new EV.
There's better deals on used EVs if you are in the market for an EV. There's questions about future production of EVs as carmakers have started to back off their future electric plans. There's questions about the commitment to expanding and solidifying the infrastructure needed for large scale EV adoption as financial data has started to come out from companies owning/operating mass recharging stations.
I could keep going, but honestly, that's not even addressing the biggest issue right now which has nothing to do with the EV themselves. The overall auto sales market is down. Why? We've built our economy on cheap financing. Year over year wage growth has pretty much stayed consistent since 1960, but overall has actually declined slightly since 1980. In that time, home prices have increased at an YoY rate that exceeds wage growth. Same for higher education. All because demand has sky rocketed as we've kept interest rates lower than ever over a period of decades. Since 2002, the average interest rate over those 22 years has been lower than any other time since the FRED has tracked it, and by a large margin. In a market environment with rock bottom interest rates, that can be sustainable for a while. However, it's not resilient, which is what we're discovering now. Higher interest rates with elevated commodity prices have slowed down consumer spending. People don't have the wages to make up for the higher cost of financing, and on top of that, are already more leveraged than ever before.
What's really sad is that interest rates really aren't even that high, even today. Over the past 10 years, the average interest rate on the 60 month car note is up 3.67%. 30 year fixed mortgages are at an average of 6.77%, or 3 points lower than in July 2006 which was the peak of home buying before the housing market collapse. People just don't have the income to overcome this. In the meantime, they struggle with the loans they already have, which are at lower rates. Mortgage delinquencies are rising. Auto loan defaults are at 13 year highs. Credit card defaults are rising as the New York Federal Reserve data shows nearly 20% of Americans have maxed out their revolving credit lines and sit on a total of 17.7 trillion in credit card debt alone.
I'm shocked that new EV sales have slowed. Shocked, I tell you.
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What do I take from your post? Personal finance needs to be taught in grade school. Lenders are preying on the uninformed.