First Half California all-electric EV sales update

[SammyChevelleTypeS3]

Almost the reason why CA has so many problems? Lack of mass transit?
Example, Texas has 30million people and only 7.8 million cars \
CA with almost 39 million and 14.2 million cars
New York 19.5 million people and 3.1 million cars

... cars totals are registrations as of 2021

View attachment 231481

Source - https://www.usnews.com/news/healthi.../cities-with-the-worst-air-quality-in-the-u-s

Dont forget all this stuff travels from west to east

What is really sad to me for Californians is the story I saw more than once. Story about how California was looking ahead and being innovative as they always have been. A massive subway system was built underneath sections of Los Angeles and I cant recall if it ever
got the chance to open ( stations etc were even installed) and then GM/Ford/Chrysler bought it and boarded it right up. Every now and then some cable channel will run a special documentary telling the whole story from building it with dreams to operated them similar to east coast cities but then killed off by a very few rich folks.

 

[slo town]

@Torrid , @slo town is a proud son of Los Gatos; he will be the 1st to tell you what a magical place it is. And he would be right.

Yes indeed, a beautiful town. I go so far back in Los Gatos that I remember parking with my girlfriends on the hilly parts on Shannon Road, which was out in the middle of nowhere and virtually undeveloped at the time. I had my first bicycle crash with injuries on Kennedy Road. Later in life Sue and I looked to buy our first home on Pennsylvania Ave - an old rundown victorian. Back in my much younger days those same victorians on Pennsylvania were occupied by biker gang drug dealers. No kidding! Over the decades I'd venture to say I've ridden my bicycles over 2 or 3 thousand miles just within the city limits of Los Gatos alone. I drank my first alcohol on the shores of Lexington Reservoir - sharing a glass gallon jug of Cribari Burgundy with friends. @JeffKeryk, Wedgewood didn't even exist back when I was a young lad riding my bikes. How times have changed. We left LG over 20 years ago but it still feels like home when I'm back there. Maybe one night I'll have to take Sue up on Shannon Road.

Scott

Edit: If you want to see the Los Gatos I grew up in, visit the Testarossa Winery and check out the pictures. I'd pay five figures to go back in time and ride one of my modern road bikes for just one weekend in the area I grew up in. The area was literally an ocean of orchards. I'll never forget the smell of springtime blossoms.

I used to ride for hours and hours with 3 or 4 quarters in my pockets...

This was a common sight...apricots EVERYWHERE!

 

[edhackett]

Almost the reason why CA has so many problems? Lack of mass transit?
Example, Texas has 30million people and only 7.8 million cars \
CA with almost 39 million and 14.2 million cars
New York 19.5 million people and 3.1 million cars

... cars totals are registrations as of 2021

View attachment 231481

Source - https://www.usnews.com/news/healthi.../cities-with-the-worst-air-quality-in-the-u-s

Dont forget all this stuff travels from west to east

Particulate matter doesn't make a good proxy for ICE vehicle emission. None of those cities have high particulate because of vehicle emissions. The central valley cities are primarily because of agricultural activities(dust and ag waste burning). Same for Eugene-Springfield + wildfire smoke. Medford-Grants Pass is mostly smoke. LA-Long Beach is due to the ports. In fact, any car 2010+(maybe older) with properly working emission controls driving in the LA basin is cleaning the air. Their tailpipe emissions are lower in particulate than the ambient air. LA would have smog even if there wasn't a single person or car present. The hydrocarbon emissions from the vegetation, trapped by the topography would create smog.

Ed

 

[BLND1]

Yup, and the best selling vehicles are full sized trucks, not cars like the Nissan Versa, Honda FIT and Toyota Yaris.

A lot of those truck sales are commercial, no?

 

[OVERKILL]

A lot of those truck sales are commercial, no?

Good question, not sure. Doesn't seem to be super easy to find a breakdown. It does appear that Light Commercial Vehicle sales globally is around 15 million units, while light vehicle sales is around 88 million, which includes personal use pick-up trucks.

 

[demarpaint]

Sadly, the people in your state don’t feel the same

That's true, it doesn't matter much but I think the majority of people on the island might agree with me.

 

[SammyChevelleTypeS3]

The only problems to me with EVs are taxpayers paying up to $11,000 for each EV vehicle made and sold in the USA.
Free country and free for all of us to feel what we feel, also free to vote the way we see fit. Majority rules.
I could care less about CO2 and air pollution most all our states on the mid to southern east coast are in far better shape than the west and not needed here. EV is optional for those who want it, I should not have to pay them to buy one.

@Torrid @slo town

Never sounds good when a company can only make it with a product they preach we MUST HAVE unless the are allowed grants and loans etc... from the government.

 

[wemay]

To the vast majority of people performance is not that high on the list. You are right though Tesla has no business being compared to an Audi, there is no comparison in quality, interior, fit and finish, or the ride.

You don't have to be an enthusiast to appreciate the difference between an economy car and a Tesla. It's much more satisfying to even the most mundane, open minded soccer mom/dad which are the folks I see driving Teslas around here.

 

[alarmguy]

That's true, it doesn't matter much but I think the majority of people on the island might agree with me.

Absolutely they agree with you.

 

[Snagglefoot]

I think we car people overthink this. For most people they decide they need a car , they go look at a few models, they buy the one with the best infotainment.

22% sounds about right for California. May go up a little but I bet not much. So many reasons people don’t want an EV are related to every day life. Live in apartment, take a few longer trips, etc mean ICE or hybrid is still the most common sense choice.

Imagine - people voting common sense with their wallet. Whoda thunk?

It will be interesting to see in the next few years. The powers to be, especially in California are expecting this number to be 100% by 2035, a mere 11 years from now. Plateauing at 22 to 30% would be stunning news for them, and a giant kick in the rear.

 

[Snagglefoot]

By the way, the so called rich folks who buy Tesla’s are also taking out the longest car loans, including those who live in their mom’s basement.

 

[SC Maintenance]

It will be interesting to see in the next few years. The powers to be, especially in California are expecting this number to be 100% by 2035, a mere 11 years from now. Plateauing at 22 to 30% would be stunning news for them, and a giant kick in the rear.

Normal. Head idiot in charge promises something 20 years away. They move along, new boss same as old boss - promises something another 20 years later. Diablo nuclear power station was supposed to close one reactor this year and one next. Now its 2030. When 2030 arrives it will be 2040. Same as always.

 

[alarmguy]

By the way, the so called rich folks who buy Tesla’s are also taking out the longest car loans, including those who live in their mom’s basement.

View attachment 235529

Great stats and not just because Tesla. Americans are like crack addicts to borrowing money for stuff they cant save money for.
A very smart American once said, "drive through any middle class neighborhood, the ones with the shiny new cars in the driveways will never be millionaires" "The stupidity of borrowing money for a depreciating asset"

Anyone needing or wanting a car loan for more than 48 months should re-evaluate their financial maturity and that is being generous, it should really be 36 months.

Automobiles have gone crazy in price, for one reason only, the majority will take on massive amounts of debit for stuff they have no business buying. We will never educate our kids in the country because we ourselves are addicts and there is no drive to teach this in high school and you can bet the business world will see to it that it never is.
We are self destructing and literally enslaving ourselves to banks, like a crack addict is to his dealer.

"Human beings are defective"

 

[Brons2]

May I propose a third option? They are running out of rich people who can afford one of these premium cars. If someone comes out with a no frills option that has heat and AC and a sound system of some kind and sell it at a low price, I bet the numbers will change drastically.

EVs have never been more affordable.

Had a dealer offer me a lease on a VW ID.4 with a near $50K sticker for $333 a month, 10k miles/yr. That's roughly $11K and change to lease a $49K car for 3 years. Probably throw it back at the end and see what the latest in technology is at that point.

A Tesla Model Y rear wheel drive is $37,490 out the door after the tax credit, plus TTL. That's less the the average price of a new ICE car, for the most popular EV in the world.

About the ID.4: I didn't pull the trigger, because, the Boss is away on business at the moment. But I haven't shut the door on it.

 

[SC Maintenance]

EVs have never been more affordable.

Had a dealer offer me a lease on a VW ID.4 with a near $50K sticker for $333 a month, 10k miles/yr. That's roughly $11K and change to lease a $49K car for 3 years. Probably throw it back at the end and see what the latest in technology is at that point.

A Tesla Model Y rear wheel drive is $37,490 out the door after the tax credit, plus TTL. That's less the the average price of a new ICE car, for the most popular EV in the world.

About the ID.4: I didn't pull the trigger, because, the Boss is away on business at the moment. But I haven't shut the door on it.

Your paying $11K to drive a car 30,000 miles, so 37 cents per mile - just for the car.

Thats a lot per mile, they just framed it well.

 

[Vercingetorix]

Great stats and not just because Tesla. Americans are like crack addicts to borrowing money for stuff they cant save money for.
A very smart American once said, "drive through any middle class neighborhood, the ones with the shiny new cars in the driveways will never be millionaires" "The stupidity of borrowing money for a depreciating asset"

Anyone needing or wanting a car loan for more than 48 months should re-evaluate their financial maturity and that is being generous, it should really be 36 months.

Automobiles have gone crazy in price, for one reason only, the majority will take on massive amounts of debit for stuff they have no business buying. We will never educate our kids in the country because we ourselves are addicts and there is no drive to teach this in high school and you can bet the business world will see to it that it never is.
We are self destructing and literally enslaving ourselves to banks, like a crack addict is to his dealer.

"Human beings are defective"

It sometimes makes sense to finance. This is free money.

0.9% APR* for 60 months OR $3,500** Customer Bonus​

APR offer for well-qualified customers.

*0.9% APR, no down payment required, available on new, unused 2024 Atlas models financed by Volkswagen Credit through participating dealers. Example: For 0.9% APR, monthly payment for every $1,000 you finance for 60 months is $17.05. Not all customers will qualify for credit approval or advertised APR. Offer ends September 3, 2024. Offer not valid in Puerto Rico. See your participating Volkswagen dealer for details or, for general product information, call 1-800-Drive-VW. ©2024 Volkswagen of America, Inc. **Volkswagen of America, Inc. will apply a $3,500 Customer Bonus when you lease or purchase a new, unused 2024 Atlas through participating dealers from July 2, 2024 to September 3, 2024. Bonus cannot be combined with discounted Volkswagen Credit Special Lease or Special APR Programs, or on Fleet or Dealership Sale Program vehicles. Bonus applied toward lease or purchase and is not redeemable for cash. See your participating Volkswagen dealer for details or, for general product information, call 1-800-Drive-VW. ©2024 Volkswagen of America, Inc.

 

[alarmguy]

It sometimes makes sense to finance. This is free money.

0.9% APR* for 60 months OR $3,500** Customer Bonus​

APR offer for well-qualified customers.

*0.9% APR, no down payment required, available on new, unused 2024 Atlas models financed by Volkswagen Credit through participating dealers. Example: For 0.9% APR, monthly payment for every $1,000 you finance for 60 months is $17.05. Not all customers will qualify for credit approval or advertised APR. Offer ends September 3, 2024. Offer not valid in Puerto Rico. See your participating Volkswagen dealer for details or, for general product information, call 1-800-Drive-VW. ©2024 Volkswagen of America, Inc. **Volkswagen of America, Inc. will apply a $3,500 Customer Bonus when you lease or purchase a new, unused 2024 Atlas through participating dealers from July 2, 2024 to September 3, 2024. Bonus cannot be combined with discounted Volkswagen Credit Special Lease or Special APR Programs, or on Fleet or Dealership Sale Program vehicles. Bonus applied toward lease or purchase and is not redeemable for cash. See your participating Volkswagen dealer for details or, for general product information, call 1-800-Drive-VW. ©2024 Volkswagen of America, Inc.

Yeah, I get that, sometimes but do remember you paid an extra $3,500 for the car to get that low interest rate and after 5 years that $3,500 sitting in a 5% savings account then you paid an extra $4,500 for the low interest rate.

 

[Brons2]

Your paying $11K to drive a car 30,000 miles, so 37 cents per mile - just for the car.

Thats a lot per mile, they just framed it well.

That's not really an EV point though. You'd pay just as much or more for a similar lease on an ICE car of similar value, which due to the slow EV sales. I doubt you could get a similar value ICE car for that cheap on a lease. I definitely could not purchase the car for this low of a cost.

What would you suggest is a low cost vehicle? Obviously something 10 years old with 150K is going to cost a lot less, but do you actually want to drive it? That's what I'm doing now with the Navi and I'm tired of it.

I'm not into economy penalty boxes, I'm tall, so you can throw out all the Elantras, Civics, Corollas, etc. Similar with the smaller size crossovers like the Rav4 and CR-V.

 

[alarmguy]

That's not really an EV point though. You'd pay just as much or more for a similar lease on an ICE car of similar value, which due to the slow EV sales. I doubt you could get a similar value ICE car for that cheap on a lease. I definitely could not purchase the car for this low of a cost.

What would you suggest is a low cost vehicle? Obviously something 10 years old with 150K is going to cost a lot less, but do you actually want to drive it? That's what I'm doing now with the Navi and I'm tired of it.

I'm not into economy penalty boxes, I'm tall, so you can throw out all the Elantras, Civics, Corollas, etc. Similar with the smaller size crossovers like the Rav4 and CR-V.

Yeah I tend to think in here when others bring up the price of a Tesla, Well heck, the most popular yes but its not a luxury car and to me the ID4 is far more superior as far as luxury. So they are really two different vehicles. One main stream and one upper tier mainstream.
Tesla is NOT a luxury car, ID4 blows it away.

Ok, now I gotta go finish washing the house before the sun gets to the other side *LOL*

 

[Brons2]

It sometimes makes sense to finance. This is free money.

0.9% APR* for 60 months OR $3,500** Customer Bonus​

APR offer for well-qualified customers.

*0.9% APR, no down payment required, available on new, unused 2024 Atlas models financed by Volkswagen Credit through participating dealers. Example: For 0.9% APR, monthly payment for every $1,000 you finance for 60 months is $17.05. Not all customers will qualify for credit approval or advertised APR. Offer ends September 3, 2024. Offer not valid in Puerto Rico. See your participating Volkswagen dealer for details or, for general product information, call 1-800-Drive-VW. ©2024 Volkswagen of America, Inc. **Volkswagen of America, Inc. will apply a $3,500 Customer Bonus when you lease or purchase a new, unused 2024 Atlas through participating dealers from July 2, 2024 to September 3, 2024. Bonus cannot be combined with discounted Volkswagen Credit Special Lease or Special APR Programs, or on Fleet or Dealership Sale Program vehicles. Bonus applied toward lease or purchase and is not redeemable for cash. See your participating Volkswagen dealer for details or, for general product information, call 1-800-Drive-VW. ©2024 Volkswagen of America, Inc.

Total of payments if you forego the $3500 and take the 0.9, on the cheapest Atlas available on the same dealer lot I visited, is $43290. If you drive it 100K that is 43 cents per mile, plus gas and maintenance, and what's it worth as a trade in or private sale at that point?