Originally Posted By: Astro14
Originally Posted By: IndyIan
What do you think about autonomous drones, perhaps interspersed with human controlled ones? Isn't that the final step in air combat?
With enough of them, wouldn't visual or radar or infrared contact is easy to establish at close enough range, even with an F22? The drones all communicate with each other and decide how to deal with a known target while maintaining a solid defense.
I assume the US as well as China is working on this like mad. They may end up almost like a 2 stage rocket, basically a slower efficient section to increase flight time and range, wrapped around an air to air missile.
This isn't as simple as people believe...you can automate simple processes...but it's not easy to automate complex decision-making in response to tactical situations...even with networked machines.
Autonomous drones are great in a strike role: simple objectives and complex, but executable algorithms to handle anticipated threats/responses.
Part of your problem is the assumption that all targets are "known"...but in fact, in air to air combat, nothing is known until the first contact...your drone has no situational awareness until it, or the other drones, have a sensor contact. When they first get a sensor contact, they have to decide what to do...and the threat airplane(s) get a vote in that situation...so the drone may, or may not, respond appropriately.
This is why US pilots win air-air engagements with 80-0 kill ratios against pilots who are following ground control instructions (think Gulf War)...the pilots who are following doctrine and responding to thinking from outside the cockpit are slower to respond, and have less SA, than those in the situation, making decisions based on training, experience, and judgement. Those Iraqi pilots were trained to fly fighters, and taught to follow instructions...a good drone simulation, don't you think?
Except the Iraqi's didn't have 10 or 20 to 1 numbers? Basically the idea is to have more drones in the air than the enemy has missiles.
I was kind of thinking they would operate like a swarm of wasps or bees defending their nest. More aggressive and self sacrificing the closer you are to their assets, but they seem to know not to all go after you at once if you retreat. They don't have to make perfect desicions, just semi reasonable to make them a deterent or dangerous in large numbers.
Perhaps its too technically difficult to make a cheap vehicle that could operate at a reasonable speed for air defence or offence against modern fighter jets? Air to air missiles seem to have the electronics to take down a jet in a small package, but its getting a cheap simple launch vehicle in range that is the problem.
