EV's dime a dozen? I think everyone and his brother will be making them.

[alarmguy]

I kind of suspect this is how it will turn out, not saying I am right just my personal belief from an investment point of view;

1. EV's are more simple to manufacture than ICE much like "toy" remote control cars and trucks, entry into the field will be much easier than it was with ICE vehicles. For propulsion all you need is an electric motor and controllers that can be easily made by anyone and batteries. Put it together in a package and your in the EV business. After all current EV's do not generate their own power, it stores power generated off location.

2. Vehicles with ICE much more complicated and they generate their own power, much more labor intensive, entry into the field is one big wall and why the status quo for decades. If H2 vehicles come to market I suspect even though they will generate their own electricity it will still be more simple to manufacture than in ICE vehicle.

3. Just like the new Chinese brands and the new American brand Tesla it's going to be a whole new ball game for 20 to 35% of vehicle production 10 years down the road which I think will be electric. Those electrics will come from anyone who can put a package together.

Which leads me to wonder who is next, except to know the Chinese already have multiple brands rolling out of factories. (I have no idea what they are)
To the speculation of the Apple car in a joint venture.

To the now factual joint venture of Honda and Sony = "Sony Honda Mobility"
The paradigm shift has started and I suspect its going to be wonderful for the consumer. Almost anyone will be able to undercut anyone else in price around 10 years or less, also lets not forget the giants in the ICE industry and electronics industry arent going to sit back and do nothing.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/sony-honda-sell-electric-cars-2025

 

[measureman]

I think there will come a day when you will need a permit to drive an ICE car and it will be limited to car shows and parades.
50 years from now maybe?

 

[alarmguy]

I think there will come a day when you will need a permit to drive an ICE car and it will be limited to car shows and parades.
50 years from now maybe?

I think, much like now, cars will get "Vintage" status, like you say, permit to operate on roads.
But in 50 years, the public will want whatever is convenient. I suspect in 20 years or less, electric motor vehicles will have solved the problem of supplying power for the EV so you don't have to be inconvenienced, once that happens ICE will go away.

The part the public is kidding themselves about is fuel for EVs whether it is H2 or Electric from a utility is not going to be any cheaper than gasoline which except for the Ukraine war and coming out of Covid gasoline is cheap taking into account inflation and much less of the Americans family budget than it was 5 decades ago. Heck, except for me and a few others I dont here anyone saying, WOW my electric bill is cheap when it comes in every month. Yeah, just wait till they start buying fuel is mass numbers from their electric utility!

I love listening to the media and even posts in here complaining about the price of gas, yet its pretty much in line with inflation and none of the above is ever brought up because it doesnt make a good "story".
What no one takes into account is the taxes over the last 5 decades they allowed to be added to their gas purchases in their location. Im still paying around 425 to 440 a gallon even after all the world events. Not a bad deal when it was $1 a gallon back in the 1970s. Heck a few years back I paid $1.29 for a short period of time which was NuTs.

 

[supton]

Eh. My guess? Making an ICE is probably child's play compared against designing a car to crump properly in the event of a crash, crash avoidance, vehicle stability and figuring out how many cup holders to have.

Without a doubt I do see all the players switching to EV, but I just don't see more upstarts coming into the field. Its a really high bar to pass, to raise the capital to make cars that can be sold here in NA.

 

[Gyro Gearloose]

This from Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/business/au...-challenges-with-ev-battery-shift-2022-06-16/

VW US Chief Scott Keogh estimated that the United States is making 150,000-200,000 batteries a year and that seven years from now "we need to be making 8.5 million batteries" annually.

"This is a scale of investment that honestly is going to make the industrial revolution look like a cake walk. It's massive," Keogh said.

After all this time it's still the batteries.

 

[wpod]

EV aren't simple.

 

[alarmguy]

EV aren't simple.

Hmmmm... I dont know, I am just going by what CEOs and others in the industry say. Much less labor costs, much less labor needed and lower overall costs. This is what I mean by simple, its why Tesla has high profit margins, widely accepted.
Also, I can see a day, just like any modern electronics where secondary suppliers manufacture the components only to be put together by the actual car manufacturer. More or less a major electric motor manufacturer can wholesale motors to many manufacturers, stamping out motors like postage stamps.
This is what I mean by simple, simple for the manufacturers. Electronic makers will be working with the vehicle makers producing the electronics.

 

[alarmguy]

Eh. My guess? Making an ICE is probably child's play compared against designing a car to crump properly in the event of a crash, crash avoidance, vehicle stability and figuring out how many cup holders to have.

Without a doubt I do see all the players switching to EV, but I just don't see more upstarts coming into the field. Its a really high bar to pass, to raise the capital to make cars that can be sold here in NA.

I agree on the actual vehicle frame, I just wonder into the future how much of everything else will be outsourced. AS I posted above this post.
Heck, this might be a big stretch but who knows if vehicle frames will be universal for some cheap vehicles as the motor and components will cost the same but a mass produced crash compliant frame can also be out sourced.

SO much of even present day vehicles are outsourced as it is. Most dont know much of the interiors of cars are outsourced, including the door panels. So yeah, maybe you can have some basic vehicle produced cheap because most materials will be outsourced except for the programming of the computers. Heck, maybe that is too.

 

[wpod]

The Ev certainly wont have the cost of meeting emissions and the warranties.

 

[alarmguy]

This from Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/business/au...-challenges-with-ev-battery-shift-2022-06-16/

VW US Chief Scott Keogh estimated that the United States is making 150,000-200,000 batteries a year and that seven years from now "we need to be making 8.5 million batteries" annually.

"This is a scale of investment that honestly is going to make the industrial revolution look like a cake walk. It's massive," Keogh said.

After all this time it's still the batteries.

Yeah, crazy and I think people think to narrow. I believe EVs will make their own electricity using H2. Just a tiny batter will be used.
Costs will come down and vehicle will be filled up SUPER conveniently at your local gas station, the oil industry is huge, deep pockets, I think they will find a way for cheap fuel cells, I cant seem them closing down.
and ... my god, all these batteries and waste and pollution, never mind the horrible conditions the miners work in these other countries mining the materials, funny how no one cares until they pretend to care.

 

[SHOZ]

I think it will be decades before ICE cars are gone. No infrastructure currently for massive conversions to electric.

 

[measureman]

This from Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/business/au...-challenges-with-ev-battery-shift-2022-06-16/

VW US Chief Scott Keogh estimated that the United States is making 150,000-200,000 batteries a year and that seven years from now "we need to be making 8.5 million batteries" annually.

"This is a scale of investment that honestly is going to make the industrial revolution look like a cake walk. It's massive," Keogh said.

After all this time it's still the batteries.

We need to get the Aliens that are visiting us to show us how to make cold fusion. Bob Lazar says they have it,but we cant reproduce it because the technology is way beyond our capabilities kind of like getting Edison to make a cell phone.

 

[SHOZ]

Nicola Tesla's hidden patents will save the day!

 

[eljefino]

Like was said the barriers to entry regarding emissions should be lower. We worry about tailpipe emissions but don't really have the regulatory infrastructure in place to ensure without a doubt that the battery chemistry is properly handled at end-of-life. So there's a sweet spot right now. There's a similar one in many states WRT road/ fuel taxes but that can be changed with a pen stroke.

Companies can license tech from each other. If you read an ad for a 1910 luxury car it will brag about who made the speedometer, the upholstery, the coachwork, the lights. If you go RV shopping this very day you'll find the same companies make all the propane water heaters, toilets, generators etc. It wouldn't be too hard for an upstart company to start making Tissan Pine Needles and getting the $7500 federal tax credit until they sell X vehicles.

It's technologically feasible to govern electric cars to 55 mph during high energy demands/ brownouts. Elian already gave his car owners an "extended range" over-the-air update during a Florida hurricane to allow them leeway to get out of town. The opposite of usefullness can just as easily happen.

My work had these dumb "Gem" mini-trucks that were electrified Kei trucks. They sucked! One of the worst things though was that the frames rusted away to nothing. Ford, GM, and Dodge have pretty much figured out how to make something last 10-15 years on our roads. They have some built-in obsolescence but few glaring problems. The upstarts are going to have to relearn these lessons.

 

[CKN]

EV aren't simple.

They are very simple with 90% moving parts-compared to ICE counter parts.

 

[CKN]

I think it will be decades before ICE cars are gone. No infrastructure currently for massive conversions to electric.

You are correct. Just like their was zero infrastructure for ICE vehicles in the early 1900's.

 

[JohnnyJohnson]

Imagine if you will less than half the moving parts, way less cost to assemble and bring prices equal to upper midrange gas cars! At 78 plus years of age I don't think I'm going to have indulge myself in one of these! But I'm just patiently waiting for the oil questions on these!

 

[bullwinkle]

I’m still wondering why USPS hasn’t tried to electrify the Grumman LLV? They would require a new frame (they’re currently on rusty S-10 frames) and associated battery & motor tech. I know they’re not really big enough for package deliveries, but if there was EVER an application to test urban EV tech, they would be the best thing to try it on-short trips, low speed, back at the PO every night! Why not??

 

[SHOZ]

You are correct. Just like their was zero infrastructure for ICE vehicles in the early 1900's.

Do you think we will be fully capable in 10 years? Illinois is going short on electricity this summer and hardly any electric cars.. And just how many Gigawatts does it take to replace 135 billion gallon of gasoline? And what about all the oil based chemicals?

135,000,000,000 gallons = 15,390,000,000,000,000 BTU = 4,510,364,400,000 KWHs

https://www.calculateme.com/energy/gallons-of-gas/to-btus/

 

[Vercingetorix]

Do you think we will be fully capable in 10 years? Illinois is going short on electricity this summer and hardly any electric cars.. And just how many Gigawatts does it take to replace 135 billion gallon of gasoline? And what about all the oil based chemicals?

135,000,000,000 gallons = 15,390,000,000,000,000 BTU = 4,510,364,400,000 KWHs

https://www.calculateme.com/energy/gallons-of-gas/to-btus/

Electric cars are roughly 80% efficient vs 20% for gasoline cars.