China has a big problem that hardy anyone talks about, their decades of one child policy is finally bearing fruits. They have an aging population problem that cannot be easily and quickly fixed. So I would not bank on China that much.
Except robots.
They don't need legions of workers, just to keep bringing in the rice paddy exports that are willing to be schooled and live in community dorms.
This will change, but it will take another few dozen years.
Do bank on China, nobody else has the same combination of tech, just in time industry geographic alignments, low BOM, and labor cost. They've already proven this in so many other sectors, why would automobiles be any different unless there are massive tariffs, that also impact all the other goods we get from them? It's a balancing act, and the scales always tip in the favor of who has access to more lower cost battery materials, and lower construction costs. Early entry in market was just a bubble in the long term radar.
The only obstacle to China dominating pretty much all consumer goods at this point is tariffs. Note I wrote consumer, professional applications still demand a better QC in many cases. I take that back, Chinese citizens are noticing their disparities, but I don't see a revolution any year soon?
India could step up their game except they seem to keep having the philosophy that it's better to try to lie through marketing rather than improve product quality. Perhaps I have overgeneralized, but that's the trend I've seen and I'm not going to argue about it, just state that nobody I know, would buy an Indian made product at the same price point, but they could change that if they wanted to.
It's all about exploiting the citizens to get materials and labor cheaper. Dangle education in front of the right people and they will work their way out of a bad life, and that's not all bad, but it is bad for the US where people aren't so desperate.
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