Dr. Doom-Utah based PhD states vehicle prices to collapse

[SC Maintenance]

You might want to take a second look at what I posted. I didn't say whatsoever housing prices didn't increase relative to money printing. This what I posted verbatim:

"not sure home prices have really rose as much as discussed when printing of the USD is brought into the mix."

Yes, and I asked how are you measuring money printing - which you have not answered.

I showed a few traditional money measures in my post - and it seems that housing has either risen as much or more than the money printing, by those measures.

So what measure are you using when you say housing prices has not risen as much relative to printing of USD? I am curios.

 

[Brons2]

Video production from a PhD in behavioral sciences, former nationwide auto broker, thesis is vehicle prices to collapse.

A few notes from his video:

- buyers of new vehicles that can afford new vehicles are so turned off from they way they have been treated by new car dealerships during and post Covid that they have no interest in dealing with a new car dealerships during and have zero loyalty to new car dealerships

- repossessions having doubled in 2025 when compared to 2023

-Toyota, the bell weather for new model introductions, having waiting list for these newly updated models, instead have these models on the lot sitting unsold

- he expects a rash of new car dealership bankruptcies

I went through a broker when I got my Lightning. I agree with this, super turned off by the dealership process. I'm not ever going back to dealerships so they can run their playbook on me and waste my time.

Broker fee was $499 but it was the best experience ever. Leased a $66K truck for $299.96/mo, never set foot in the dealership, paid an extra $375 to have it delivered to my house from the dealer location 4 hours away. Showed up on Christmas Eve at 5PM, Merry Christmas to me. Put all the gifts in the frunk and headed to my sister in laws house about 90 minutes after it showed up in my driveway.

Could I get this same deal with enough time and footwork? Maybe. Is it worth $499 to me to not have to do the legwork and sink the time into it? Absolutely. To me, one should always consider the value of their time.

Watched the whole video. I'm sure the dealership took it in the pants on my Lightning. Sorry not sorry. The OEMs have to wake up. People don't have this kind of money.

 

[macarose]

If you really want to figure out what will be going in a freefall, then just follow this guide.

1. Declining sales (the worse the better.)

2. About to become defunct, or already is. Nobody wants to buy a lame duck.

3. Anything small, cheap and EV. The Nissan LEAF in my garage is entering Chinese scooter territory when it comes to resale value.

4. Cheaper than dirt leases in the recent past. Some cars only sell new because the manufacturer was forced to dump them for dirt cheap. Like my #%#%#$#!!! Nissan LEAF.

5. Gas prices. When they're high the unpopular big trucks and SUVs get knee-capped. When their low... my poor, poor Nissan LEAF becomes a rolling version of leprosy.

6. Dents, dings, scuffs, scratches, scrapes, true miles unknown. not actual miles, salvage, rebuilt, rebuildable, total loss, vehicles with airbag deployments, flood history, water intrusions, any vehicle with the interior smell of a sewer rat or unfiltered Lucky Strikes, biohazard vehicles, methed up interiors, and my personal favorite, the bonded title.

 

[CKN]

I went through a broker when I got my Lightning. I agree with this, super turned off by the dealership process. I'm not ever going back to dealerships so they can run their playbook on me and waste my time.

Broker fee was $499 but it was the best experience ever. Leased a $66K truck for $299.96/mo, never set foot in the dealership, paid an extra $375 to have it delivered to my house from the dealer location 4 hours away. Showed up on Christmas Eve at 5PM, Merry Christmas to me. Put all the gifts in the frunk and headed to my sister in laws house about 90 minutes after it showed up in my driveway.

Could I get this same deal with enough time and footwork? Maybe. Is it worth $499 to me to not have to do the legwork and sink the time into it? Absolutely. To me, one should always consider the value of their time.

Watched the whole video. I'm sure the dealership took it in the pants on my Lightning. Sorry not sorry. The OEMs have to wake up. People don't have this kind of money.

They were also selling (leasing) a vehicle that has minuscule sales. Which of course now they have "pulled the plug on". (Pun intended) .

 

[GON]

I went through a broker when I got my Lightning. I agree with this, super turned off by the dealership process. I'm not ever going back to dealerships so they can run their playbook on me and waste my time.

Broker fee was $499 but it was the best experience ever. Leased a $66K truck for $299.96/mo, never set foot in the dealership, paid an extra $375 to have it delivered to my house from the dealer location 4 hours away. Showed up on Christmas Eve at 5PM, Merry Christmas to me. Put all the gifts in the frunk and headed to my sister in laws house about 90 minutes after it showed up in my driveway.

Could I get this same deal with enough time and footwork? Maybe. Is it worth $499 to me to not have to do the legwork and sink the time into it? Absolutely. To me, one should always consider the value of their time.

Watched the whole video. I'm sure the dealership took it in the pants on my Lightning. Sorry not sorry. The OEMs have to wake up. People don't have this kind of money.

Thanks for sharing your positive buying experience with the broker. I suspect I would copy your strategy if buying a new vehicle.

The million dollar question- how long will you keep the Lightning?

Currently, I have three Ford F350s, and one Lincoln Navigator. I have discovered over the years, and clearer over the years two things about Fords built in this century:

• Ford makes a lot of changes/ revisions to a lot of parts in their trucks
  • Ford is quick to discontinue specific part production/ support
  • Ford might have a dozen different configurations for a simple model year part- such as an exterior mirror
• Some of the Ford discontinued parts are proprietary and don't offer aftermarket solutions
  • Some parts are designed so poorly, every part from that model year fails- so salvage yard pulls are not an option

Things seem more than a bit out of control in Fords manufacturing/ parts process. Ford appears to fail this century at the "keep it simple" when it comes to vehicle parts. Dozens of different parts/ assemblies/ part numbers that accomplish the same task, but the parts often are not interchangeable.

I just read an article of a 2016 F250 owner who had his driver side exterior mirror broken in a parking lot. The replacement mirror is discontinued by Ford. Ford made hundreds of thousands of F250/F350 from 2011-2016, why Ford couldn't figure out how to support parts for these trucks is ming numbing. Maybe I need to get a reality check, these trucks are now over ten years old.

I am starting to stock parts for my 2019 F350. I will be buying/ hording brand new headlights, OEM seat covers, steering wheel, and a list of other parts.

 

[Brons2]

Thanks for sharing your positive buying experience with the broker. I suspect I would copy your strategy if buying a new vehicle.

The million dollar question- how long will you keep the Lightning?

Currently, I have three Ford F350s, and one Lincoln Navigator. I have discovered over the years, and clearer over the years two things about Fords built in this century:

• Ford makes a lot of changes/ revisions to a lot of parts in their trucks
  • Ford is quick to discontinue specific part production/ support
  • Ford might have a dozen different configurations for a simple model year part- such as an exterior mirror
• Some of the Ford discontinued parts are proprietary and don't offer aftermarket solutions
  • Some parts are designed so poorly, every part from that model year fails- so salvage yard pulls are not an option

Things seem more than a bit out of control in Fords manufacturing/ parts process. Ford appears to fail this century at the "keep it simple" when it comes to vehicle parts. Dozens of different parts/ assemblies/ part numbers that accomplish the same task, but the parts often are not interchangeable.

I just read an article of a 2016 F250 owner who had his driver side exterior mirror broken in a parking lot. The replacement mirror is discontinued by Ford. Ford made hundreds of thousands of F250/F350 from 2011-2016, why Ford couldn't figure out how to support parts for these trucks is ming numbing. Maybe I need to get a reality check, these trucks are now over ten years old.

I am starting to stock parts for my 2019 F350. I will be buying/ hording brand new headlights, OEM seat covers, steering wheel, and a list of other parts.

I will probably turn the Lightning back in at the end of the lease, because most likely it will not be worth the $46K residual for an XLT trim. I would imagine also that the long term software support of this truck will not be great now that it is discontinued. The one thing the Lightning does have going for it parts availability wise is that it's based on an ICE F150 and many hard parts that are not related to the battery or traction motor systems are the same as any F150. Especially on the interior, for all practical purposes there are few differences between an Lightning and a gas F150 on the interior.

I came from a 2010 Lincoln Navigator and I found the parts support to be pretty good, and it needed a lot of parts! I do agree that they made tons of revisions to parts and for that reason often it was best to get the Motorcraft part so you got the latest revision. But you had to do the legwork to make sure that you got the latest part, dealers were all too happy to sell you the older parts revision.

I know the brake booster was one thing for my Navigator that was discontinued, and I needed one. I had to get a reman through a local parts house. But then for some reason Ford brought them back, you could even get them through Rock Auto, and at a reasonable price at that. I guess there were enough failures in the field to make it profitable for Ford to produce them.

In tech we have something called "Software Development Lifecycle" or SDLC. Maybe Ford needs to have a PDLC, "Parts Development Lifecycle" and actually publish it to customers. Then we could really have an idea about long term support.