Dr. Doom-Utah based PhD states vehicle prices to collapse

[GON]

Video production from a PhD in behavioral sciences, former nationwide auto broker, thesis is vehicle prices to collapse.

A few notes from his video:

- buyers of new vehicles that can afford new vehicles are so turned off from they way they have been treated by new car dealerships during and post Covid that they have no interest in dealing with a new car dealerships during and have zero loyalty to new car dealerships

- repossessions having doubled in 2025 when compared to 2023

-Toyota, the bell weather for new model introductions, having waiting list for these newly updated models, instead have these models on the lot sitting unsold

- he expects a rash of new car dealership bankruptcies

 

[SC Maintenance]

Well I bought my last three new but my next will be used.

There are too many dealers but the used dealers aren’t any better in general. There are exceptions for both of course.

In the end most buy because they need a car not want a car. So we shall see. People already are keeping cars a long time.

 

[rijndael]

I bought 3 cars since COVID, one was used. My experience was about the same as before, it took too long from start to finish, but it was "fine" overall.

 

[racer12306]

The last brand new car we bought was in 2004. Since then, slightly used has been the go to.

2007 Caliber, about 1-2 years old with mileage in the teens
2012 Town and Country 1.5 years old with about 19k
2016 Focus, 1-2 years old with mid 30s
2017 Pacifica, 1.5 years old with mid 30s
2019 Ram, less than a year with 8800 miles
2024 Wrangler, less than a year with 5000 miles

I bought 3 cars since COVID, one was used. My experience was about the same as before, it took too long from start to finish, but it was "fine" overall.

Yes, the process sucks. On our Wrangler, we had the whole thing worked out before we even left the house (northern MD) and we were still at the dealer for a couple hours after we got there (DC Metro-Virginia). Why??

 

[joekingcorvette]

A new Rav 4 hybrid in 2024 which we kept and a new Maverick in 2025 purchased around October 15. In my case I purchased the Maverick to replace my aging Honda Civic and the Rav 4 was purchased to replace our Jeep GC limited which had 85,000 miles and it was getting a little "aged" being a 2014 model. People will still buy new vehicles for various reasons since they really are basically a consumable product. Problem is too many people finance them and end up having problems making the payments. Others pay cash and never have a problem and others finance them and have no problems making the payments.

 

[MrHorspwer]

Here's the same channel predicting the same crash 11 months ago:

"There is no doubt that the car market crash of 2025 is underway"

 

[rijndael]

It sounds like the same people who've been predicting a stock market crash/correction. If you predict it often enough you'll eventually get it right.

I worry more about grocery store prices than car prices.

 

[Lubener]

Gloom and doom for some, opportunity for others.

 

[Hohn]

Here's the same channel predicting the same crash 11 months ago:

"There is no doubt that the car market crash of 2025 is underway"

What's the old line about 5 of the last 2 collapses being predicted?

He's probably overstating the case, but I think directionally he's not wrong. The current market is in a massive bubble and has been for awhile.

 

[SC Maintenance]

What's the old line about 5 of the last 2 collapses being predicted?

He's probably overstating the case, but I think directionally he's not wrong. The current market is in a massive bubble and has been for awhile.

I would think that as well but the numbers don't align.

I can give you links if anyone is interested, but 2 things of note - New car sales have been steady at 16M / year for about 3 years, Used car prices at Manheim dropped some in 2022 but have been very steady for the last 2 years.

I do find this pretty odd so the only thing I can offer is with a 12 year old fleet - people buy cars when they need to - not because they want to? Almost impossible to survive without a car except maybe in the biggest of our cities.

I would guess car sales in general will follow whatever the economy does overall - just like always.

 

[Pablo]

Here's the same channel predicting the same crash 11 months ago:

"There is no doubt that the car market crash of 2025 is underway"

Yep poop thread

 

[maraakate]

Here's the same channel predicting the same crash 11 months ago:

"There is no doubt that the car market crash of 2025 is underway"

Won't watch any of these videos with their obvious clickbaity and soy boy reactionary title cards.

 

[maraakate]

Yep poop thread

You mean some random YouTuber is trying to farm engagement? Say it isn't so!

 

[andrew_j]

I don’t really care about dealerships. When one goes bust another one who does it better will pick up the pieces for a bargain and hopefully fix the shortcomings business wise in the model. Natural evolution of business.

 

[SubieRubyRoo]

I’ve bought my last 4 vehicles thru Carvana and sold 2 vehicles to them. Their descriptions and defects in each vehicle were spot on and 100% truthful, and the buying process is so streamlined it takes less than 20 minutes for everything to complete the purchase.

On the vehicles I sold to them, not only was their sight-unseen appraisal offer more than generous, I actually made money back on one of the vehicles I bought from them a year and a half before!

With how clean, simple, and efficient the Carvana process is, I’m never going back to another dealership for any vehicle purchases. There’s no slimy, pushy salesmen; no scummy finance manager; no shady “add-ons” or sneaky ways they’re stealing additional money from you.

Conventional car dealers can wither and die for all I care, but no offense to any members who work there. There are some good people at dealerships but unfortunately they are the microscopic minority.

 

[IndyIan]

I guess there are some bad dealerships, but for people buying $50-60k+ vehicles, I think there is enough gravy to go around for everyone to be reasonably happy? Everyone I know that's getting something like that, seemed to be happy with a bit of an extra kick on their trade-in, or a free extra year of warranty? I think the one exception is Toyota, they are still sold out here and don't seem to budge on price, or give the customers anything extra?

We bought a new ski-doo this fall from a Bombardier Rec Products big volume dealer and the sales guy didn't waste time, in like 30s on the phone he took 5% off msrp, when I mentioned their might be a rebate later, and cut the BRP suggested delivery and inspection fees almost in half too, just for asking what they could do. Ok sounds great, where do I sign. Another unit sold for him, no drama, or time wasted.
And our machine was pretty much the cheapest thing in the show room, and they were moving out $40-50K+ side by side, pairs of $20k ski-doos, and everyone there had a big smile on their face.

 

[gman2304]

I’ve bought my last 4 vehicles thru Carvana and sold 2 vehicles to them. Their descriptions and defects in each vehicle were spot on and 100% truthful, and the buying process is so streamlined it takes less than 20 minutes for everything to complete the purchase.

On the vehicles I sold to them, not only was their sight-unseen appraisal offer more than generous, I actually made money back on one of the vehicles I bought from them a year and a half before!

With how clean, simple, and efficient the Carvana process is, I’m never going back to another dealership for any vehicle purchases. There’s no slimy, pushy salesmen; no scummy finance manager; no shady “add-ons” or sneaky ways they’re stealing additional money from you.

Conventional car dealers can wither and die for all I care, but no offense to any members who work there. There are some good people at dealerships but unfortunately they are the microscopic minority.

This! I sold my 2019 Silverado to Carvana for a great price and the only person to person contact was when I got to our local Carvana and the person on duty drove it around the block and came back and handed me the check. I don’t see myself ever driving onto a “ car lot “ and having to deal for hours with a deceptive lying piece of carbon again.

 

[Arc]

I would think that as well but the numbers don't align.

I can give you links if anyone is interested, but 2 things of note - New car sales have been steady at 16M / year for about 3 years, Used car prices at Manheim dropped some in 2022 but have been very steady for the last 2 years.

I do find this pretty odd so the only thing I can offer is with a 12 year old fleet - people buy cars when they need to - not because they want to? Almost impossible to survive without a car except maybe in the biggest of our cities.

I would guess car sales in general will follow whatever the economy does overall - just like always.

In 1980 it was about 15 million units sold, same as today even though the population is growing. Probably why we are seeing the consumer being pushed away from repairing their vehicle. When I saw circuit boards in the tail lights being controlled by several other modules I knew we were at their mercy. From here on out all they have to do is keep the consumer from having the right to repair.

 

[SC Maintenance]

In 1980 it was about 15 million units sold, same as today even though the population is growing. Probably why we are seeing the consumer being pushed away from repairing their vehicle. When I saw circuit boards in the tail lights being controlled by several other modules I knew we were at their mercy. From here on out all they have to do is keep the consumer from having the right to repair.

Average age in the 90's was around 8 years, and now its over 12, accounting for the lower new car sales.

I can totally believe there trying to push it back to 8 - win for them.

 

[zzyzzx]

In the end most buy because they need a car not want a car.

Got a link to support that?

I mean, sure for people here, but for the type of people who don't use thus or similar forums, I'm not sure. I mean listening to CarEdge and similar YouTube channels even during the vehicle shortage there seemed to by plenty of people who were buying new vehicles just because that's what they did periodically, and they had no need for a new vehicle.