Okay, but the fact remains that CR is probably the best data we have access to.I simply pointed out the fallacies in the CR reporting.
And I did not know we were arguing; we were discussiog.
Regarding assumptions, you have to challenge them. See where the model leads you. And then make it better.
In my experience, models take years to develop and have to change to be of real value.
My only assumption was, everything is wrong.
It was you who brought up your career experience in modeling outcomes and I merely responded to what you posted in pointing out that assumptions are everything in any model.