April lubricants industry market update.

[melk]

July 11, 2026

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran said it considers the Strait of Hormuz closed once again after a vessel using an ‘unauthorized route’ was struck by a warning shot in the critical waterway, further jeopardizing the already tenuous ceasefire agreement with the United States.

U.S. Central Command said a short time later that its forces began a third round of strikes against Iran.

“The United States is imposing a heavy cost by continuing to degrade Iran’s ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships freely transiting the strait,” the military said.

A Cyprus-flagged container ship struck by Iran suffered “significant engineroom damage” and a civilian crew member is missing, U.S. Central Command said.

Senior U.S. officials had previously said in Washington that negotiations to further cement last month’s deal to end the war will be unable to progress without the strait being secure — and had even said they expected Iran to offer public statements to that effect.

Instead, the Revolutionary Guards Corps stated in an online post on Saturday that Iran launched warning shots at a “violating ship.” Iran further reported that the strait would now remain closed until further notice.

 

[tired]

“The United States is imposing a heavy cost by continuing to degrade Iran’s ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships freely transiting the strait,” the military said.

How many times have we won this war? I've lost count now. So much winning.

 

[OS4A]

Tail wagging the dog? Who's the dog and who's tail?

Not hard to figure out.

 

[loneryder]

I saw a report that Qatar is the largest exporter of base oils. Their huge production plant is on the shore of the Strait. It was extensively damaged by you know who. The parts they need for repairs are on long back orders or wait lists. That is the problem they have to get back up and running.

 

[Rollno07]

I saw a report that Qatar is the largest exporter of base oils. Their huge production plant is on the shore of the Strait. It was extensively damaged by you know who. The parts they need for repairs are on long back orders or wait lists. That is the problem they have to get back up and running.

As per the new reports; they need 6 months to start production and 2 years to reach MAX CAPACITY!

 

[Foxtrot08]

As per the new reports; they need 6 months to start production and 2 years to reach MAX CAPACITY!

It’s my opinion that we are at the end of the beginning of this.

At this point, it will be Q4 2027 / Q1 of 2028 before things level off again. It won’t be pricing, but availability of product. Base oil prices stopped aligning with crude oil prices a bit ago. Retail is still lagged vs wholesale prices by about 60-90 days. So we will probably see further retail price increases.

However, the big question going into the foreseeable future here, is simply availability of product. Those who have non-gulf state produced base oils vs those who relied on gulf state produced base oils.

Then we have the crude availability question on top of that, which hasn’t been settled out yet. We still have normal seasonal refinery disruption for turn around. We will have refineries running different crude supplies, which will disrupt production metrics. Along with all the other input questions which directly impact outputs. As well, this is a global issue, not just for the U.S.

There’s not much to update for June, as it was simply price increases. But July will probably be the month that true supply disruption begin to impact the market place.

 

[SC Maintenance]

At some point prices will create demand destruction. Probably not in this country, but elsewhere that have lower levels of disposable incomes.

If it got really bad even here fleets and such could simply go from 5K OCI to 6K OCI, etc - and save a bunch of oil.

 

[hemioiler]

At some point prices will create demand destruction. Probably not in this country, but elsewhere that have lower levels of disposable incomes.

If it got really bad even here fleets and such could simply go from 5K OCI to 6K OCI, etc - and save a bunch of oil.

There are still guys doing 3000 mile intervals at home. Heck here in Canada some shops try to get you sign into 5000 km (3100 mile) intervals and many fall for it because they don't realize the "age old wisdom" was 5000 miles, not kms.

 

[CleanSump]

There are still guys doing 3000 mile intervals at home. Heck here in Canada some shops try to get you sign into 5000 km (3100 mile) intervals and many fall for it because they don't realize the "age old wisdom" was 5000 miles, not kms.

The "age old wisdom" was 3k miles from the pre-synthetic days. The 5k miles for syn "wisdom" is 21st century.

 

[melk]

July 13, 2026

U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday that the United States is “reinstating” a blockade on Iran in the Strait of Hormuz and will charge other ships for safe passage, escalating a struggle for control over the critical waterway after mutual attacks in recent days. The U.S. military said it will resume its blockade of Iranian ports on Tuesday at 4 p.m. EDT.

 

[hemioiler]

The "age old wisdom" was 3k miles from the pre-synthetic days. The 5k miles for syn "wisdom" is 21st century.

Wow. I'm not proud of it (well, I'm proud of the engine) but my poor grand prix/3.8 saw a few OCI's well into 20k kms on dino oil. Didn't seem to hurt it either since it reached almost 400,000 kms before being totaled.

 

[CleanSump]

Wow. I'm not proud of it (well, I'm proud of the engine) but my poor grand prix/3.8 saw a few OCI's well into 20k kms on dino oil. Didn't seem to hurt it either since it reached almost 400,000 kms before being totaled.

Yeah, common "wisdom" doesn't always seem so written in stone. But the express lube places will stick with trying to get more return business.

 

[Rollno07]

It’s my opinion that we are at the end of the beginning of this.

At this point, it will be Q4 2027 / Q1 of 2028 before things level off again. It won’t be pricing, but availability of product. Base oil prices stopped aligning with crude oil prices a bit ago. Retail is still lagged vs wholesale prices by about 60-90 days. So we will probably see further retail price increases.

However, the big question going into the foreseeable future here, is simply availability of product. Those who have non-gulf state produced base oils vs those who relied on gulf state produced base oils.

Then we have the crude availability question on top of that, which hasn’t been settled out yet. We still have normal seasonal refinery disruption for turn around. We will have refineries running different crude supplies, which will disrupt production metrics. Along with all the other input questions which directly impact outputs. As well, this is a global issue, not just for the U.S.

There’s not much to update for June, as it was simply price increases. But July will probably be the month that true supply disruption begin to impact the market place.

I agree but problem currently is that there is 190% increase in cost of Fully Synthetic products and there is roughly 50% increase taken yet buy Distributors becuase of having OLD Stocks and thing that situiation will get better and they will take serious HIT when they ask for NEW PRICES but the retail prices have raisen only 10% or even low... Mechanic is not ready to buy a case of 6 Qts for $40 was he was buying it at $38. So the problem is Retail Prices and where distributors margins are getting squeezed.

 

[amateurbob]

It’s my opinion that we are at the end of the beginning of this.

At this point, it will be Q4 2027 / Q1 of 2028 before things level off again. It won’t be pricing, but availability of product. Base oil prices stopped aligning with crude oil prices a bit ago. Retail is still lagged vs wholesale prices by about 60-90 days. So we will probably see further retail price increases.

However, the big question going into the foreseeable future here, is simply availability of product. Those who have non-gulf state produced base oils vs those who relied on gulf state produced base oils.

Then we have the crude availability question on top of that, which hasn’t been settled out yet. We still have normal seasonal refinery disruption for turn around. We will have refineries running different crude supplies, which will disrupt production metrics. Along with all the other input questions which directly impact outputs. As well, this is a global issue, not just for the U.S.

There’s not much to update for June, as it was simply price increases. But July will probably be the month that true supply disruption begin to impact the market place.

I apologize if you already mentioned this but is your opinion that prices will drop to a more reasonable level or be at higher equilibrium in Q1 of 2028?

 

[Foxtrot08]

I apologize if you already mentioned this but is your opinion that prices will drop to a more reasonable level or be at higher equilibrium in Q1 of 2028?

They will be higher than they are now. But “stable.”

Retail has several rounds of price increases to go through before they reach the same amount of increase that wholesale & base oils have.

You figure product costs since March have gone up ~225%. Which, retail was always substantially higher than wholesale. So they had some padding. But they’re going to eventually make that padding up again. It’s just a matter of when.

 

[Foxtrot08]

I agree but problem currently is that there is 190% increase in cost of Fully Synthetic products and there is roughly 50% increase taken yet buy Distributors becuase of having OLD Stocks and thing that situiation will get better and they will take serious HIT when they ask for NEW PRICES but the retail prices have raisen only 10% or even low... Mechanic is not ready to buy a case of 6 Qts for $40 was he was buying it at $38. So the problem is Retail Prices and where distributors margins are getting squeezed.

Retail certainly has a lot of pricing to make up vs wholesale / distributors. I expect several more rounds to happen at retail to get back to the normal margin amounts.

That being said. If a distributor isn’t taking price increases / didn’t pass them on. That’s kinda on them.

 

[loneryder]

As per the new reports; they need 6 months to start production and 2 years to reach MAX CAPACITY!

The most important part that they need is on a two year wait list. There are only two companies in the world that make it.

 

[tired]

The most important part that they need is on a two year wait list. There are only two companies in the world that make it.

What part is it? You think they’d be willing to pay any amount to skip the line.

 

[loneryder]

What part is it? You think they’d be willing to pay any amount to skip the line.

My memory did not serve me well. My info was on LNG and it's by product helium....not base oil. Apologies. Helium is manufactured as a by product of LNG production and requires special separators that are manufactured by two companies that have a 2 yr backup of orders. It's a very complicated process. Qatar is the number one producer of LNG and Helium. Google uses for helium and it will surprise you what it is used for.